The British cannot invade France, nor can they hold Gibraltar indefinitely.
This is very dependent on alliances, as you probably are aware. If all of Continental Europe is opposed to the British, then there is not very much they can do to win the war.
Britain will win the American theatre if there was no ARW, as they would simply move in on the French islands and maintain massive naval superiority. If the Spanish jump in, expect them to lose New Orleans and possibly Cuba or Puerto Rico, as they cannot defend against the Royal Navy nor any landward advances by the American colonists fighting on the British side.
Britain will also win in India. There is no doubt about this.
But if there is no continental power to oppose France, the war simply will not end. The British cannot invade France, nor can they hold Gibraltar indefinitely. If the Prussians or Austrians line up against France, I expect a British victory. If not, expect Hannover to be occupied.
The Admiral Luis de Córdova y Córdova's fleet captured a great British convoys, doing much damage to British military supplies and commerce: the Spanish fleet, led by him, along with a squadron of French ships, encountered thanks to the Spanish Intelligence, a large British convoy. The Spanish and French force captured almost all the British vessels, which dealt a severe blow to the commerce of Great Britain.
The captured British ships were brought to Cádiz, which was an unusual spectacle since the capture of such a great enemy convoy by any navy was an uncommon event; de Córdova's fleet did this on two occasions. All the ships, including the five East Indiaman, were incorporated into the Spanish navy.[19] This was a major intelligence failure, for the British Admiralty did not learn of the capture of the British convoy until 4 August, and neither did Geary nor Captain John Moutray
The British convoy, led by Sir John Moutray, captain of HMS Ramillies and three frigates, sailed from Portsmouth on 27 July.
On 9 August, they encountered the Spanish fleet and the Spaniards captured 52 of 55 British vessels, making it one of the most complete naval captures ever made.
The British lost 80,000 muskets, equipment for 40,000 troops, 294 cannons (the normal British troop size during the American Independence War was 40,000 troops), and 3,144 men. The financial impact of the losses were estimated to be around £1,500,000- (£1,000,000 in gold and £500,000 – £600,000 in equipment and ships). The action also helped to derail a secret British diplomatic effort to make peace with Spain...''
In America : ''... the governor of Spanish Louisiana, Count Bernardo de Gálvez, led a series of successful offensives against the British forts in the Mississippi Valley, first capturing Fort Bute at Manchac and then forcing the surrender of Baton Rouge, Natchez and Mobile in 1779 and 1780.
While a hurricane halted an expedition to capture Pensacola, the capital of British West Florida, in 1780, Gálvez's forces achieved a decisive victory against the British in 1781 at the Battle of Pensacola giving the Spanish control of all of West Florida. This secured the southern route for supplies and closed off the possibility of any British offensive into the western frontier of United States via the Mississippi River.
When Spain entered the war, Britain also went on the offensive in the Caribbean, planning an expedition against Spanish Nicaragua: the British attempt to landing at San Fernando de Omoa was rebuffed in October 1779, and an expedition in 1780 against Fort San Juan in Nicaragua was at first successful, but the British chose a bad target cause of theirs unknowledge of the Spanish colony and the yellow fever and other tropical diseases wiped out most of the force, which then withdrew back to Jamaica. Later an unauthorised Spanish force captured the Bahamas in 1782, without battle. In 1783 Gálvez was preparing to invade Jamaica from Cuba, but these plans were aborted when Britain sued for peace.
Finally the Spanish garrisons in the Louisiana region repelled attacks from British units and the latter's Indian allies in the Battle of Saint Louis in 1780. A year later, a detachment travelled through present-day Illinois and took Fort St. Joseph, in the modern state of Michigan.
It's spilt.the entire attraction of Gibraltar, aside from how cool it looks on a map, is that is is indeed very, very resilient to attack. It's not impossible, but it's a very good point to project power and to resist attack.
never say never, but Gibraltar can be kept for a long, long time. and the funny thing is that the main reason they kept it after the american revolution is that they defended it for so long against the siege. Britain gov't was ready to give it up, but the populace said hell no, we spilled blood for this rock. so they kept it.
at some point, I forget exactly when, britain offered up Gibraltar if Spain joined their side against France.
eventually, it became known that it was an important chokepoint worth holding on to, but that was the 1800's
It's spilt.
It's spilt.
In regard to extra ships built in British America, wasn't there the problem that the North American oak which the British mistook for being the same type of tree as their usual English oak was actually a different species, less well-suited to ship-building, and resulted in ships much more fragile against bad weather, which was a problem for Great Britain in OTL's ARW? That suggests that extra ships built in British America wouldn't be particularly useful for Great Britain, unless they managed to figure this out earlier.
In regard to extra ships built in British America, wasn't there the problem that the North American oak which the British mistook for being the same type of tree as their usual English oak was actually a different species, less well-suited to ship-building, and resulted in ships much more fragile against bad weather, which was a problem for Great Britain in OTL's ARW? That suggests that extra ships built in British America wouldn't be particularly useful for Great Britain, unless they managed to figure this out earlier.
A lot depends if the American colonies are happy with whatever negotiated settlement there was or if there was at least a persistent minority unhappy with the status quo and willing to intrigue with the French.
Given some problems exposed in the Royal Navy in the ARW (and subsequently looked at under Pitt the Younger prior to the French Revolutionary Wars), one would expect the French to perform a bit better than in the Seven Years' War.
A good question is whether there would even be a significant colonial theatre of war - it might depend on whether other countries such as Spain or Russia are involved in the alliance system.