Whole Hearted Brusilov Offensive

Germaniac

Donor
While reading Stone's the eastern front I cam across a little tidbit about the Brusilov Offensive, that the original plan was for not only Brusilov's army group southwest to advance into Galicia but also called for Evert's Army Group West and Kuropatkin's Army Group North to follow the same pattern as Brusilov. This would ecentially create one continuous wall of offensives.

Evert's and Kurpoatkin's armies were undersupplied and fearful of an offensive due to the utter failure of the lake Naroch offensive. Lets say the POD is of the Lake Naroch offensive being cancelled (or instead a reworked offensive under the Brusilov Offensive)

The Brusilov Offensive was into it's planning stages by now and the Naroch offensives changed Brusilovs plans very little so it wont butterfly away the offensive.

-June 4th the eastern Front opens up once more with a massive artillery barrage never before seen in war. The entire eastern front has become a possible battlefield.
-After the short but accurate barrage, Russian Troops from Brusilovs 8th, 11th, 7th, 9th armies rush across the lines. The Austrian line break just as in OTL
-Army Groups under Evert and Kurpatkin are ordered by Stavka to advance and assist in the Brusilov Offensive.
-Evert's Army group (As close to full stregth as Brusilov with the lack of Lake Naroch) Punches a hole through the German lines, no where near a sucsesful as Brusilov, who is fighting the austrians.
-Kurpatkin's army group finds the most trouble but slowly makes advances into german held territory.
-Without German reinforcements (tied down in the north from Evert and Kurpatkin) Brusilov will not be stopped until he reaches the carpathian mountains, In OTL he was stopped by German Reinforcements under Linsingen
-OTL good old conrad was calling for Austria to sue for peace once Brusilov reached the Carpathians. A more successful offensive might Push it over.
-Evert and Kurpatkin are likely taking a beating and their offensives will have died out taking nowhere near the desired amount of territory, BUT huge amounts of German troops have had to be transfered to the east, relieving Joffre and the French, and the Italians.
- Brusilovs armies Reach their maximum extent of control with Brest-Litovsk being captured by Evert and Lemberg by Brusilov.

Austria has likely lost closer to 2,000,000 men, captured or killed, in this offensive without German support. It would be impossible for Austria-Hungary to continue as an even ineffective force. If Vienna doesn't sue for peace I forsee the Hungarians going into open rebellion when the Romanians declare war, fearing they will loose their Romanian lands.

 
IOTL, Brusilov's offensive was a success because Conrad had moved all good Austro-Hungarian troops to the front in Italy for his own 'Strafexpedition' offensive (and had 'forgotten' to direct them back afterwards).

A greater success for Brusilov will mean more A-H troops sent to the east from Italy, may duly result in a success of the 6. Isonzo Battle - and the Italians breaking through.

Thus, Austria-Hungary, her front lines broken in the east and in the west will have little alternative to asking for peace, even if Romania stays out, which in this scenario, however, is rather unlikely.
 
While reading Stone's the eastern front I cam across a little tidbit about the Brusilov Offensive, that the original plan was for not only Brusilov's army group southwest to advance into Galicia but also called for Evert's Army Group West and Kuropatkin's Army Group North to follow the same pattern as Brusilov. This would ecentially create one continuous wall of offensives.

Evert's and Kurpoatkin's armies were undersupplied and fearful of an offensive due to the utter failure of the lake Naroch offensive. Lets say the POD is of the Lake Naroch offensive being cancelled (or instead a reworked offensive under the Brusilov Offensive)

The Brusilov Offensive was into it's planning stages by now and the Naroch offensives changed Brusilovs plans very little so it wont butterfly away the offensive.

-June 4th the eastern Front opens up once more with a massive artillery barrage never before seen in war. The entire eastern front has become a possible battlefield.
-After the short but accurate barrage, Russian Troops from Brusilovs 8th, 11th, 7th, 9th armies rush across the lines. The Austrian line break just as in OTL
-Army Groups under Evert and Kurpatkin are ordered by Stavka to advance and assist in the Brusilov Offensive.
-Evert's Army group (As close to full stregth as Brusilov with the lack of Lake Naroch) Punches a hole through the German lines, no where near a sucsesful as Brusilov, who is fighting the austrians.
-Kurpatkin's army group finds the most trouble but slowly makes advances into german held territory.
-Without German reinforcements (tied down in the north from Evert and Kurpatkin) Brusilov will not be stopped until he reaches the carpathian mountains, In OTL he was stopped by German Reinforcements under Linsingen
-OTL good old conrad was calling for Austria to sue for peace once Brusilov reached the Carpathians. A more successful offensive might Push it over.
-Evert and Kurpatkin are likely taking a beating and their offensives will have died out taking nowhere near the desired amount of territory, BUT huge amounts of German troops have had to be transfered to the east, relieving Joffre and the French, and the Italians.
- Brusilovs armies Reach their maximum extent of control with Brest-Litovsk being captured by Evert and Lemberg by Brusilov.

Austria has likely lost closer to 2,000,000 men, captured or killed, in this offensive without German support. It would be impossible for Austria-Hungary to continue as an even ineffective force. If Vienna doesn't sue for peace I forsee the Hungarians going into open rebellion when the Romanians declare war, fearing they will loose their Romanian lands.

Although the other army groups didn't participate it is still unfair to call the Brusilov offensive "not wholehearted" the Russians suffered over 1,000,000 casualties exectuting it (sacrificing a million sons can take the life blood out of a nation just ask the French at Verdun and the Battle of the Frontiers or the British at the Somme and Third Ypres)
 
IOTL, Brusilov's offensive was a success because Conrad had moved all good Austro-Hungarian troops to the front in Italy for his own 'Strafexpedition' offensive (and had 'forgotten' to direct them back afterwards).

A greater success for Brusilov will mean more A-H troops sent to the east from Italy, may duly result in a success of the 6. Isonzo Battle - and the Italians breaking through.

Thus, Austria-Hungary, her front lines broken in the east and in the west will have little alternative to asking for peace, even if Romania stays out, which in this scenario, however, is rather unlikely.

The butterflies in Italy alone are huge with this. No Caporetto will have huge political butterflies. The Liberal gov't are heroes who will achieve the Irrendenta with far fewer casualties than OTL and without the panic of Austrians threatening Venice as OTL. The interventionists, many of whom became the core of Fascism, are now celebrating the Liberal gov't. Giolitti's non-interventionist bloc loses the rest of their OTL ground, Salandra's interventionist bloc is in for the foreseeable future. The would-be Fascists likely filter among existing parties. Italy remains "Liberal", though leans right for a while. Maybe Mussie stays Socialist, though as an interventionist he'll be out of favor with the traditional internationalist Marxist core, so I guess he splinters off and founds a small national syndicalist party known as the Fascists that end up vacillating between leftist and rightist blocs.

An unknown Alpini LT named Balbo attempts to join the Aeronautica, but with the post-war air fleet downsizing has to settle for a job elsewhere. Perhaps his Masonic contacts get him a job with some moderate-right-wing party where he makes his way into politics, becoming perhaps a Ferrarese minister of some renown.

Now, with the US out of the picture (I've assumed this spells Entente victory since AH is out) Italy gets to claim spoils in Dalmatia in addition to Trento, Trieste, and Istria, and possibly a share of the OE, assuming it's not still standing on its own after a negotiated early peace (not my area). Yugoslavia remains a pipe dream. The (greatly reduced, landlocked) nations of Croatia and Slovenia are probably Italian protectorates.
 
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Germaniac

Donor
Alright I'll give you the whole hearted one, but the Russians did not suffer a million losses. They Russians lost half a million in deaths, wounded, captured, and deserters. However, much of this number came after the German counter attacks so in this TL russian losses will be significantly lower.

It wasn't that is wasn't whole hearted in fact it was the great feat of arms Russia had ever attempted, HOWEVER it was intended to be a saving glance, and it failed to do that OTL.

I had ignored Italy when I was thinking TL, These events would have just as much of an effect in Italy as they did in Russia. In Italy, Italian forces will be able to push the retreating Austrians into their territorial goals. With a successful Italian Front and no Wilson there is no reason Italy won't get her claims.

I still think that the Revolution is coming Russia, and that the tsar's government will fall. However I see a Dictatorial "Democracy" with the monarch as a figure head surviving. The Winter is still coming and the inability to transfer large grain surpluses to the cities, especially Petrograd, will still happen.

In Austria the government will sue for peace and Russia will demand Galicia up to the Carpathian mountains. I don't know how they will treat the Balkans, likely during the peace process Russia will want Serbia to gain Bosnia, but will it gain anything else, will Hungary retain its border, what will German Austria do? What will the Romanians in Hungary do.
 

Deleted member 1487

@Germanic: be careful of Stone, he has an imperfect understanding of losses in the east. The Russians did indeed suffer very heavily in the Brussilov offensives. I have also caught Stone making mistakes with German losses, listing 100,000 as the total for the 1st Masurian lakes, while the Sanitsbericht, the bible of German losses in WW1, lists less than 20,000 for the month the battle occurred in. He did the same with the 1914 battle of Lodz too. Which is odd, because in his sources he lists the Sanits as one of them.

There were a series of three Brusilov offensives, one after the other, each bloodier and less successful than the last. The Russians lost between 1-1.5 million men in the offensives, as each was demanded and reinforced by STAVKA that wanted to take advantage of the earlier successes. The northern attacks were not likely to face the same level of success as Brusilov, as they were not in line with his tactics, and the Germans were not nearly as drained as the Austro-Hungarians were. Indeed, they had significantly more firepower and better leadership that did not draw the wrong conclusions from earlier battles. Its likely the Lake Naroch battle writ large.

What is likely to happen is that the attacks in the north prevent the Russians from transferring troops down south to aid Brusilov, which means that after his initial push, he no longer has the strength to keep pushing. Sure, he will roll back the front somewhat, but nowhere near as much as OTL without reinforcements. The northern attacks bleed out on superior German firepower, which admittedly will force the Germans to stop Verdun due to a direct attack on them, but will result in much higher Russians losses than historical. Remember 2/3rds of Russian forces were arrayed against the Germans. It gets the Germans involved much earlier in the fighting, on favorable terms to them, instead of being committed penny-packet into Galicia and swept away in the Austro-Hungarian retreat.

If anything, this helps the Germans more, as it forces Falkenhayn to call of his wasteful Verdun campaign before the British start attacking at the Somme, while the Austrians are able to reconstitute their lines further west (but still far east of Lemberg), as Brusilov is denied reinforcements to feed his campaign.

This really does nothing to prevent Caporetto, though it will end the Strafexpedition as per OTL.

Read AUSTRIA-HUNGARY AND
T H E B R U S I L O V OF F E N S I V E
O F 1 9 1 6 by
GR A Y D O N A . TU N S T A L L
for a much more in depth understanding of the battle and why it happened the way it did.
 
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