Who Would the CSA go after first, Cuba or Northern Mexico?

Who would the Confederacy go after First?

  • Cuba

    Votes: 43 35.0%
  • Northern Mexico (Baja California, Sonora, Chihuahua, Nuevo León, Tamaulipas and Coahuila)

    Votes: 48 39.0%
  • Niether

    Votes: 32 26.0%

  • Total voters
    123
I'm thinking about doing a Socialist Confederacy TL and I came up with a idea for it. I just wanted to know your guys' opinion.
Northern Mexico is more likely one because the CSA will not spending time getting Cuba who was already Colony of Spain.

Northern Mexico is likely a Ally, so I think it a Perfect to CSA extend
 
I said Cuba. Prior to the Civil War, Southerners expressed intense interest in annexing Cuba, including at least one filibustering expedition that made it to Cuba and a couple more that never got out of American harbors. Cuba as part of the US would add to the roster of slave states. That's not a factor assuming an independent CSA, but another big factor is. There was a lot of Southern concern that if slavery was abolished in Cuba, whether through the British imposing it or the Spanish liberalizing, it would endanger slavery in the South. They were worried about Cuba becoming Haiti 2.0, and annexation was viewed as a way to prevent that. Many Cuban slave-owning elites also worried about that and viewed the US (IOTL) as a potential means to combat that happening. So if slavery is threatened in Cuba, the CSA may try to intervene in order to protect slavery.

This is not a factor in northern Mexico.
 
Definitively Cuba, they still had a slaveholder aristocracy that could be coopted and integrated by the Dixiecrats. Trying to annex Northern Mexico is just asking for more problems along the way.
 
Southern Victory almost requires the French to at least be supportive, and the French are in Mexico at this time. Either butterflies mean they can hold on to it (in which case the Confederacy can't go nibbling), or the Mexicans are strong enough to push them out, which makes it a very challenging ask for the surely-exhausted Confederate Army.

Cuba, on the other hand, was something that was already desired by many Confederates, and Spain was much weaker than France. They could lose control of Cuba to a much weaker Cuban force, and thus be the easier prize (presuming the Confederates build a navy, but they're going to want one even if it's third-rate).
 
it'd probably be Cuba, in 1868 a rebellion against Spanish rule in Cuba occurred, it's possible this could lead to an alternate Spanish-Confederate war, which could lead to the confederates getting the Philippines
 
I'd say northern Mexico as long as the Mexican Empire remains a French puppet and France is friendly enough with the Confederacy to allow them to make such a purchase.
 
Northern Mexico is more likely one because the CSA will not spending time getting Cuba who was already Colony of Spain.

Northern Mexico is likely a Ally, so I think it a Perfect to CSA extend
hmm invasion not going to happen if there are French troops sitting in Mexico, and absent a Union Victory there would be The CSA can not afford to fight France. I don;t think a surviving Maximilian would sell to the CSA unless the French absolutely forced him and doing that will be absolutely badly received by many in Paris and even more badly in London.,
 
Confederates probably keep their 1861 borders + maybe Oklahoma-West Virginia and in spite of occasional bluster by some politicians work on their own country, in spite of the imperialist dreams of a few radicals.

This is particularly true if victory is in 63-64 when war weariness and reality sets in.
 
hmm invasion not going to happen if there are French troops sitting in Mexico, and absent a Union Victory there would be The CSA can not afford to fight France. I don;t think a surviving Maximilian would sell to the CSA unless the French absolutely forced him and doing that will be absolutely badly received by many in Paris and even more badly in London.,

IIRC the French hoped to gain territory from the Confederacy as they did from Piedmont with Italian unification, perhaps Texas as repayment. I do not see them giving territory.
 
I voted only for Cuba, but only because the question said nothing about Confederate success. Spain in the 1860s and 1870s was still a considerable power with a large fleet. Would the smaller and less industrially developed Confederacy be able to defeat Spain a generation before 1898?
 
I would think Cuba. Because with a victorious C.S.A., the French and their puppet ruler would probably still control Mexico, and France always leaned more towards the Confederacy during the war.
 
I'm sure that the CSA would love to go after Cuba. But let's be realistic.

Are they going to walk there?

1) The CSA had no blue water navy and weren't likely to build one without decades of money and effort. An effective naval tradition is not built overnight.

2) Neither the Americans, nor the French nor the British are likely to welcome the Confederacy into a commanding position in the Caribbean.

3) The CSA had no effective logistical capacity. They really had no ability to maintain an army in the field outside their borders.

4) The rebels looking for independence were all anti-slavery in Cuba. The pro-slavery faction in Cuba were spanish loyalists.

5) The Spanish actually did have the ability to maintain armies in the field. And they had an actual navy.

The Spanish aren't going to sell Cuba cheap, not voluntarily, and not at gunpoint. The Spanish navy has more than enough ships and firepower to sink anything that dreams of being a Confederate navy until at least the 1890s, the only classes that would support outsiders are anti-slavery and would consider the Confederacy devils, and the pro-slavery constituency is deeply loyal to Spain. By Confederate standards of racism there are no white people there, just various forms of mixed black and foreign. It's difficult hill country. And pretty much every other power active in the region has a vested interest in them not taking it. Nope. It's not on.

They'd likely go after internal regions of northern Mexico. Thinly populated, Remote from anywhere or anyone that could intervene.

But again, its a no-sell. The Confederacy had almost no ability to maintain an army in the field beyond their borders for any length of time, and they certainly had no ability to fight a guerilla war against the locals. The northern states weren't that thinly populated. The French won't sell, Maximillion won't sell and Juarez won't. There's no ability to take and hold it.



They'd want Cuba. They have no ability to take it. They'd want Northern Mexico as a consolation prize. It's unlikely that they could take it. Hell, Texas couldn't even control all its territory prior to the Civil war.
 
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Touch northern Mexico their allies the Imperialistas at Mexico collapses cause Max will probably get couped or like that by the Mexican army for selling out the country.

You know what happened to Santa Anna right? Unlike Max Santa Anna knows politicking, and can like easily grab the presidency back. Even if we all know he already sold like the Gadsden purchase.
 
That’s a common and a very wrong notion that the USA and CSA would both become superpowers (a condition the US reached only in 1945 under very specific circumstances) and they both proceed to control the rest of the world.

The CSA might want to conquer either Cuba or northern Mexico, but they would fail miserably and the US might even seize the opportunity to attack them. Slavery would become more and more a liability, so they’d have plenty of domestic issues to deal with.
 

Grey Wolf

Donor
I think the CSA might certainly be INTERESTED in Cuba, and in some very specific set of circumstances might be able to intervene in some way, BUT QUESTIONS:-

- It's a Spanish possession and the Spanish never seemed likely to give it up
- Spain does have internal troubles lasting into the 1860s, so there may be a window there
- Would a victorious CSA be a French ally, or a British ally, from the war, or just have recognition but nothing else?
- What remnants of their navy does the Confederacy have at victory? Presumably something, but is it mainly riverine?
- Now, monitors CAN get to Cuba and if the CSA can do this before Spain recovers stability there is a window for action
- BUT if they do not, then a resurgant Spain with a modernising blue water navy is going to sink them
 
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Beyond the question of whether Mexico and Spain would be able to wage defensive wars, it is difficult to imagine other countries supporting these Confederate wars. Britain and France might accept an independent Confederacy, but neither would support an expansion of slavery to new territories within their spheres of influence. We can also expect that the Union, bound to be much stronger than the Confederacy, would also react badly.
 
They would try to take Cuba, the desire was there and the plantation economy was more amenable to the institution of slavery. They might succeed in the short term but local rebellions would likely turn it into a quagmire. Spanish attempts to hold the island in the 1880s were about as brutal as the Confederates would be and likely to be similarly ineffective. I could see the US supporting the Cubans as a way of weakening the Confederacy.
 
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