NoMommsen
Donor
Continuation pf post #40
Now for a possible course of events :
How this might play out at first :
Next round in september will be with now 6 to maybe 7 (don't have all the numbers and dates of availability of all the reserves) (purely) german armies against
7 maybe 8, perhaps even 9 russian armies of which at least 2 are still far from being fully fight-worthy yet.
With this ratio-of-troop and the OTL-performance of russian vs. german troops ... tbh : I am not too afraid for the germans on this front.
I could well see them on a line Memel - Kovno - Grodno - Sjedlice - Lublin- San/Vistula-triangle at the change of 1914/15.
Meanwhile in the west :
The french having no other route to attack as OTL into Lorrain and Alsac and bleed them self white without gaining much of territory, probably/maybe even losing some in front of their fortress line Verdun-Nancy-Toul and Epinal-Belfort.
Some game the germans would be able to play almost indefinitly.
Some other IMO considerable change in such a TL :
IOTL here the russian got some hefty bloody noses from the germans but could at least "claim" the Vistula and Lodz as an "achievement" in not being bashed as at Tannenberg.
ITTL the don't have such a "victory"-equivalent or real victories as conquering Lemberg an most of Galicia and the Bukowina, touching, almost crossing the Carpathians to show to their populace as IOTL.
ITTL the "only" get bloddy noses.
How would the populace and public in Russia ... "like" this ?
Without involvement of others - as stated by the OP - this would in the end result in a german victory with possibly France and Russia "looking" (not "suing"/"begging") for peace shortly before tsarist Russia collapses, resulting in some kind of negotiated peace (maybe brokered by Britain ?).
Now for a possible course of events :
How this might play out at first :
- from 15th/17th August up to about the 30th August a "Tannenberg" south the border and a "Masurian Lakes I+II" around Suwalki/Augustowo-forest wiht reducing of russian 1st as well as 2nd army in OTL Tannenberg levels, while 4th army stll heavily beaten in futile attempts to cross the Njemen/Memel, its remnants (though still considerable) thrown back towards/around Kovno.
- Russian 5th and 3rd armies clash with the "Silesian Army" between Lodz and Krakow and will have to break away, after some sort of beating though not as devastating, to cover Warsaw after the defeat of the "northern" russians.
Next round in september will be with now 6 to maybe 7 (don't have all the numbers and dates of availability of all the reserves) (purely) german armies against
7 maybe 8, perhaps even 9 russian armies of which at least 2 are still far from being fully fight-worthy yet.
With this ratio-of-troop and the OTL-performance of russian vs. german troops ... tbh : I am not too afraid for the germans on this front.
I could well see them on a line Memel - Kovno - Grodno - Sjedlice - Lublin- San/Vistula-triangle at the change of 1914/15.
Meanwhile in the west :
The french having no other route to attack as OTL into Lorrain and Alsac and bleed them self white without gaining much of territory, probably/maybe even losing some in front of their fortress line Verdun-Nancy-Toul and Epinal-Belfort.
Some game the germans would be able to play almost indefinitly.
Some other IMO considerable change in such a TL :
IOTL here the russian got some hefty bloody noses from the germans but could at least "claim" the Vistula and Lodz as an "achievement" in not being bashed as at Tannenberg.
ITTL the don't have such a "victory"-equivalent or real victories as conquering Lemberg an most of Galicia and the Bukowina, touching, almost crossing the Carpathians to show to their populace as IOTL.
ITTL the "only" get bloddy noses.
How would the populace and public in Russia ... "like" this ?
Without involvement of others - as stated by the OP - this would in the end result in a german victory with possibly France and Russia "looking" (not "suing"/"begging") for peace shortly before tsarist Russia collapses, resulting in some kind of negotiated peace (maybe brokered by Britain ?).