Why is Willem II of Orange Surviving Such An Underused POD?

HJ Tulp

Donor
As the title says, I can't help noticing that there are very few (if any) TLs where this happens. Also, what would be the long term consequences of him surviving? Both in the Netherlands and abroad?

@pompejus @Valena @Parma @Janprimus @HJ Tulp

Well, they are pretty huge. You butterfly away the Stadholderless period(s) for one. Personally I am of the opinion that if Willem II survives he will not only be able to gain even more power than his predecessors but that could very well be able to make sure that power gets dynastically secured. Just as Willem IV would do in the 18th century.
 
Surviving Willem II may mean different Anglo-Dutch war for starters. I've designed the proto-TL with this premise once, but got bogged down in research, as the consequences would be quite large.
He was going to take the power via military coup in OTL, when he died. The consequences of the thing being successful would be quite large.
 
9I agree, it is a very interesting POD. However since the men died at a young age at 25 and just three years in power it give way to many speculations and scenario's.
He was married with Mary Stuart thus direct lineage with he English King. As a high Noble he had enormous ambitions and likewise a spending drift as a real king.
I do have a few idea's.

Short term; alliance with France against Spain, possible ending in a same alliance with the Commonwealth even Cromwell was the murderer of his father in law.
(Dynastic schemes in Europe are ruthless, even it sounds unlike you ally you self with a murderer of the father of your wife)
Re-opening of the war in the Southern Netherlands and over seas.
Making the state finances of the Dutch Republic weak, not sure if this have negative effect on the economic growth of the Republic, it seems there was a economic crisses after the Peace of Westphalia, so it looked if the (land) war was beneficial for the economy. the war at sea probably is negative if the Dutch loses the upper hand.
Increase of the State army and moderate increase improvement of the navies, at least not as ambitious as under Johan de Witt.
Best guess the war will be ending as in OTL in 1659.
William II is more aggressive as is father Frederick Henry, how ever also less tolerant towards Catholics. The Military campaign in the Southern Netherlands would be more a war of conquest and submission than a kind of liberation as under his father. Which can be causing resistance for the future in the South.
William II neutralized the Bicker and the Graaff factions who opposed his father in gaining more power in the Republic, preventing with financial aid to the Hapsburg, the conquest of important cities in the South as Antwerp, Ghent and Oudenaarde.
Even slower as expected I do think William II can manage the conquest of large parts of the Southern Netherlands. Possible the Southern Netherlands will be divided as agreed in 1632 or, depending on the out come of the military campaigns, in a more traditional manner, by the borders of the counties, fiefs and duchies.
I suggest France would get Artois, Chambrai, Luxembourg, while William II would get entire Flanders, Brabant, entire Hainout, Limbourg and Namur.
Possible exchange or increase of trade post in Asia and the Atlantic at the expense of the Spanish. Possible peace treaty with Portugal were the Portuguese will size large parts of Brazil back the the Dutch as they proposed, but rejected by Johan de Witt, who in stead agreed with a large sum of money ( which never came).
William II Orange Nassau would act and behave as a real monarch, how ever the resistance within the Republic to elevate him a a real monarch would be to great.

Long term.
If William II would live longer it is very likely there will be more children. On the other hand it would be possible they will not survive child hood, the same can be siad about his eldest son (OTL) William III which had a weak health and had asthma.
The 17th and early 18th century wars between the Dutch Republic, Dutch war 1672-1678, Nine years war 1688-1697 and the War of the Spanish succession were more or less a consequence of the the be trail of Louis XIV by Johan de Witt. At least that is how Louis XIV viewed the sudden opposition organised by Johan de Witt after Louis XIV smashing success of invading the Spanish Netherlands and Loraine. Leaving Louis XIV with a rather poor result at the peace Aix la Chapelle 1668, compared with the territorial gains his army made in the war.
Since the Southern Netherlands were divided it is most likely Louis XIV would focus on Loraine and other (Spanish) Hapsburg possessions surrounding France rahter than nible parts of the the now larger Dutch Republic which is still an ally.
No doubt there will be tensions raising in the second half o the 17th century, but this will be due to the economic success of the Dutch Republic.The economic success would no doubt be still happening, since the state structure would prevent any absolute power for William II, unless he want to risk a civil war, which ruins his coffers.
Most likely the Dutch Republic would evolve in a kind if symbioses between a wannabe Monarch and a council of Patricians which, even opposed to each other also needed each other.
Centralisation of the Republic could go a bit faster due to this domestic power struggle. Due to the fact that Antwerp and Flanders and Brabant are part of the Republic and will be part of the State General and not be a subdued territory. ( other wise they will revolt in a few years) the power of Holland and Amsterdam would be a bit watered down, whill be in favour of all other Provinces as well.
 
Why is it such an underused POD? Because it is part of Dutch history, which is mostly unknown outside the Netherland, since generaly speaking people don't care about the Netherlands (It is not a cool enough country, I guess).
And if I am honest, also I don't think it is something many Dutch people know about. Most of Dutch history usualy focuses on either general history (life in the Roman age, life in Middleages, life during the industrial revolution) or later history (WWII). The only reason I know of Willem II is not because of school, or populair Dutch history on television, but because I am interested in history and read it in a comic book about history.

So since most people either don't know about it or care about it, it is ignored. Even though it can be a POD that will change all of Europe. Actualy it is a POD of an (I fear abandoned, although I do still do some work on it) unposted timeline of mine.

Anyway I do agree with some points Parma made. An alliance with France and an attack on the Southern Netherlands is likely. I disagree with his borders though. Personaly I believe the Netherlands would get Ostend, Bruges and Ghent and the areas north of it (including Antwerp), while France get everything south of it (including Brussels and Mechelen). This is roughly the border the Dutch and France agreed over in the middle of the 17th century, before they became enemies. So yeah, France would get the larger part of the southern Netherlands, including a large part of the Dutch speaking parts. If the alliance between France and the Netherlands holds, or at least does not turn into an animosity for more than a century like OTL, I think France ould not persue the Rhine border it wanted so much for security. Since the borders of France are secure. It is no longer surrounded by Habsburgs after all. That said, OTL France was pretty secure in the 17th century too (Spain was no longer the major power it once was and Austria had no say in most of the HRE), so the "natural border" was simply an excuse for expansion.

Willem II and the Oranges would act more and more like kings, although I am uncertain they would actualy end up as kings. Willem II would probably get more children than just Willem III OTL. So places like Moers and Lingen would remain part of the Dutch republic (or at least closely connected to it).
 
Probably because no one is ready to take on the work of determining and replacing the Hanoverian impact on Britain, Europe and the New World.

I'm not sure this is entirely accurate. There are enough Stuart survival TLs floating around.

Why is it such an underused POD? Because it is part of Dutch history, which is mostly unknown outside the Netherland, since generaly speaking people don't care about the Netherlands (It is not a cool enough country, I guess).

Well, then those people who think the Netherlands isn't a cool enough country/don't care about it, should go optiefen, IMHO.
Possible the Southern Netherlands will be divided as agreed in 1632

I'm unaware of this proposed/agreed division. Would care to explain?
 

HJ Tulp

Donor
I'm not really sure that there will be a joint Frano-Dutch invasion of the Southern Netherlands in the short-term. Willem II's control of the Republic wasn't secure to say the least. He needs at least a decade or two for that to happen.
 
In the long term a question is the glorious revolution. Would the Dutch still play a major part or more specially William III
 
That is true but thus if it’s not in the cards. Then it will have effects on the British and their standing and growing empire in the long long term
 
Before we get to the Glorious Revolution and carried away with that idea, in most sources I've encountered, James II's fascination with Catholicism is rooted during his exile. First in France and then serving in the Spanish army. If Willem II were to survive, I imagine the Stuarts would remain welcome at the Dutch court and James might even wind up serving in his brother-in-law's army, would he not? Or have I got this arse-backwards?
 
Before we get to the Glorious Revolution and carried away with that idea, in most sources I've encountered, James II's fascination with Catholicism is rooted during his exile. First in France and then serving in the Spanish army. If Willem II were to survive, I imagine the Stuarts would remain welcome at the Dutch court and James might even wind up serving in his brother-in-law's army, would he not? Or have I got this arse-backwards?

I can see the Stuart brothers staying there instead of France at least for the first half of 1650ies (which is James' coming of age period).
 
I can see the Stuart brothers staying there instead of France at least for the first half of 1650ies (which is James' coming of age period).

So might it remove James' conversion almost entirely? I mean, sure, if he hooks up with Anne Hyde and is still married to her etc (not a given since Henrietta Marie and the Princess of Orange were against the match), Anne may convert, but lacking the "interest" of OTL, Jamie might not follow suit?
 
I don't know a ton about Dutch internal politics of this time but the consequences for foreign policy would definitely be very interesting.
 
I don't know a ton about Dutch internal politics of this time but the consequences for foreign policy would definitely be very interesting.

Agreed. I wonder how the Stuarts will see the Nassaus if Wim sides with Cromwell rather than the regents. OTL Charles I wasn't mad about the match for his eldest daughter, especially since Marie de Medici played a role in arranging it. And I imagine that Cromwell's price of alliance will be similar to Britain's price for peace with France at Utrecht (that the French kick out the Old Pretender). Cromwell, IIRC, couldn't impose such a condition on a larger power such as France, but I could definitely see him trying to throw his weight around with a more middling power like the Dutch.
 

HJ Tulp

Donor
Agreed. I wonder how the Stuarts will see the Nassaus if Wim sides with Cromwell rather than the regents. OTL Charles I wasn't mad about the match for his eldest daughter, especially since Marie de Medici played a role in arranging it. And I imagine that Cromwell's price of alliance will be similar to Britain's price for peace with France at Utrecht (that the French kick out the Old Pretender). Cromwell, IIRC, couldn't impose such a condition on a larger power such as France, but I could definitely see him trying to throw his weight around with a more middling power like the Dutch.

Why would Willem side with Cromwell? Don't forget he is half Stuart himself.
 
Why would Willem side with Cromwell? Don't forget he is half Stuart himself.

Willem II, not William III.

alliance with France against Spain, possible ending in a same alliance with the Commonwealth even Cromwell was the murderer of his father in law.
(Dynastic schemes in Europe are ruthless, even it sounds unlike you ally you self with a murderer of the father of your wife)
 
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