Who would Qing Dynasty should sided with in World War 2?

[EmperorBuaya]

Based on the post by Nathan Bernacki in regards to hypothetical surviving Qing Dynasty, this time on World War 2.

(I know the first half of this may seem irrelevant, but I think it's important to explain the history of China during the war for some context)

In our timeline, starting on August 6th 1914, the Republic of China proclaimed neutrality in World War I. However, there were several politicians (which included officials left over from the Qing era) who believed that involvement in the war could help boost Chinese prestige in the world. In January 1915, Japan used it's position as one of the Allies to not only keep troops in formerly German Qingdao, but also send 21 Demands to Yuan Shikai, which not only reinforced Japanese control over China, but in exchange, the Japanese would help Yuan Shikai become Emperor. Yuan accepted the demands, but the demands and Yuan's acceptance of them were met by a outraged Chinese public. In November 1915, the Second Chinese Empire was declared with Yuan as Emperor, but the Chinese public was outraged, leading to the National Protection War. The negative public reception also convinced the Japanese to change course and begin supporting the republicans. Yuan would abdicate in March 1916. His death created a large power vacuum, which led to his former generals becoming warlords of their own cliques.

Involvement of the war became a divisive issue among the cliques with the Anhui supporting involvement, but the Zhili wanted restraint. After a second failed restoration of the throne engineered by Zhang Xun which ended in Duan Qirui's Anhui Republican Army overthrowing Zhang, Duan effectively took over Beijing and declared war on the Central Powers on August 14th 1917.

In 1918, in response to the Bolshevik Revolution, Duan would sign the Sino-Japanese Agreement of Joint Defence Against Enemies with Japan, which enabled Japan to extend it's military presence in China, mainly Manchuria.

But let's say that none of this happened. The Qing Dynasty was able to survive the 1911 Xinhai Revolution with the child emperor still on the throne, wielding absolute authority. The Qing Dynasty is able to survive into August 1914, when World War I begins.

As I said before, when the Xinhai Revolution resulted in the overthrow of the Qing Dynasty, many of the officials who wanted China to pick a side in the war were leftovers from the Qing era. With that being said, who does the Qing Dynasty support? The Central Powers or the Entente? Or do they remain neutral to avoid further humiliation at the hands of the Europeans, but they're forced to contend with Japanese imperialism as the ROC was in our timeline? If they do choose a side of the war, what would be the effects of siding with either the victors or the losers?

Based on information by Nathan Bernacki's and hypothetical surviving Qing Dynasty, assuming Qing China survives WW1 and hold on to their rule over China, With that being said, who does the Qing Dynasty support? The Axis or the Allies? Or do they remain neutral to avoid further humiliation at the hands of the Europeans, but they're forced to contend with Japanese imperialism as the ROC was in our timeline? If anything, what would be the effects of siding with either the victors or the losers?

 

[EmperorBuaya]

This question depends on who they sided with in World War I and the effects from that choice. So, in your scenario, who did they side with in World War I?

Going by China's OTL route, they sided with the Entente in World War 1. Partly, to restore 'honour' and 'prestige' of Chinese power and it's easy for them to conquer German Tsingtao. That is if they get there on time before the Japanese does. If the Qing sided with Central Powers, it'll be more or less suicide, they'll ended up getting attacked at all sides by the Entente powers, even the Qing has succeeded in expelling the foreign concessions. Thus, it's more highly likely Qing will collapsed at the end of WW1, whether from Entente or Xinhai Revolution 2.0.

If I was the Qing Dynasty in WW1, I'll try to be neutral and watched both Entente and Central Powers duke it out. And then try to salvage the best of the situation at the end of WW1 including acquiring the lands from foreign concessions diplomatically.

 

[Kaze]

The reason why China want with the Entente was two fold. Firstly - they could seize the German colony in Tsingdao, unfortunately Versailles (much to Chinese protest) gave it to someone else. Secondly, there was a minor coup attempt to placed in a pro-German government within China backed by some German intelligence. The coup attempt was a bloody failure. As soon as the blood letting was over, the Chinese declared war on the central powers.

========

Now for the OP ---

It would depend on the 1'000 pound tiger in the room - Japan. If the Qing somehow survived, I would say that the Qing's best option would be neutral until Japan acts. Then side on whomever side benefits their survival.

 

[Pelranius]

They'll probably do a Turkey and jump in the latter stages of the war, assuming that Japan doesn't do anything itself.

 

[bernardz]

China has two immediate threats, Russia and Japan. Assuming the OTL holds and Russia goes with the Allies and Japan with the Axis any decision one way or the other potentially means war.

This question depends on who they sided with in World War I and the effects from that choice. So, in your scenario, who did they side with in World War I?

Japan in ww1 sided with the Allies and in ww2 with the Axis.

 

[Agra]

I mean I assume Japanese imperialism wouldn't really give them a choice in the matter

 

[SenatorChickpea]

This is a classic 'Rome meets the Aztecs' question, where someone asks 'if the Roman Empire didn't fall in 476, what would their relations with Mesoamerica be like?' ignoring every contingent step in between.


Any scenario where the Qing are ruling China in 1937 is going to result in such a fundamental reshaping of East Asia that the Pacific War as we understand it won't happen. Do the Japanese have any presence in Manchuria? What happened to the leaders who in our timeline would run the CCP and KMT? Does the Taisho democracy fail? Did the Qing hold on to Mongolia, and how did that effect the Russian Civil War? What's happen in Xinjiang and East Turkestan? What's the status of the foreign concessions?

Far more fundamentally: Who's ruling China? For one thing, let's absolutely rule out the idea that the absolute monarchy has survived. There's simply no way that's happening. The court was already losing power in the first decade of the twentieth century. They can only survive 1911 either by granting power to a constitutional assembly or putting themselves in the hands of a military government. Does this new government actually have any control beyond the capital? There doesn't need to be a full warlord era for the continued decay in central authority to cause problems for China.

And even once all these questions are answered- and assuming that the massive changes in Asia don't butterfly the highly contingent state of affairs in Europe, which is in and of itself a hell of an assumption- you now need to ask about the war.
Why would a war break out? Who is fighting? What are they fighting over? How is this war going to connect to a wider conflict that is a world war?


In short, the thread is putting an entire wagon train before the horse.

 

[AussieHawker]

There are a lot of permutations.

The Axis angle could be Japan and China sort out their issues, and plan on splitting the Europeans possessions in East Asia between them. So joint occupations of the colonies and maybe invasions of the USSR. But that requires the Japanese to be willing to be the junior partner either now or in the future. Which seems unlikely.

Or it could be that Japan has maintained it British alliance, with Britain leery of a rising China as a bigger threat. Germany maintains it relationship with China, but unless they have massively grown I doubt they will help with the USSR. But they could tie up a lot of the British in Indochina. The Indian army could grow to be very big, well beyond it million size to fend off China. America wouldn't be hit by any Pearl Harbor strike, but would force themselves into the European front through extending the naval zones and combating the U boats. Thought maybe a formal declaration waits til 1942. However America could very well not be in the mood to help the Japenese Imperialism in China, unless the Chinese are dumb enough to provoke them, which they have less reason to do then OTL Japan.

The Allies or Neutral are more natural choices I think.

 

[A Piece of History]

China has two immediate threats, Russia and Japan. Assuming the OTL holds and Russia goes with the Allies and Japan with the Axis any decision one way or the other potentially means war.



Japan in ww1 sided with the Allies and in ww2 with the Axis.

Japan is a whole different animal than China. I don't think you can make that comparison.