It's been often discussed what Nixon's second term would have been like without the Watergate Scandal, particularly in foreign policy. I've contributed my thoughts on that part at length. But what about the next election?
I personally think that Reagan would win the 1976 nomination for the GOP. Nixon's not going to be happy about it(he would want John Connally), but Reagan would be far too red hot, and far too skilled of an operator not to pick it up, as he nearly unseated the incumbent Ford OTL. Vice President Ford would not be interested in being President ATL-he only did it OTL out of duty. Rockefeller would continue the path to irrelevance, Dole and Bush would stand no chance against Reagan both due to experience and political skill. If you think I'm wrong, please correct me.
Beyond that I have no idea-the Democratic nomination is truly up for grabs. Without Watergate, though, I think it's fair to say that they can't mentally pass off 1972 as a fluke ATL(which is good for them in the long run), so it'll probably not be someone from the left wing of the party. Carter is a Southern proto-New Dem and a likely dark horse, but I just don't see him having the same resonance without Watergate-in many ways, he was an anti-Nixon much like Reagan was an anti-Carter. I think the election itself could go either way. It's no slam dunk by any means for the Democrats, as Carter could barely beat Ford OTL, but the economy is going to suck and Nixon's Gaullist style of rule will grate. Both parties might have inter-ideological conflicts.
The dynamics of both parties, ideologically speaking, in the longer term would also be an interesting question. The lineup of Presidents could be quite different. Keep in mind, if elected, Reagan can't "be Reagan" as per OTL 1980 without Watergate, Carter, and events abroad.
I personally think that Reagan would win the 1976 nomination for the GOP. Nixon's not going to be happy about it(he would want John Connally), but Reagan would be far too red hot, and far too skilled of an operator not to pick it up, as he nearly unseated the incumbent Ford OTL. Vice President Ford would not be interested in being President ATL-he only did it OTL out of duty. Rockefeller would continue the path to irrelevance, Dole and Bush would stand no chance against Reagan both due to experience and political skill. If you think I'm wrong, please correct me.
Beyond that I have no idea-the Democratic nomination is truly up for grabs. Without Watergate, though, I think it's fair to say that they can't mentally pass off 1972 as a fluke ATL(which is good for them in the long run), so it'll probably not be someone from the left wing of the party. Carter is a Southern proto-New Dem and a likely dark horse, but I just don't see him having the same resonance without Watergate-in many ways, he was an anti-Nixon much like Reagan was an anti-Carter. I think the election itself could go either way. It's no slam dunk by any means for the Democrats, as Carter could barely beat Ford OTL, but the economy is going to suck and Nixon's Gaullist style of rule will grate. Both parties might have inter-ideological conflicts.
The dynamics of both parties, ideologically speaking, in the longer term would also be an interesting question. The lineup of Presidents could be quite different. Keep in mind, if elected, Reagan can't "be Reagan" as per OTL 1980 without Watergate, Carter, and events abroad.