Who would win the next French-British war if the ARW was averted?

If the American Revolution was avoided diplomatically, who would win the next war between the French and the British?
 

TinyTartar

Banned
This is very dependent on alliances, as you probably are aware. If all of Continental Europe is opposed to the British, then there is not very much they can do to win the war.

Britain will win the American theatre if there was no ARW, as they would simply move in on the French islands and maintain massive naval superiority. If the Spanish jump in, expect them to lose New Orleans and possibly Cuba or Puerto Rico, as they cannot defend against the Royal Navy nor any landward advances by the American colonists fighting on the British side.

Britain will also win in India. There is no doubt about this.

But if there is no continental power to oppose France, the war simply will not end. The British cannot invade France, nor can they hold Gibraltar indefinitely. If the Prussians or Austrians line up against France, I expect a British victory. If not, expect Hannover to be occupied.
 
Well, the overall trend during the 18th century was Britain getting stronger relative to France. Assuming no unforeseen circumstances, I'd expect Britain to win. (Although not by much, since the British wouldn't have been able to beat the French on the latter's home turf; most likely they'd blockade France and pick off her colonies, any peace treaty more or less confirming the status quo.)
 
Spanish war effort in ARW

This is very dependent on alliances, as you probably are aware. If all of Continental Europe is opposed to the British, then there is not very much they can do to win the war.

Britain will win the American theatre if there was no ARW, as they would simply move in on the French islands and maintain massive naval superiority. If the Spanish jump in, expect them to lose New Orleans and possibly Cuba or Puerto Rico, as they cannot defend against the Royal Navy nor any landward advances by the American colonists fighting on the British side.

Britain will also win in India. There is no doubt about this.

But if there is no continental power to oppose France, the war simply will not end. The British cannot invade France, nor can they hold Gibraltar indefinitely. If the Prussians or Austrians line up against France, I expect a British victory. If not, expect Hannover to be occupied.


Spanish-British war in the A.R.W. :

In Europa,the siege of Gibraltar, failed but the combined Franco-Spanish invasion of Minorca in 1781 met with more success; Minorca surrendered the following year and was restored to Spain after the war.


The Admiral Luis de Córdova y Córdova's fleet captured a great British convoys, doing much damage to British military supplies and commerce: the Spanish fleet, led by him, along with a squadron of French ships, encountered thanks to the Spanish Intelligence, a large British convoy. The Spanish and French force captured almost all the British vessels, which dealt a severe blow to the commerce of Great Britain.

The captured British ships were brought to Cádiz, which was an unusual spectacle since the capture of such a great enemy convoy by any navy was an uncommon event; de Córdova's fleet did this on two occasions. All the ships, including the five East Indiaman, were incorporated into the Spanish navy.[19] This was a major intelligence failure, for the British Admiralty did not learn of the capture of the British convoy until 4 August, and neither did Geary nor Captain John Moutray

The British convoy, led by Sir John Moutray, captain of HMS Ramillies and three frigates, sailed from Portsmouth on 27 July.

On 9 August, they encountered the Spanish fleet and the Spaniards captured 52 of 55 British vessels, making it one of the most complete naval captures ever made.

The British lost 80,000 muskets, equipment for 40,000 troops, 294 cannons (the normal British troop size during the American Independence War was 40,000 troops), and 3,144 men. The financial impact of the losses were estimated to be around £1,500,000- (£1,000,000 in gold and £500,000 – £600,000 in equipment and ships). The action also helped to derail a secret British diplomatic effort to make peace with Spain...''



In America : ''... the governor of Spanish Louisiana, Count Bernardo de Gálvez, led a series of successful offensives against the British forts in the Mississippi Valley, first capturing Fort Bute at Manchac and then forcing the surrender of Baton Rouge, Natchez and Mobile in 1779 and 1780.

While a hurricane halted an expedition to capture Pensacola, the capital of British West Florida, in 1780, Gálvez's forces achieved a decisive victory against the British in 1781 at the Battle of Pensacola giving the Spanish control of all of West Florida. This secured the southern route for supplies and closed off the possibility of any British offensive into the western frontier of United States via the Mississippi River.

When Spain entered the war, Britain also went on the offensive in the Caribbean, planning an expedition against Spanish Nicaragua: the British attempt to landing at San Fernando de Omoa was rebuffed in October 1779, and an expedition in 1780 against Fort San Juan in Nicaragua was at first successful, but the British chose a bad target cause of theirs unknowledge of the Spanish colony and the yellow fever and other tropical diseases wiped out most of the force, which then withdrew back to Jamaica. Later an unauthorised Spanish force captured the Bahamas in 1782, without battle. In 1783 Gálvez was preparing to invade Jamaica from Cuba, but these plans were aborted when Britain sued for peace.

Finally the Spanish garrisons in the Louisiana region repelled attacks from British units and the latter's Indian allies in the Battle of Saint Louis in 1780. A year later, a detachment travelled through present-day Illinois and took Fort St. Joseph, in the modern state of Michigan.
 
the entire attraction of Gibraltar, aside from how cool it looks on a map, is that is is indeed very, very resilient to attack. It's not impossible, but it's a very good point to project power and to resist attack.

never say never, but Gibraltar can be kept for a long, long time. and the funny thing is that the main reason they kept it after the american revolution is that they defended it for so long against the siege. Britain gov't was ready to give it up, but the populace said hell no, we spilled blood for this rock. so they kept it.
at some point, I forget exactly when, britain offered up Gibraltar if Spain joined their side against France.

eventually, it became known that it was an important chokepoint worth holding on to, but that was the 1800's
 
During the reign of Louis XVI the French navy had been expanding considerably, though this had begun in the late 1760s. This was a reaction to France's naval weakness during the Seven Years War. Spain too had begun rebuilding its navy as a result of the war. By 1770, the combined naval tonnage of France and Spain exceeded that of Britain, with 380,000 tons vs 350,000 tons for the Royal Navy. What was even more significant was that many of the Royal Navy's ships were obsolete from the War of Austrian succession.

During the 1775-1785 period, Britain rebuilt its navy but was still slightly smaller than the Bourbon Navies. The naval programmed continued and by 1789 the combined French and Spanish navies were back to being 20% larger than the Royal Navy. What really pushed the royal navy ahead during the revolutionary wars was the majority of French officers emigrating, allowing many ships to be captured by the British and 1793.
 
the entire attraction of Gibraltar, aside from how cool it looks on a map, is that is is indeed very, very resilient to attack. It's not impossible, but it's a very good point to project power and to resist attack.

never say never, but Gibraltar can be kept for a long, long time. and the funny thing is that the main reason they kept it after the american revolution is that they defended it for so long against the siege. Britain gov't was ready to give it up, but the populace said hell no, we spilled blood for this rock. so they kept it.
at some point, I forget exactly when, britain offered up Gibraltar if Spain joined their side against France.

eventually, it became known that it was an important chokepoint worth holding on to, but that was the 1800's
It's spilt.
 
It's spilt.

This is a British vs American English thing.

On navies, it sounds like it depends on the year of the war. Up to about 1780 the British will probably edge it as they have the better trained crews even if they're slightly outnumbered. Post 1790, as long as there's no revolution the Bourbons are favoured.

But this of course does not factor in any extra ships built in America.
 
In regard to extra ships built in British America, wasn't there the problem that the North American oak which the British mistook for being the same type of tree as their usual English oak was actually a different species, less well-suited to ship-building, and resulted in ships much more fragile against bad weather, which was a problem for Great Britain in OTL's ARW? That suggests that extra ships built in British America wouldn't be particularly useful for Great Britain, unless they managed to figure this out earlier.
 
In regard to extra ships built in British America, wasn't there the problem that the North American oak which the British mistook for being the same type of tree as their usual English oak was actually a different species, less well-suited to ship-building, and resulted in ships much more fragile against bad weather, which was a problem for Great Britain in OTL's ARW? That suggests that extra ships built in British America wouldn't be particularly useful for Great Britain, unless they managed to figure this out earlier.

Do you have a source for this?
 
In regard to extra ships built in British America, wasn't there the problem that the North American oak which the British mistook for being the same type of tree as their usual English oak was actually a different species, less well-suited to ship-building, and resulted in ships much more fragile against bad weather, which was a problem for Great Britain in OTL's ARW? That suggests that extra ships built in British America wouldn't be particularly useful for Great Britain, unless they managed to figure this out earlier.

This would surprise me, given that America's own frigates did just fine.
 
American Oak was more susceptible to dry rot, particularly northern oak felled during the winter and the logs were then subject to long periods of exposure to moisture, inevitably leading to dry rot. In the U.S. there was preference for oak from further south as a result of this. The lack of sawmills was partially to blame, particularly for oak from Canada, with logs often exposed to moisture after having been felled. In contrast, Baltic fir and pine was considered to be amongst the best used in ships due to it being cut into planks almost immediately.
 

Thande

Donor
A lot depends if the American colonies are happy with whatever negotiated settlement there was or if there was at least a persistent minority unhappy with the status quo and willing to intrigue with the French.

Given some problems exposed in the Royal Navy in the ARW (and subsequently looked at under Pitt the Younger prior to the French Revolutionary Wars), one would expect the French to perform a bit better than in the Seven Years' War.

A good question is whether there would even be a significant colonial theatre of war - it might depend on whether other countries such as Spain or Russia are involved in the alliance system.
 
A lot depends if the American colonies are happy with whatever negotiated settlement there was or if there was at least a persistent minority unhappy with the status quo and willing to intrigue with the French.

Given some problems exposed in the Royal Navy in the ARW (and subsequently looked at under Pitt the Younger prior to the French Revolutionary Wars), one would expect the French to perform a bit better than in the Seven Years' War.

A good question is whether there would even be a significant colonial theatre of war - it might depend on whether other countries such as Spain or Russia are involved in the alliance system.

I think we'd have to assume the Family Compact remained intact. There's almost inevitably going to be a colonial naval theatre in the Caribbean.
 
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