Without American ground forces any Commonwealth invasion of Europe is out of the question. No Sicily, no Italy, and sure as hell no France. While you're at it forget Greece to. The Commonwealth ground forces didn't have the numbers of divisions and can't sustain the attrition rates. By 1944 the British were breaking up some divisions to provide replacements for others. The UK was scraping the bottom of the manpower pool.
Why is Germany Declaring War on America?
- Thread starter Moss
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Derek Pullem
Donor
Disagree. Assume Italy as main Commonwealth land contribution and this releases the troops designated for Overlord. Without the attrition in NW Europe the Italian front could be maintained.
It's a maximum effort by the Commonwealth to support the Soviets in this scenario and it is just about do-able (as opposed to a Commonwealth invasion of NW Europe which is not). The confined area of operations works for the Commonwealth as well as the Germans here. Also likely that Indian troops will be more heavily mobilised both for Italy and in SE Asia (assuming Lend-Lease still operates).
Vichy neutrality requires them to fight all comers. A beaten Afrika Korps and Italians being driven out of Libya with the commonwealth forces in hot pursuit is a perfect opportunity to prove they mean it. The Mareth Line might be poorly maintained, but it's a formidable defence if you're in full flight and low on supplies.
Vichy can allow them in, breaching the armistice and opening themselves to attack from the commonwealth. Or they can refuse entry.
Or they can say - you're very welcone to be interned here, at your leisure until Germany and Italy can transport you home [1].
Now, Darlan and Petain can bargain the internees for returning forced labourers, POWs and increased troops, and they might even allow German and Italian air transports to collect them, or maybe Italian ships [1]. The alternative is a long walk to Spanish territory (sorry, the USA won't provide oil for transports), and hope the Spanish can ship or fly them home without any Gibraltar based subs noticing. Oops, sorry, did we accidentally broadcast the timetable in clear across the whole Med?
[1] I'm pretty sure that transports repatriating interned troops are legitimate targets, so Vichy won't be vounteering, and Darlan won't send his fleet out to bring back Germans and Italians.
Meanwhile Germany was all peachy and didn't have to conscript teens or people over 40 at all. [/s]
I'm with @Derek Pullem : without Overlord the commonwealth should have sufficient manpower to take Sicily and invade Italy.
Derek Pullem
Donor
????
Are you talking about Indian Army in general or service in Europe?
Famously the Indian Army was all volunteer (no conscription). Three divisions and a Ghurka brigade fought in Italy - this could have been increased at some difficulty but it could be done.
Maybe manpower but the US bring a lot more than just warm bodies to the party
Also Sayeth commonwealth can invade Italy if they dnt do overlord, what's the long term plan. You not going to liberate Europe from the Italian peninsula, and even OTL the Italian invasion was always done knowing a landing in north western Europe was coming,
so even if it can be done how does it fit into a long-term strategy for defeating Hitler?
I think they were being sarcastic
Derek Pullem
Donor
As I said before it's a stretch to imagine but if the ASB made it so that US only fought directly against Japan, then Italy becomes UK's way of trying to keep Soviets fighting and not doing a deal. A bit like the Peninsula War against Napoleon. It was never going to defeat Napoleon by itself but the fact that the British and Spanish were taking back land from Napoleon encouraged Russia and Austria and Prussia to stay in the fight in 1813
I see your point (and agree about the ASB). I guess the problem I see is that I think the USSR will also see the lack of the US in Europe and that will effect their judgements.
If the US aren't part of the Italian invasion I'm not even 100% sure the Italian's will surrender as quickly, and the UK and Co will be relatively easy to bottle up in southern Italy.
The air campaign over Germany will be less severe with out the USAF and as well as having less direct effect will also draw less German resources to fight against it.
Ultimately I don't think Britain would risk getting caught in a meat grinder it wouldn't look likely to win here, not if the pay off is only maybe it keeps the USSR in the war
also while yes there were no issue with the Commonwealth and Empire volunteering in huge numbers, they might also be thinking hard before providing the majority of the warm bodies here for the meat grinder as well.
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The US is not 'taking'. Think of it as protective custody
Not entirely true. as Darlin told the US Ambassador in the Spring of 1942: 'If you come with three divisions we will fight you, if you come with twenty we will join you. Operation TORCH came with ten Allied division and the French split, some fighting the Allies, some swiftly joining them, and some disintegrating in confusion. Darlin received the direction from Petain that if the Allies did invade he was to negotiate with them rather than make a pointless & using fight. Unfortunately both sides botched the early negotiations.
Petains actions earlier in the year indicate he was thinking long term and saw the best case for France in a eventual Allied victory. Its unfortunate Admiral Leahey was not able to create a better condition ahead of it. My proposal for a Neutral US occupation of Neutral French colonies is towards the other limit of probability, but its still a goal to reach for.
That was very funny. Vichy had no interest in provoking a fight with the Axis if for no other reason than mainland France was held hostage. When the Germans did fly into Tunisia the French put up no significant resistance. The top Vichy leaders Marshal Petain & Pierre Laval were far more sympathetic to the Axis & fascistic ideology than to the Anglo/Americans and Liberal Democracy. With no Torch landings in their rear BR 8th Army might have to face the whole OTL Axis force that was put into Tunisia. What made Rommel's defeat at 2nd El Alamein final was the Torch landings. Without them the back and forth fighting in North Africa would just go on.
My favorite story of Hitler declaring war on the US, was one of Hitlers top advisors in tears begged Hitler and his top command showing him numbers of US industrial production capability not to declare war on the US, and he got laughed out of the room saying those numbers were “gross exaggerations.”
His advisor shot himself the next day, and it turns out his numbers were way off. They were a gross underestimation of U.S industrial capacity.
His advisor shot himself the next day, and it turns out his numbers were way off. They were a gross underestimation of U.S industrial capacity.
Without the U.S. 8th & 9th Air Forces the Luftwaffe's fighter force wouldn't have been crushed along with the destruction of the German synthetic oil industry. The shortage of fuel put the whole German war machine into a death spiral that could only end in total defeat.
This would've resulted in a very different military situation for the reich in the later years on the conflict. Not only would they have more experienced pilots, but they would've had the fuel reserves to properly train new ones, instead of the laughable training they recieved otl. This will definately have considerable impact later on in the war.
Well thats sort of it isn't it? The French would go whatever way the wind was blowing. Although if the US is seeking to essentially steal the entirety of the French Empire, I'm not so sure they would just sit there. Perhaps they would, but after mers el kebir, and now this, I think it might tip the scales for Vichy to fight. Not saying for sure that would happen. Merely stating it could be the last straw.The US is not 'taking'. Think of it as protective custody
Not entirely true. as Darlin told the US Ambassador in the Spring of 1942: 'If you come with three divisions we will fight you, if you come with twenty we will join you. Operation TORCH came with ten Allied division and the French split, some fighting the Allies, some swiftly joining them, and some disintegrating in confusion. Darlin received the direction from Petain that if the Allies did invade he was to negotiate with them rather than make a pointless & using fight. Unfortunately both sides botched the early negotiations.
Petains actions earlier in the year indicate he was thinking long term and saw the best case for France in a eventual Allied victory. Its unfortunate Admiral Leahey was not able to create a better condition ahead of it. My proposal for a Neutral US occupation of Neutral French colonies is towards the other limit of probability, but its still a goal to reach for.
Derek Pullem
Donor
Oil campaign didn't start in earnest until May 1944. Soviets were just about to launch Bagration and the Lvov offensive in the South. The oil campign would not have made any significant difference to the outcome of these operations. Post Bagration it is a question of when not if the Soviets win.
There will be more reserves transferred from West with absence of American threat in NW Europe but these will just delay the inevitable. I think my estimate of a 12 moth+ delay in ending the war is generous to Germans.
Some - they will still need to defend against Bomber Command and Bomber Command dropped half the tonnage on oil sites (and if wiki is to be believed the more effective half too)
I think that's very generous, because I don't think an x month delay of the US declaring war to Germany will translate to a x month delay of deployment of US ground and air forces in Europe. Simply because they needed to be built up first before they could be deployed. And also because they're going nowhere anyway before the Kido Butai is defeated, and that's not going to be earlier than OTL. So before june the forces would be built up, but just sitting in the US.
I reckon the delay would be roughly:
- if US declares war within 3 months the delay is neglible.
- if the US declares war in 3-6 months, delay is maybe 1-2 months
- if it takes more than 6 months it's at least 3 months, but could be more depending on what happens in the Pacific
- if it's close to 12 months the delay would likely be over 4 months, probably at least 6 months, but might be more depending on the Pacific.
In the meantime the situation in Europe doesn't improve that much for the axis compared to OTL, as I've outlined in a previous posts (#20 and #33). Some things might be better for them, some things worse. I'm fairly certain the BotA will go better for the allies ITTL.
The 8th AF attack on the oil industry started in February 1944 during what was called Big Week. The Bomber Barrons were upset in May that they had to divert their bomber fleets from the oil industry to the transportation system in France. The effect on German fuel reserves was felt immediately, and for the rest of the war it hamstrung military operations. The death nell came with the Red Army overrunning Romania. With most of both natural & synthetic oil gone there wasn't much left to fight with.
As for day fighters without the American Strategic Bombing Campaign German aviation at the fronts would've been much stronger. Most of the night fighters were Bf-110s, Me-410s, Ju-88s and so on. Most of the Bf-109s & FW-190s would be available for service in the Med & the Eastern Front. Interesting that without the Americans the sense of urgency over the ME-262 and later jet fighters would've been less intense.
Bomber Command became more accurate because the Americans destroyed most of the German day & night fighter forces. After that BC could do precision raids of high value targets by day. Night area bombing didn't take out oil plants. P-51s with Packard Merlin's and more fuel won the air war for BC to. BC loses become intolerable by the spring of 1944. In the so-called Battle of Berlin in the winter of 1943/44 BC lost over a thousand aircraft. That was unsustainable. BC's night offensive would've failed absent 8th AF Fighter Command gaining air supremacy.
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