Why did Portugal fall from being a major power and how could've this been prevented?

Simple, really. I just want a concrete answer to this question. I've seen it answered in a lot of ways but I want to just know.

Ultimately Portugal lacked the population and resources necessary to swim with the bigger fishes. Part of this is a change in perception of what a Great Power was. Part of it was a matter of perception, as Europe moving away from Mercantilism and it's single-minded pursuit of a positive balance of gold specie intake made the old Iberian empires certainly less impressive.

Demographically Portugal was far smaller than it's rivals and economically the country was backwards, retaining highly unfavorable economic institutions well into the industrial era, making innovation and industrialization far more difficult.

Really, a lot of Portugal's status came from happening to be first in the race to explore the New World. Once things settled down the early bird bonus kinda faded
 
1. Neighboring of greater power which even managed to occupy Portugal 60 years.
2. Low population. Even nowadays Portugal has pretty low population.
3. Not much resources nor money.
 

Grey Wolf

Gone Fishin'
Donor
The 1755 Lisbon earthquake certainly had a big impact

Before that, Portugal's globe-spanning empire of small forts had fallen partly to the Ottomans, and partly to the Dutch. In both cases, distant power projection was possible when imposing it on native states, but when stronger global states got in on the game it was very difficult to maintain.

The Napoleonic wars finished it off, by sundering Brazil from Portugal. leaving it with some African territories and the remains of colonies in Indonesia, which eventualy became only East Timor once the Dutch consolidated their hold on Flores etc
 
Portugal fell from major power status because it lacked settled territory under strong control. They needed more people.

Portugal was a major power as long as it had exclusive control of the East Indies trade. When they lose their monopoly, they fall from major power status unless they've got something to substitute for it, and every possible substitute doesn't work for a nation of a mere million people.

Settler colonialism: Huge numbers of Portuguese went on lucrative voyages from 1450-1600, with high death rates. The Azores and Madeira had population growth, but Brazil was for the most part negative or neutral.

Nobody was deliberately doing settler colonies before 1600, and even after that they were sideshows compared to the east and west Indies (where the money was coming from). The Portuguese need to luck into some very early positive-growth settler colonies they create without thinking about it too much.

Morocco: Otherwise, an Iberian conquest of North Africa would do. Portugal gets northern Morocco, Spain gets parts of Algeria. It would be incredibly ugly (and lucky), of course, but Portugal would probably more than double it's supply of Portuguese-identifying people in less than a century.
 
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Previous week, I have just begun reading this paper, here, on my e-reader which make the claim that the discovery of enormous amounts of gold in Brazil around 1694 gave Portugal a resource curse which led to everything from Dutch Disease* to bad political effects, with the result the country ended up as the poorest country in West-Europe by 1850.

However, not that I am saying that is the main cause of Portugal falling from being a major power, their low population relative to its competitors means that likely would have happened anyway. Possibly, if Portugal ends up with more of the Iberian peninsula its larger population base would allow it to do better; however, that might require a PoD before the unification of Spain, maybe even earlier.

*It contains the claim that Portugal traded-sector was hit so hard by it that urbanization even fell from 17.3 to 16.2 percent between 1750 and 1800...
 
There are multiple reasons (and PODs) to address this. (The majority of what I'm going to cite references TLs that already exist on this site)
Starting in the 12th century, Portugal must expand its size in the Iberian Peninsula. To do this, Sancho I's expedition to Cidade Rodrigo must succeed, and from there Portugal could maybe hold Galicia.
Starting with this increase in size, Portugal can have a bigger role in the Reconquista. One idea I've always been fond off is either the Siege of Seville failing or somehow the Castilian Army being defeated at the Battle of Las Navas de Tolosa, which would heavily damage southwards Castilian expansion. From there, Portugal may be able to conquer everything south of the Guadiana.
In the 15th century, as the Reconquista is coming to an end, a good POD would be having Ferdinand of Aragon being defeated in the Battle of Toro, allowing Portugal to gain an upper hand in the War of Castilian Succession (Basically the Se Deus Quiser TL, by @Gintoki Sakata)
In the 16th century, avoiding the Iberian Union is ESSENTIAL to keeping the Portuguese Empire. A good way of doing that would be by having Duarte, Duke of Guimarães live longer and actually marry, avoiding both the heavy inbreeding in the Avis dynasty, and also having a more mentally stable king following Sebastian's death (The route taken by @RedAquilla , in the Cessa o Nevoeiro TL)
In the 17th century, after the Iberian Union ends, a good idea would be to establish the Companhia Geral de Comércio do Brasil in 1643, in the midst of the war against the Dutch and the Spanish (A proposal that was submitted in 1643 by António Vieira to the king). This company allows Portugal to have more resources and funds for its wars, which could allow it to have a better time fighting against the Spanish and the Dutch. (Again, this is what's done by the @galik TL The History of the Restored Portugal)
In the 18th century, frankly, having the Marquis of Pombal being more collaborative and allowing for the creation of a cabinet would allow the Marquis to implement his (positive) reforms much more effectively (@Lusitania 's Rebirth of an Empire TL is about this)
In the 19th century, following the loss of Brazil, IOTL Miguel of Portugal started a civil war that devastated the country. By having him die in the early 1820s, the civil war would be avoided and Portugal would be somewhat better-off. (@RedAquilla 's other great TL Vivam Lusos Valorosos is about this).
As this is a Before 1900 forum, I won't cite any 20th century TLs
 
Wow, we do have lots of Portugal-cented TLs. Gonna watch them all for future reading.
Very based, keep at it you gigachads, I hope we have more in the future. Portuguese-speaking people should take over the world, including this forum. Good, good.

Anyway... personally, I think the critical blow was the Iberian Union. Portuguese interests and affairs made 2nd place compared to Spanish ones.
Dutch-Portuguese war was one shitshown that could have been entirely avoided if there was no Union. It turned the Dutch from commercial partners to foes and rivals. A game whose only winning move is not to play.

Some people think the Iberian Union made brazilian expansion possible, but I don't buy it - Portuguese explorers were already crossing Tordesilhas borders. The Tordesilhas Treaty was pretty much a meme from Day 1. Demographics and geography would favour a Luso-Brazilian expansion west. Once Portugal secured all of its rightful Tordesilhas territory, it would be all over for any spanish attempts to secure the rest of the heartland. Worst case, we would see a brazilian equivalent of the Mexican-American War. Spain's main interest was in other places.
 
Some people think the Iberian Union made brazilian expansion possible, but I don't buy it - Portuguese explorers were already crossing Tordesilhas borders. The Tordesilhas Treaty was pretty much a meme from Day 1. Demographics and geography would favour a Luso-Brazilian expansion west. Once Portugal secured all of its rightful Tordesilhas territory, it would be all over for any spanish attempts to secure the rest of the heartland. Worst case, we would see a brazilian equivalent of the Mexican-American War. Spain's main interest was in other places.
I totally agree with you on that point. The bandeirantes would exist regardless of an Iberian Union or not, and with less Portuguese men being sent to die in Spanish affairs such as protecting the Philippines or the Spanish Armada, they may even be bigger ITTL
 
Aviz happened

Call me petty, but I blame everything on the second dynasty of Portugal

From the legalization of slavery backed by the Papal bull requested by the portuguese king, to the expulsion and forced conversion of jews of Portugal, to the relations between Portugal and Japan & China being butchered by their carefree attitude towards piracy & capture of asian slaves

Ultimately culminating with Portugal falling to the spanish Habsburgs and the rest is history

After which the Braganza were handed a cursed hand to try fixing

Had them been butterflied away by the first dynasty not ending, another taking power or an alt-version of them with a whole different set of kinds ruled, then there's a good chance Portugal would be far better off

Im not saying Portugal would never have tampered with slavery, oppressed jews, had sunshine & rainbow relations with the East or faced problems with Spain

But it's very possible another ruling family wouldnt have officially endorsed slavery with the Pope's approval(after telling him to give his O-kay), likely merely tolerated as long it didnt got out of hand, likewise while the treatment of minorities(such as jews & muslims) would likely vary from king to king it's doubtful they would all have been kicked away considering how useful they had been economically simply to please Spain(at worse I could see them being exiled to colonies like they did with criminals sent to Brazil) and as for Asia while they wouldnt really be able(or want) to enforce anti-piracy laws there I could see a more pragmatic royal house executing a few notoriously awful figures for the sake of their commercial relationships there with the vice-governors being instructed to work together with the local empires(the ones they arent trying to conquer that is) to ensure the safety of christians(read: portuguese subjects) while they trade with & convert the locals

Lastly, the conquest of Portugal by Spain surprisingly only happened once IOTL and the Iberian Union only lasted like, what? Half a century? As destructive it was for the Empire

A sightly more competent house would likely have butterflied that away, even if wars against the spanish were inevitable, at worse they might be forced to move to Brazil earlier like OTL considering Portugal already had that as a contingent plan in case of a successful spanish invasion but never used it against them

While I cant tell how Portugal would look by the modern day with those changes I can tell that a Portuguese Empire not plagued by a overly reliance on the "peculiar institution" and the resource curse it brings, better off economically by not expulsing/murdering their merchant class to seize their wealth and antagonizing their main trade partners in Asia, better militarily by not having its army & navy destroyed fighting for the spanish, in a better position to spread (portuguese) Catholicism by not looking like literal Draka to natives on both sides of the planet and fully independent by the duration of it's Imperial Era(wheter with its capital in Lisbon or Rio) would be FAR BETTER OFF than the clusterfuck their underwent in our world

Perhaps Brazil would remain portuguese if they moved here, had granted the status of United Kingdom(like IOTL) or some kind of Dominion status earlier and that sticked

Perhaps Portugal would hold a far more strong position in the East, portuguese Indonesia? Philippines? Australia? New Zealand? Heck if I know, if they had a stronger relationship with local kingdoms and still had the strongest navy in Europe they would never have been outshined by the dutch or the british there

Speaking of which, perhaps if the portuguese navy was never taken over by the spanish and wrecked in atempts to conquer England maybe they, not England, would have had the strongest navy in the world with monopoly over the seas, "rule the waves"

Following with that, perhaps with said navy and a much stronger economy Portugal might had become the first industrial nation in the world, a Hyperpower on par with the British Enpire of OTL, "where the Sun never sets"

And mentioning industrialization, perhaps with a Brazil not so dependent on slave labour and agriculture in general we might have industrialized ourselves rather than remain a country of untapped potential led by land owners ala the caudillos in Spanish America, whose fortunes were built upon the blood of people brought like cattle, instead rising as the Superpower of the South and an equal of the United States of our own timeline with it's potential unleashed for the world to see as the place "Where Hearts Entertain June"

Perhaps...

Alas, we'll never know

But I do know one thing

Aviz sucks
 
Look a map
Saw the map
There was this one small anglo-saxon kingdom there, I think its name was like what? Angland? Wessex? Inglaterra? Idk

Started off even smaller than Portugal in a island completely separated from the rest of the world, said rest of the world that liked invading it that is

Population way smaller as well, quantity of germanic tribes moving there was like what, in the dozens of thousands? Oh and it had a far weaker navy than Portugal as well, started the colonization game way later

Surely wouldnt have amounted to anything right?

Oh it took over that island? Oh it took over the whole planet, ruling over 1/4 of it directly and the other 3/4 had to obey it's will all the way from their capital, London? Well I think that was the name, certainly not Gondor!

Oh and it also left as its colonial offspring the sole hegemon of North America, a former Nuclear Hyperpower that is still the world's sole Superpower? On par with the entire civilisation of China that was the largest nation in the world and it's most powerful state for thousands of years?

What gives

Oh right

A stupid fuck amount of luck and highly specific circumstances that made it, not little Portugal, the King of Earth

Yet... forgive me for being pedantic if not even patronizing...

But people tell me to look to it in a map as the explanation? Or "they didnt have enough people" "they didnt have the right resources"

It all amounts to "geography is fate"

And sorry, but I cant believe that

Not when England is right there.

And dont come at me saying they had coal!
 
Aviz happened

Call me petty, but I blame everything on the second dynasty of Portugal

From the legalization of slavery backed by the Papal bull requested by the portuguese king, to the expulsion and forced conversion of jews of Portugal, to the relations between Portugal and Japan & China being butchered by their carefree attitude towards piracy & capture of asian slaves

Ultimately culminating with Portugal falling to the spanish Habsburgs and the rest is history

After which the Braganza were handed a cursed hand to try fixing

Had them been butterflied away by the first dynasty not ending, another taking power or an alt-version of them with a whole different set of kinds ruled, then there's a good chance Portugal would be far better off

Im not saying Portugal would never have tampered with slavery, oppressed jews, had sunshine & rainbow relations with the East or faced problems with Spain

But it's very possible another ruling family wouldnt have officially endorsed slavery with the Pope's approval(after telling him to give his O-kay), likely merely tolerated as long it didnt got out of hand, likewise while the treatment of minorities(such as jews & muslims) would likely vary from king to king it's doubtful they would all have been kicked away considering how useful they had been economically simply to please Spain(at worse I could see them being exiled to colonies like they did with criminals sent to Brazil) and as for Asia while they wouldnt really be able(or want) to enforce anti-piracy laws there I could see a more pragmatic royal house executing a few notoriously awful figures for the sake of their commercial relationships there with the vice-governors being instructed to work together with the local empires(the ones they arent trying to conquer that is) to ensure the safety of christians(read: portuguese subjects) while they trade with & convert the locals

Lastly, the conquest of Portugal by Spain surprisingly only happened once IOTL and the Iberian Union only lasted like, what? Half a century? As destructive it was for the Empire

A sightly more competent house would likely have butterflied that away, even if wars against the spanish were inevitable, at worse they might be forced to move to Brazil earlier like OTL considering Portugal already had that as a contingent plan in case of a successful spanish invasion but never used it against them

While I cant tell how Portugal would look by the modern day with those changes I can tell that a Portuguese Empire not plagued by a overly reliance on the "peculiar institution" and the resource curse it brings, better off economically by not expulsing/murdering their merchant class to seize their wealth and antagonizing their main trade partners in Asia, better militarily by not having its army & navy destroyed fighting for the spanish, in a better position to spread (portuguese) Catholicism by not looking like literal Draka to natives on both sides of the planet and fully independent by the duration of it's Imperial Era(wheter with its capital in Lisbon or Rio) would be FAR BETTER OFF than the clusterfuck their underwent in our world

Perhaps Brazil would remain portuguese if they moved here, had granted the status of United Kingdom(like IOTL) or some kind of Dominion status earlier and that sticked

Perhaps Portugal would hold a far more strong position in the East, portuguese Indonesia? Philippines? Australia? New Zealand? Heck if I know, if they had a stronger relationship with local kingdoms and still had the strongest navy in Europe they would never have been outshined by the dutch or the british there

Speaking of which, perhaps if the portuguese navy was never taken over by the spanish and wrecked in atempts to conquer England maybe they, not England, would have had the strongest navy in the world with monopoly over the seas, "rule the waves"

Following with that, perhaps with said navy and a much stronger economy Portugal might had become the first industrial nation in the world, a Hyperpower on par with the British Enpire of OTL, "where the Sun never sets"

And mentioning industrialization, perhaps with a Brazil not so dependent on slave labour and agriculture in general we might have industrialized ourselves rather than remain a country of untapped potential led by land owners ala the caudillos in Spanish America, whose fortunes were built upon the blood of people brought like cattle, instead rising as the Superpower of the South and an equal of the United States of our own timeline with it's potential unleashed for the world to see as the place "Where Hearts Entertain June"

Perhaps...

Alas, we'll never know

But I do know one thing

Aviz sucks
I read a TL (I forgot what it was called) where Portugal banned slavery and they were better off, since Brazil actually had developed as a great place earlier. I think a Afosine ruled Portugal might've been more "northern European oriented" than Spain, since they would not expel the Jews, as that would be bad for business. Not much of our world might change as you think, but Portugal would be squeezed into the history books as a more friendly empire (brutality to the colonized still happens, let's not forget, it's still Portugal.)
 
Saw the map
There was this one small anglo-saxon kingdom there, I think its name was like what? Angland? Wessex? Inglaterra? Idk

Started off even smaller than Portugal in a island completely separated from the rest of the world, said rest of the world that liked invading it that is

Population way smaller as well, quantity of germanic tribes moving there was like what, in the dozens of thousands? Oh and it had a far weaker navy than Portugal as well, started the colonization game way later

Surely wouldnt have amounted to anything right?

Oh it took over that island? Oh it took over the whole planet, ruling over 1/4 of it directly and the other 3/4 had to obey it's will all the way from their capital, London? Well I think that was the name, certainly not Gondor!

Oh and it also left as its colonial offspring the sole hegemon of North America, a former Nuclear Hyperpower that is still the world's sole Superpower? On par with the entire civilisation of China that was the largest nation in the world and it's most powerful state for thousands of years?

What gives

Oh right

A stupid fuck amount of luck and highly specific circumstances that made it, not little Portugal, the King of Earth

Yet... forgive me for being pedantic if not even patronizing...

But people tell me to look to it in a map as the explanation? Or "they didnt have enough people" "they didnt have the right resources"

It all amounts to "geography is fate"

And sorry, but I cant believe that

Not when England is right there.

And dont come at me saying they had coal!
Brazil vs US was the potential rivalry of the modern day, that would've been funny
 
I'm seeing a lot of Iberian Union ones, and yeah I expected the Iberian Union to be here, it was a disaster to Portugal, because Spain is a disaster.
 
There are multiple reasons (and PODs) to address this. (The majority of what I'm going to cite references TLs that already exist on this site)
Starting in the 12th century, Portugal must expand its size in the Iberian Peninsula. To do this, Sancho I's expedition to Cidade Rodrigo must succeed, and from there Portugal could maybe hold Galicia.
Starting with this increase in size, Portugal can have a bigger role in the Reconquista. One idea I've always been fond off is either the Siege of Seville failing or somehow the Castilian Army being defeated at the Battle of Las Navas de Tolosa, which would heavily damage southwards Castilian expansion. From there, Portugal may be able to conquer everything south of the Guadiana.
In the 15th century, as the Reconquista is coming to an end, a good POD would be having Ferdinand of Aragon being defeated in the Battle of Toro, allowing Portugal to gain an upper hand in the War of Castilian Succession (Basically the Se Deus Quiser TL, by @Gintoki Sakata)
In the 16th century, avoiding the Iberian Union is ESSENTIAL to keeping the Portuguese Empire. A good way of doing that would be by having Duarte, Duke of Guimarães live longer and actually marry, avoiding both the heavy inbreeding in the Avis dynasty, and also having a more mentally stable king following Sebastian's death (The route taken by @RedAquilla , in the Cessa o Nevoeiro TL)
In the 17th century, after the Iberian Union ends, a good idea would be to establish the Companhia Geral de Comércio do Brasil in 1643, in the midst of the war against the Dutch and the Spanish (A proposal that was submitted in 1643 by António Vieira to the king). This company allows Portugal to have more resources and funds for its wars, which could allow it to have a better time fighting against the Spanish and the Dutch. (Again, this is what's done by the @galik TL The History of the Restored Portugal)
In the 18th century, frankly, having the Marquis of Pombal being more collaborative and allowing for the creation of a cabinet would allow the Marquis to implement his (positive) reforms much more effectively (@Lusitania 's Rebirth of an Empire TL is about this)
In the 19th century, following the loss of Brazil, IOTL Miguel of Portugal started a civil war that devastated the country. By having him die in the early 1820s, the civil war would be avoided and Portugal would be somewhat better-off. (@RedAquilla 's other great TL Vivam Lusos Valorosos is about this).
As this is a Before 1900 forum, I won't cite any 20th century TLs
I'm saving all of those to read later thank you very much
 
I read a TL (I forgot what it was called) where Portugal banned slavery and they were better off, since Brazil actually had developed as a great place earlier. I think a Afosine ruled Portugal might've been more "northern European oriented" than Spain, since they would not expel the Jews, as that would be bad for business. Not much of our world might change as you think, but Portugal would be squeezed into the history books as a more friendly empire (brutality to the colonized still happens, let's not forget, it's still Portugal.)
"A New World with New Ideas" uses the concept of a No-Slavery Portugal who's relatively friendly to natives that are not hostile to them(those who are they are indeed very brutal towards) and the result is a Superpower Portugal-Brazil on par with the US

I love that TL

Dunno if there was any other who did anything similar
 
"A New World with New Ideas" uses the concept of a No-Slavery Portugal who's relatively friendly to natives that are not hostile to them(those who are they are indeed very brutal towards) and the result is a Superpower Portugal-Brazil on par with the US

I love that TL

Dunno if there was any other who did anything similar
isn't it still going?
 
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