Who'll fold/collapse first in a Fascist Soviet cold war?

Which side is most likely economically stronker?

  • Fascists/Nazi/Axis

    Votes: 34 35.4%
  • Soviets

    Votes: 27 28.1%
  • I wish the worst to both of them, with good reason.

    Votes: 35 36.5%

  • Total voters
    96
(yes I have checked if there were other threads with this type of premise and have found none, then again I didn't try really hard or anything)

So in a lot of timelines in which the Western democracies face off against various cocktail of Axis powers (some just a Nazi empire, some also tack on the Japanese empire). Many of those ends with the Axis collapsing from their own economic inefficiencies and mounting costs of oppression (at least those timelines that don't end with nuclear WWIII or quick axis conquest of the rest of the world), somewhat mirroring the soviet collapse of OTL.

So, in a timeline where a bunch of POD (not really important unless it'll significantly influence one side or the other to a significant degree) to which the result that by the late 1940s the fascists dominate much of Western Europe and East Asia (i.e. Nazi defeat France, UK, etc. while Japan conquers much of China and various European colonies) and the USSR dominates much of Eastern Europe. Both sides possess nuclear weapons in sufficient quantities and knows the consequences of full nuclear war (because if they don't we all know the likely result is "nukes fly and people die"). The USA, for whatever reasons, is not considered to be a threat to either side (whatever the POD is, probably something like the US didn't join WWII).

So the question is, assuming a similar type of cold war as compare to OTL cold war, which side is more likely to collapse first? Think of it as the battle of the runner ups.
 
I think that the communist would outlast the fascist.
My reasonning being that the main fascist state, nazi germany, was economically unsound, living off "tributary state" and pillage of their conquest to finance a bloated military. If the war end with a stalemate at the border, they will face the cornelian choice of either demilitarizing or face a massive devaluation.

The communist just have to insure a correct level of life by investing in their civilian economy, and when your opposant litteraly have second class citizen, offering a decent life become easy.
 

FBKampfer

Banned
Soviets. If Germany can clear the initial economic hurdles, then things start to shape up a bit, as their active genocide programs end, and presumably having won WWII, active resistance starts to taper off in many countries.

There's actually a role the other Axis troops can fill nicely (simple occupation).

Hungary's economy gets a boom afterwards, Slovakia probably stops teetering on the edge of bankruptcy, Romania probably gets a boost from demobing.

Norway probably gets cut loose, Spain bounces back like OTL.


Italy might be able to stabilize, having at least 'gotten a stalemate against the world powers' (with 'limited' help from Germany). Maybe the stop trying to flex their muscles and develop a sensibly built military.


USSR kinda stumbles it's way forward like OTL, but probably with a few less satelite states.
 
Adam Tooze's "Wages Of Destruction" details pretty nicely the economic non-system of Nazi Germany.

When comparing two pretty terrible economic systems, it's sometimes hard to say which one would collapse first.

In addition, who's to say the fascist/communist powers don't turn on each other eventually? Hitler specifically wrote of plans to exterminate the Soviet state, and Japan and Russia aren't exactly the best of friends in any TL.

In addition, I think both fascist and communist powers are going to be making sure not to take any steps that result in a renewed war against the great power on the other side of the Atlantic/Pacific, the United States.
 

Ian_W

Banned
Whoever tries to build a fleet as well, to challenge either UK, Japan or USA, gets overstressed first and loses.

The major factor assisting the Soviet Union is a much higher domestic availability of raw materials, meaning less need for an export industry to earn hard currency to buy tungsten etc on the world market.
 
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thorr97

Banned
My bet's on the Fascists imploding first. This, because their "economy" - such as it was - is still somewhat market based. It's grossly distorted and dysfunctional thanks to the state's pervasive interference but it's still more an actual economy than the command one of the Communists. And yes, once the Fascists run out of wealth to plunder they'll have an increasingly difficult time of upholding that pact they made with their people - i.e. "give us absolute control over you and we'll ensure nothing but good economic times from now on." Once they truly fail at that, and no, having started World War Two doesn't count as having failed there, then the legitimacy of the Fascist state is gone. The Communists wouldn't even have to raise a finger as the infighting and implosion would happen all on its own.
 
And yes, once the Fascists run out of wealth to plunder they'll have an increasingly difficult time of upholding that pact they made with their people - i.e. "give us absolute control over you and we'll ensure nothing but good economic times from now on."
Plunder to sustain their pyramid scheme was largely German thing. Other fascist countries economies were more sustainable in peacetime, and their eventual collapse would come on similar timescale as USSR: after decades.
Fascist Italy existed for two decades, and had no serious economic problems (compared to contemporary totalitarian states, both left and right) until they got embargoed over Ethiopia.
Japanese were mostly just extracting raw resources, since areas they conquered were industrially underdeveloped (compared to most of Europe), there wasn't much they could steal. Their stealing was sustainable, since once they acquired raw materials, they just continued to extract them and didn't had to rely on new conquests to keep them going.

And keep in mind that USSR's "pact" with it's people was: "we take total power and promise you paradise. when paradise fails to come, we'll blame kulaks, Trotskyists and fascists".
I think even the notoriously inefficient Nazis woudl behave comparably to Bolsheviks, and would simply blame communists, Jews, etc. If there would be no Jews left, well, it wouldn't stop them from blaming them. There weren't any kulaks or Trockyist saboteurs either.
 
Fascists, as in addition to the already mentioned economic deficiencies they’ll also be equally engaged with the western democracies who are only a secondary concern for the Soviets until the Fascists collapse.
 
I almost voted the other way, since the poll question is opposite to the title.

Would anyone who thinks the Axis would last longer care to say why?
 
In addition, who's to say the fascist/communist powers don't turn on each other eventually? Hitler specifically wrote of plans to exterminate the Soviet state, and Japan and Russia aren't exactly the best of friends in any TL.

Already mentioned.
(because if they don't we all know the likely result is "nukes fly and people die")

There isn't much to talk about "both sides build up large nuclear arsenal and blew each other to kingdom come" or "the old world collapse in a war of epic scale as human civilization there goes extinct."

Also use the 3rd option in the poll if nothing else works.
 
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Should we assume for this that the North and South Americans have banded together to keep out fascists and communists? I imagine Fascism would be linked a great deal to bubmissiin to Germany, given the arrangements the Nazis would probably take in order to keep up living standards for Germans, as well as to find places for them to settle while pushing for population growth.
 
A Cold War necessitates a level of fear of inducing nuclear Armageddon. A surviving Nazi regime simply can't co-exist under these circumstances.
 
Should we assume for this that the North and South Americans have banded together to keep out fascists and communists?
Something to that effect, although for whatever reasons they're not one of the "big players" (the thread premise is more of a 2 way cold war between the competing ideologies of fascism and communism rather then both of them in 2nd place after the US, which will most likely happen if it's a 3 way).
 
Something to that effect, although for whatever reasons they're not one of the "big players" (the thread premise is more of a 2 way cold war between the competing ideologies of fascism and communism rather then both of them in 2nd place after the US, which will most likely happen if it's a 3 way).
The premise seemed more that everyone thought the US was weak because they kept out of WWII. Perhaps it means they have the Phillipines in their orbit. That is just a side thought. If the Western Hemisphere is left alone (well, with lots or internal threads from foreign agents) I expect that Canada, Mexico, the Southern Cone, and Brazil will go along with the Good Neighbor Policy, especially since everyone can only really hope for payment form each other. If we go by way of economics, the US will likely be stronger, but on a Cold War scale like you mentioned, their strength might be seen somewhat differently.
 
It’s entirely possible that the Fascist countries (minus Germany) never go through an economic collapse. They might just gradually reform over time if no major wars occur to increase growth and keep their budget in check. This is assuming that they don’t just go back to democracy after of few iconic Fascist figureheads die, or after they overstay their welcome and get forced to step down in favor of a new government. A transition from most Fascist governments towards a mixed market democracy is nowhere near as hard as a transition from Communism to mixed market democracy.
 
It’s entirely possible that the Fascist countries (minus Germany) never go through an economic collapse. They might just gradually reform over time if no major wars occur to increase growth and keep their budget in check. This is assuming that they don’t just go back to democracy after of few iconic Fascist figureheads die, or after they overstay their welcome and get forced to step down in favor of a new government. A transition from most Fascist governments towards a mixed market democracy is nowhere near as hard as a transition from Communism to mixed market democracy.

and how is Germany falling not gonna you know throw the entirety of the fascist bloc into chaos? Odds are you're gonna have the Romanians and Hungarians at each others throats over Transylvania you probably have the Slovaks mad at the Hungarians for the loss of Southern Slovakia you have various Resistance movements in Ethiopia, Greece, and Libya mighty peeved over continued Italian occupation A France mightily mad at Germany and Italy for obvious reasons and oh economic chaos as Germany falls. Without the Reich to keep its puppets from infighting its likely that you will the Fascist bloc collapse into general civil war while the USSR and US look on with interest.
 
Both economics are a basket case, neither are set to support long term unfocused innovation that the Western Democracies excelled at. The Soviets likely didn't get a lifeline of US machinery, tools and examples to steel that helped them in WW2 and early Cold War. They also didn't get to loot Nazi Germany or Eastern Europe of anything there, technology, machinery or knowledge.

There probably was a limited nuclear exchange also that probably badly damaged several cities on both sides to make them willing to talk peace.

Having either of them collapse does not work if they are sharing a large border as both are expansionist states, If one starts to collapse the other invades. A large portion also depends if the US slips into a form of command economy also. If the US does not start some sort of boom or recovery from the Depression then there is no City on the Hill for the civilians to compare themselves unfavorably too.

I do expect multiple rounds of purging and Russia to skip into even more brutal Russification and Gulag's to ensure loyalty. Germany, Western and Eastern Europe would also go in much of the same way as expected.

Middle East, South Asia and Africa will be a nasty piece of work with different groups playing the game there without even the level of civilization that it was played before WW1.
 
Wouldn't Germans loot their own allies (starting with Balkan allies and Vichy colonies in Africa, followed by Vichy France proper) if they run out of resources ? I can't see them falling without dragging their entire bloc down with them (or trying to)
 
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