Heh, if you ask me, the likelihood of nukes flying in an 1980's WWIII is as likely as gas going off in WWII though somewhat more higher than the latter in regards to nukes.The odds are that the war would not last much more than a few weeks before one side or the other goes nuclear. I don't think surrender on either sides agenda.
And as for who would win a 1980's ground war between the Warpact and NATO, I'd say the latter since they wouldn't have to worry about dissent and enemy saboteurs compared to what the WarPact would considering the instability the WarPact faced IOTL; not to mention that the Soviets worrying about anti-Soviet uprisings within its borders would sap its strength to fight a WWIII. That and the economies of NATO would sustain material and supplies to fight a WWIII in the long run given that they haven't faced much economic problems as much as the Soviets did IOTL.
Of course all of this assuming not one side gets pushed to use nukes after a few months of war; but then again when the war starts can have an impact on how the war goes after it starts.