Why did the Chinease not expand and create a colonial empire?

Well, China was divided into many states from 800 to 200 BC, about 600 years. They did not reunify quickly at all. If something similar were to happen, say between 1300 and 1600, you could have well-developed coastal kingdoms (like a modern Qi state) that is forced to maintain naval developments in order to offset other disadvantages.

I know:

Yes, but China's history didn't begin in 500 AD. China was divided from around 800 to 221 BC, then again from 190/220 to 589 AD, with a brief exception from 280 to 304 under the Sima Jin, so that's roughly 950+ years of division, out of about 1400 years, from 800 BC to 589 AD. However, it was then divided again during 907-960, and lastly from 1125 to 1279, when the Mongols unified China under the Yuan in 1279, and China did generally remain united until the Qing fell in 1911.

I did edit that post after you posted, but it was because I misread 1500 as 2500, and I did not edit the specific dates except for adding the fall of the Qing in 1911.

However, the problem is that South China was much less densely populated in comparison to North China until the Song or so, and the coastal population eventually began to outnumber the inland population since then. As a result, you're talking about two completely different scenarios here, and even more so because a state in the 14th or 15th century roughly covering the areas that the Qin had controlled would almost certainly be unable to resist the other states in China Proper, let alone conquering them. Again, as I stated earlier, states that are located along the coast, or along rivers, will be able to conquer those further inland, and if a balance of power is not maintained between 2-5 states, then one will probably end up unifying China.



Anyway, in terms of Japan, I will focus mainly on the west, north, and south, as I think that going east without going north or south first is virtually impossible.

Regarding west:

Korea managed to fight back with around the same number of troops, if you combine the independent individual armies put together in response to the invasion. Because Korea had resisted numerous military incursions from outsiders for hundreds of years, and generally succeeding, with the possible exception of agreeing to become a Mongol vassal, it would have been extremely unreasonable for the people to merely sit on their hands after the Japanese landed. Due to resistance in numerous villages/cities often operating independently of the government, not to mention the navy, some technological advancements, such as the hwacha, and token support (in terms of manpower) from the Ming, Japan was forced to abandon Korea altogether after eight years.

It's also extremely telling that Korea reverted back to its Confucian method of thought after the war, even though that was the main reason why the army had become decentralized, causing the Japanese to sweep though the peninsula within a year, and that Japan generally pursued a policy of isolationism for more than two centuries until it was opened up by the West. Of course, both states eventually resumed trade with each other and other ones, but the trade volume never reached a point comparable to that of the Europeans. In other words, generally speaking, because the states in East Asia were content with the resources they possessed and the trade that they conducted, there was no particular reason for them to look further outward, either economically or militarily.

[M]ilitarily speaking, Japan's ultimate disaster in Korea illustrated how it was unable to expand outside of its borders before the late 19th century, and economically speaking, the state was generally content in terms of trade with East Asia and minimal trade with the West, mainly through the Dutch. In other words, given the general situation at the time, it would be extremely difficult for Japan to create more trading routes with SE Asia and the Americas, and possibly expand militarily outside of the islands before the mid-18th century, initially through Korea.

In addition, I think people are generally more focused on how Japan managed to raise and arm a large number of troops in a short amount of time during the Imjin War, but they overlook the fact that Korea's population was only 1/2 to 1/3 that of Japan at the time, and yet it still managed to raise a similar amount of troops. Also, Joseon lacked western firearms, although the range for the Korean bows often diluted the Japanese advantage.

Regarding north:

I was talking about a divergence shortly after the Senkoku period began . . . foreign influence would probably not be butterflied away, and if the Europeans were equally intrusive, Japan would probably also be xenophobic no matter who was in control at the time . . . if Japan decided to look north, then west from Hokkaido and potentially Sakhalin, I guess it would be possible, although it would probably be limited to trade with tribes in Siberia rather than actual takeover or maintaining colonies. The gradual expansion would also take decades or centuries, allowing Russia to step in by that time.

I see your points concerning an alternate Japanese regime. However, the Japanese probably decided to conquer the Ryukyu because the islands had become profitable through trade, while taking over Hokkaido would probably not have led to tangible benefits. Theoretically, the Japanese could expand into Sakhalin, and establish trading relationships with tribes in Siberia, as I stated before, but there would really be no impetus to colonize or actively expand into Siberia.

In terms of expanding south, taking Taiwan would almost certainly have received a direct response from China, and the Philippines were firmly under Spanish control by the time that Toyotomi Hideyoshi came to power, so although some trade links could be established before then, a military campaign would almost certainly be disastrous.

Although this is not directly related, in terms of Korea:

If there was no Imjin War, then Joseon would have most likely allied with the Ming against the Manchus, then Russia. The result would be a remote possibility of Korea initially gaining portions of southern/eastern Manchuria, then expanding into what is now Primorsky Krai, and possibly reaching the Sea of Okhotsk. Because Joseon would have a population of about 10-15 million by the mid-17th century and around 15-20 by the end of the century after settlement and growth, the initial amount that would have been settled in Manchuria/Siberia would be about 1-3 million. For comparison, tens of thousands of Joseon farmers settled in Manchuria although they were technically forbidden from doing so by the Qing. However, like the other scenarios, the possibility that all of the events would fall into place is very unlikely.

In other words, although it is possible that China, Korea, and/or Japan could have expanded further and/or established colonies, it would be extremely unlikely for the governments to actively sponsor the expeditions, which would make it almost impossible for widespread settlement to occur.
 
Except you're ignoring Korea again. Considering that Goryeo controls Liaodong, and would be in a much stronger position to resist the northern state, the southern one would probably ally with Goryeo in order to take over the north and nominally reunify China. You have to realize that both the Jurchen Jin and the Mongols attempted to subjugate Korea before making attempts to conquer South China in order to prevent a potential Goryeo-Song alliance, but because the northern state in this scenario would probably be unable to do so, it would be much more difficult to resist the south. On the other hand, if the alliance does not occur, regardless of animosity, there would no particular reason for Goryeo to not trade with the northern state as well, as Korea traded with Japan soon after the Imjin War.
OK, the POD can be this: the Yuan Empire collapsed earlier because they wasted all their resources crushing opposition in Goryeo in a massive, drawn out war. Despite the fact that this caused the Yuan to lose China to two dynasties, the Koreans have been utterly devastated and unable to resist.

If the northern state is cut off from trade to the west, it's also likely that the northern nomads would be powerful enough to retake a significant portion of North China, which would leave the southern one free to take the rest, or the Mongols could take over North China altogether, given how they successfully resisted the Ming IOTL. Also, I have no idea why you're mentioning the Turks, as most of them were incorporated into the Ottoman Empire after the early 13th century. In addition, you've been consistently ignoring the wokou, which started raiding coastal China from the mid-14th century to the late 16th century, as I stated in an earlier post, and would heavily curtail overseas trade, as the Ming banned all maritime trade by the late 14th century IOTL, while stationing a large navy along the coast to keep watch.
The Mongols and Turks could be fighting amongst themselves (the Khanates were collapsing). By Turks I refer to all of the Turkic Peoples, who do inhabit almost all of Central Asia today. Other than the Oirats Khanate, most of the Khanates eventually became dominated by Turks. If overseas trade is their only option, the Northern Chinese will presumably build up their navy in effort to resist the pirates. There were European and Moroccan pirates too, but they didn't stop overseas trade.



Yes, but you would have to make sure that the states are not reunified within a century or so, as the Song did so within 50 years, and the Ming in less than a decade. The problem is that once a state manages to control a significant amount of population or resources, most likely by taking over a significant amount of a large river or a coastline, that state would be likely to take over the other states within several decades or so. Again, as I stated earlier, a reunified China would be more preoccupied with affairs concerning the wokou and the Mongols than with sending people overseas in mass numbers to explore lands that smaller coastal states had explored beforehand.[/QUOTE]
 
OK, the POD can be this: the Yuan Empire collapsed earlier because they wasted all their resources crushing opposition in Goryeo in a massive, drawn out war. Despite the fact that this caused the Yuan to lose China to two dynasties, the Koreans have been utterly devastated and unable to resist.

Why?

The Mongols didn't actually succeed in subjugating Goryeo. The latter was under a military government, which explains the stiff resistance, while the monarch and the rest of the court actually attempted to surrender to the Mongols several times before the last dictator was assassinated. After Korea sent the crown prince to the Mongols and agreed to nominally surrender, the latter withdrew from most of Korea, although they retained forces in the northern part of the peninsula, and on Jeju Island.

If you're talking about a PoD during the mid-14th century, that wouldn't work either, because Gongmin took advantage of the chaos in China to push the Mongols out of the peninsula and temporarily seize Liaodong, although his assassination eventually led to political turmoil afterward.

The Mongols and Turks could be fighting amongst themselves (the Khanates were collapsing). By Turks I refer to all of the Turkic Peoples, who do inhabit almost all of Central Asia today. Other than the Oirats Khanate, most of the Khanates eventually became dominated by Turks. If overseas trade is their only option, the Northern Chinese will presumably build up their navy in effort to resist the pirates. There were European and Moroccan pirates too, but they didn't stop overseas trade.

Well, yes, Turkic tribes in general still inhabited Central Asia. However, if the Mongols and Turks fight amongst themselves, the northern state could take advantage of the turmoil to subjugate or vassalize one or several of the Central Asian states, similar to what the Tang did, so I'm not sure what you're trying to say here.

Also, North China could still conduct trade with Korea through Liaodong/Liaoxi, along with the Ryukyu Islands and Japan. The four states could also trade with the southern Chinese state, as historically speaking, trade still occurred between North and South China, along with other states, even though they were frequently at war with one another.
 
Why?

The Mongols didn't actually succeed in subjugating Goryeo. The latter was under a military government, which explains the stiff resistance, while the monarch and the rest of the court actually attempted to surrender to the Mongols several times before the last dictator was assassinated. After Korea sent the crown prince to the Mongols and agreed to nominally surrender, the latter withdrew from most of Korea, although they retained forces in the northern part of the peninsula, and on Jeju Island.
So the Yuan would decide in this timeline not to tolerate the stiff resistance and the lack of subjugating, so they try harder, and manage to devastate Korea but wreck themselves.


Well, yes, Turkic tribes in general still inhabited Central Asia. However, if the Mongols and Turks fight amongst themselves, the northern state could take advantage of the turmoil to subjugate or vassalize one or several of the Central Asian states, similar to what the Tang did, so I'm not sure what you're trying to say here.
The conflicts between the states in Central Asia would prevent any overland trade through them, so North China can't trade overland.

Also, North China could still conduct trade with Korea through Liaodong/Liaoxi, along with the Ryukyu Islands and Japan. The four states could also trade with the southern Chinese state, as historically speaking, trade still occurred between North and South China, along with other states, even though they were frequently at war with one another.
If Korea is deveastated/conquered/vassalized by North China, they wouldn't be a major trade partner. I suppose they could trade with the South still, but I'm sure they would try and find a way to circumnavigate their enemies and not have all of their trade with anyone other than Korea/Japan be through their foe. This facilitates sailing expeditions that allow the Chinese to make greater contact in the Philippines and Indonesia, and eventually discover the Americas.
 
So the Yuan would decide in this timeline not to tolerate the stiff resistance and the lack of subjugating, so they try harder, and manage to devastate Korea but wreck themselves.

But the Mongols sent six expeditions, which suggests that they put a lot of effort into subjugating Goryeo. The resistance was enough to force the Mongols into sending more troops, but also devastating enough for the Goryeo court to send messengers with the intent of surrendering. Also, Korea initially surrendered in 1259, although it had negotiated for peace beforehand several times so that the Mongols withdrew from the peninsula, while the Yuan was established in 1271, so your scenario is technically anachronistic. Although there were sporadic resistance movements until 1973, including the Sambyeolcho Rebellion, the Korean public was getting weary of the bloodshed, so stiff resistance would probably not last long after 1970-5 or so even in an ATL.

As a result, I just don't see how the Mongols could continually send troops if the latter decided to surrender and agreed to become a compulsory vassal within 30 years IOTL.

The conflicts between the states in Central Asia would prevent any overland trade through them, so North China can't trade overland.

It would still probably find a way. You have to remember that China only needed to vassalize its neighbors in order to obtain what it needed, and even if it failed, it would still be able to contact both Northeast and Southeast Asia, in which the latter would occur through the Ryukyu Islands.

If Korea is deveastated/conquered/vassalized by North China, they wouldn't be a major trade partner. I suppose they could trade with the South still, but I'm sure they would try and find a way to circumnavigate their enemies and not have all of their trade with anyone other than Korea/Japan be through their foe. This facilitates sailing expeditions that allow the Chinese to make greater contact in the Philippines and Indonesia, and eventually discover the Americas.

I'm not sure where you're getting the assumption that Korea would be defeated by a state in North China. I already stated that if Goryeo took Liaodong, then they would be in a better position to resist the northern Chinese state, so they would be able to negotiate on more equal terms, including trade.

It's true that North and South China would be wary of each other after several conflicts, but economically speaking, it would be more beneficial for them to trade with each other, similar to what occurred during the Northern and Southern Dynasties Period. The Ryukyu Kingdom, which was a Ming/Qing vassal IOTL, would also allow the north to trade with Southwest Asia, and provide the south with goods from Northeast Asia.

Also, at this point, I'm starting to not understand what you're trying to argue, so I would highly suggest doing some research, then coming back later to post the specifics. We could go on forever in circles, but I think you should probably get a sense of what was going on within each region/state before trying to come up with general scenarios.
 
You know, I think it's unlikely, and especially unlikely to happen before the 17th and 18th centuries.

But there were a few Chinese officials who visited the Philippines looking for a mountain of gold.

It's unclear what as going on; Chinese sources portray them as idiots who were tricked, and Spanish sources saw them as cunning agents of a Cathayan plot to seize Luzon.

But my guess is this was all related to the fact that Luzon was the way station for the galleons carrying silver to Asia from the New World.

Also, Hideyoshi also debated invading Taiwan instead of Korea. Might've worked out better for everyone involved...

Taiwan makes sense. But sending a military expedition across the Pacific with the technology of this era doesn't.
 
Taiwan makes sense. But sending a military expedition across the Pacific with the technology of this era doesn't.

Hey, the Dutch, Portuguese, Spanish, and English did it...

Okay, the Spanish are the main example I'm thinking of across the Pacific. But the others did go a ways.
 
Hey, the Dutch, Portuguese, Spanish, and English did it...

Okay, the Spanish are the main example I'm thinking of across the Pacific. But the others did go a ways.

How many men did the Spanish send for taking the Philippines and such?
 
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