Who would win the 1976 election if the Watergate Scandal never happened?

It's been often discussed what Nixon's second term would have been like without the Watergate Scandal, particularly in foreign policy. I've contributed my thoughts on that part at length. But what about the next election?

I personally think that Reagan would win the 1976 nomination for the GOP. Nixon's not going to be happy about it(he would want John Connally), but Reagan would be far too red hot, and far too skilled of an operator not to pick it up, as he nearly unseated the incumbent Ford OTL. Vice President Ford would not be interested in being President ATL-he only did it OTL out of duty. Rockefeller would continue the path to irrelevance, Dole and Bush would stand no chance against Reagan both due to experience and political skill. If you think I'm wrong, please correct me.

Beyond that I have no idea-the Democratic nomination is truly up for grabs. Without Watergate, though, I think it's fair to say that they can't mentally pass off 1972 as a fluke ATL(which is good for them in the long run), so it'll probably not be someone from the left wing of the party. Carter is a Southern proto-New Dem and a likely dark horse, but I just don't see him having the same resonance without Watergate-in many ways, he was an anti-Nixon much like Reagan was an anti-Carter. I think the election itself could go either way. It's no slam dunk by any means for the Democrats, as Carter could barely beat Ford OTL, but the economy is going to suck and Nixon's Gaullist style of rule will grate. Both parties might have inter-ideological conflicts.

The dynamics of both parties, ideologically speaking, in the longer term would also be an interesting question. The lineup of Presidents could be quite different. Keep in mind, if elected, Reagan can't "be Reagan" as per OTL 1980 without Watergate, Carter, and events abroad.
 

Sabot Cat

Banned
Seems like the Republican nominee would win handily considering how close the OTL election was despite Watergate.
 

shiftygiant

Gone Fishin'
Bearing in mind that OTL 1976 was kinda a hot mess that only Ford and Reagan wanted to be Republican nominee for, there's going to be a pretty big scramble for 'the heir to Nixon'.

Whoever is Nixon's Veep after Agnew will be crucial. He may go John Connolly and give the guy the advantage, given how he considered him his successor- he may still go with Ford, but Ford was chosen largely due to his position in the House that would help is Nixon faced Impeachment over the then emerging issue of Watergate- if it never happened, he's unlikely to be chosen. Reagan is possible, but Nixon didn't have a high opinion of the guy. Though Reagan may do well over a larger field in the Republican Primaries.

It's worth noting though that Nixon didn't go Connolly due to an emerging scandal surrounding him.

Others may be George Bush, who was set to be Nixon's VP in '68 at the Convention before Nixon declared he wanted Agnew, and was considered in '74. High Scott and Howard Baker are also possible.
 
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