Who would Peter III pick as King of Poland?

In our timeline Catherine the Great picked her lover, Stanislaw August Poniatowski, as the Russian candidate for King of Poland. But what happens if Peter III survives his coup and stays for the longer haul as Tsar? Who does he pick? Poniatowski, the next Wettin in line, or someone else?
 
In our timeline Catherine the Great picked her lover, Stanislaw August Poniatowski, as the Russian candidate for King of Poland. But what happens if Peter III survives his coup and stays for the longer haul as Tsar? Who does he pick? Poniatowski, the next Wettin in line, or someone else?

The Wettins were the traditional Russian Choice. Poniatowski were the Pro-French Candidate
 
That is true, but Peter III wasn't a traditional Russian Tsar. I was wondering if he might pick a Hohenzollen, like Prince Henry of Prussia?

If he did, he'd immediately be couped by the Aristocracy in favor of Catherine. Prussia and Russia were enemies at this point in time on a number of occasions. The Last thing Russia would want is a Hohenzollern King of Poland.
 
If he did, he'd immediately be couped by the Aristocracy in favor of Catherine. Prussia and Russia were enemies at this point in time on a number of occasions. The Last thing Russia would want is a Hohenzollern King of Poland.

Although if Peter had survived his coup he would certainly have imprisoned or executed the most active would-be conspirators and installed a loyal household guard (probably of Germans). He would have also reinstituted a Russia-Prussia-Britain alliance against the Bourbon-Habsburg axis.
 
Although if Peter had survived his coup he would certainly have imprisoned or executed the most active would-be conspirators and installed a loyal household guard (probably of Germans). He would have also reinstituted a Russia-Prussia-Britain alliance against the Bourbon-Habsburg axis.

The problem then becomes one of international response. If Peter puts forward a hohenzollern candidate for the throne of Poland-Lithuania, then Austria and France are going to back a different candidate, probably a Wettin. Austria and France together can swing any vote in the Sejm against Russia and the Prussians did not cultivate a faction in the Sejm at this time, as they had limited enough resources that they could not afford to bribe too many Sejmjiks.

Odds are the Franco-Austrian Candidate gets the Throne over Peter's wishes and Peter suffers another coup, his recent diplomatic blunder forcing nobles who weren't a part of the last coup to try and replace him.
 
The problem then becomes one of international response. If Peter puts forward a hohenzollern candidate for the throne of Poland-Lithuania, then Austria and France are going to back a different candidate, probably a Wettin. Austria and France together can swing any vote in the Sejm against Russia and the Prussians did not cultivate a faction in the Sejm at this time, as they had limited enough resources that they could not afford to bribe too many Sejmjiks.

Odds are the Franco-Austrian Candidate gets the Throne over Peter's wishes and Peter suffers another coup, his recent diplomatic blunder forcing nobles who weren't a part of the last coup to try and replace him.

I'm not convinced the French and Austrians can out influence the Russians in Poland. Ultimately what prevails here is the threat of force, and Russia can easily beat Austria, while France can't project power that far over such a big territory.
 
I'm not convinced the French and Austrians can out influence the Russians in Poland. Ultimately what prevails here is the threat of force, and Russia can easily beat Austria, while France can't project power that far over such a big territory.

France can project enough power that far if Austria's on their side. Also Russia wasn't the one who had troops in the Sejm to elect the past 2 Kings, that was Austria.

And I think you're vastly overestimating the Russian Army of this period. Russia would not be able to beat Austria so easily, it took them 6 years to beat the Ottomans in the Same time Period and Austria had a better army than the Ottomans at this time. Also, if Austria and France are backing a Wettin, which is likely, they'll have Maurice de Saxe as their Field Commander. Maurice was a bonafide military genius. Russia doesn't have a commander to match him.
 
France can project enough power that far if Austria's on their side. Also Russia wasn't the one who had troops in the Sejm to elect the past 2 Kings, that was Austria.

And I think you're vastly overestimating the Russian Army of this period. Russia would not be able to beat Austria so easily, it took them 6 years to beat the Ottomans in the Same time Period and Austria had a better army than the Ottomans at this time. Also, if Austria and France are backing a Wettin, which is likely, they'll have Maurice de Saxe as their Field Commander. Maurice was a bonafide military genius. Russia doesn't have a commander to match him.

It takes Russia a heck of a long time to mobilise because of their poor infrastructure and logistics. But they have near limitless supply of manpower to wear down either Austria or the Ottomans. In addition, France was financially exhausted after the Seven Years War. I suspect Austria was too.
 
France can project enough power that far if Austria's on their side. Also Russia wasn't the one who had troops in the Sejm to elect the past 2 Kings, that was Austria.

And I think you're vastly overestimating the Russian Army of this period. Russia would not be able to beat Austria so easily, it took them 6 years to beat the Ottomans in the Same time Period and Austria had a better army than the Ottomans at this time. Also, if Austria and France are backing a Wettin, which is likely, they'll have Maurice de Saxe as their Field Commander. Maurice was a bonafide military genius. Russia doesn't have a commander to match him.

Um...by the time the Polish throne is in question, Maurice de Saxe is dead.

That said, I've always kind of liked the idea of somehow, that when Friedrich Christian dies, his brother, Prince Xavier, succeeds as king of Poland. They were iffy about electing Friedrich Augustus III due to it would require a regency, but Xavier would have no such problem. If Austria and France can be persuaded to support him, chances are Russia will either pick some other native candidate (Czartoryski, Branicki, Lubomirski), or reach an agreement with Xavier to support his election (while maintaining a British-Prussian alliance in all other aspects).
 
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