Who would a fascist France attack?

Irioth

Banned
Something like that. Or perhaps a revolt against a "pro-collaborationist" French government leads the Germans, with their usual ham-handedness, to intervene to "restore order."

Indeed. But that might as well make them fatigued of dealing with France, or make them ever more vary of letting France escape their grip.

I dunno - there would be resistence to actual assimilation. The German protestant majority, including the old Prussian elite, aren't going to be happy with the idea of adding all those Catholic voters,

Bah. I've always been very very skeptical about the real force of these religious-based arguments in the largely secularized German ruling elites of the 1800s, much less the 1900s. There were very strong voices in 1848 and in 1866 for the Grossdeutchsland approach, and they weren't heeded since Prussia was not so strong then. Here Germany is the master of Europe, France and Russia are vanquished enemies, they would jump at the opportunity of completing national unification with very economically-strong areas.

and nobody is going to be enthusiastic about adding more politically active Slavs to the country.

German police never had much trouble keeping French Alsatians and Posen Polish into line. Bohemia and Moravia are too rich to pass out the opportunity, it's nothing that proper Germanization policies can't solve in a few generations, especially since no enemy is left standing to help these troublesome subjects break ranks.

And also, they've got to consider that Austria is dependent on them: a more compact Hungarian regime is less so, is _not_ German, and is probably less reliable as an ally. (Would the Hungarians really _want_ Serbia?)

True on Serbia. Then let's say Serbia gets its "nice" puppet dictatorship, with the looming threat of a combined Italo-German-Hungarian "police action" as soon as they even dream of pulling a 1903 and couping an irredentist Panslav government into power, now that the Czar is not here to shield them.

As for Hungary, they would be economically tied hand and feet to German capital, strong cultural links, grateful for having been granted the Kingdom of St. Stephen and continued assistance for keeping Romanian and Croat subjects into line. Really, by partitioning A-H, Germany has the opportunity to turn a fragile empire client into a one that has much less grief with minorities,a and win Italy forever to its side.

Hard to say. Perhaps they work to stablize their gains first, and then there's a bigger war with the Soviets in the late 20's? (Might give the French some breathing space).

As I see it, not in the late 20s, really. If the Germans don't involve themselves in the Russian Civil War, and the Reds win, there is a very slight chance of a Trotzkite "let's export revolution by force" gambit (much like the OTL Soviet-Polish war), but it's very flimsly, I don't see the Bolsheviks taking such a risk on Superpower Germany, unless they really delude themselves with their "world revolution" hype, an USSR still fresh from the Civil War and with the Brest-Litovsk losses would have its butt on a plate on the Red Square in six months.


It's much more likely in the 30s, a reamatch in parallel or cooperation with Fascist France (a reverse Molotov-Ribbentrop), when they have had time to rebuild the country and the Red Army.
 
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Irioth

Banned
We still have Russia close by...

In any case, no country can afford the disarmament the current administration is pulling off. The current estimate is that it would take in excess of twenty years to rebuild the military from what we have now, assuming we start right away, and I somehow doubt we'll get that much advance warning if/when the war comes...

Sadly, it seems the USA and we the rest of Europe will have to cover your lazy pacifist butt in the coming World War IV with the Jihadist NeoCaliphate, or if Czar Putin gets really unreasonable about Ukraine in NATO and EU (it's gonna happen). :rolleyes: To be honest, not that my own country has that much shining of a record, too, as it concerns military preparedness. :(:mad:
 
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Irioth

Banned
Of course, there is always the wild-card possibility that it's the French who develop the first atomic bomb, say around 1950 or thereabouts.... :)

Bruce

Here we wander in ASB territory ;). I can see a decently plausible case for either Germany, UK, or Russia (shudder !!!!) getting the bomb first, but France ??? It took them two decades, once the secret was out.
 
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Here we wander in ASB territory ;). I can see a decently plausible case for either Germany, UK, or Russia (shudder !!!!) getting the bomb first, but France ??? It took them two decades, once the secret was out.

more like 15, unless you think there was an active French nuclear program during WWII. And the French really didn't try that hard: there was no official nuclear bomb project until 1954, although there had been several nuclear reactor programs over the previous nine years. Before the war, France was OTL one of the research leaders.

(Not that Germany doesn't have serious advantages. It's just that it's possible that a victorious Germany doesn't see the need for expensive blue-sky projects, while the French leadership will look favorably on any ideas that promise to shift the balance of power...in any event, I agree it's a fairly low-probability outcome. I just don't think it's actually ASB.)

Bruce
 

Irioth

Banned
(Not that Germany doesn't have serious advantages. It's just that it's possible that a victorious Germany doesn't see the need for expensive blue-sky projects, while the French leadership will look favorably on any ideas that promise to shift the balance of power...in any event, I agree it's a fairly low-probability outcome. I just don't think it's actually ASB.)

Bruce

OK, not ASB, but in the really really low range of likelihood.
 
Bah. I've always been very very skeptical about the real force of these religious-based arguments in the largely secularized German ruling elites of the 1800s, much less the 1900s. There were very strong voices in 1848 and in 1866 for the Grossdeutchsland approach, and they weren't heeded since Prussia was not so strong then. Here Germany is the master of Europe, France and Russia are vanquished enemies, they would jump at the opportunity of completing national unification with very economically-strong areas.


Perhaps, although if we assume a democratizing Germany post-war I have trouble seeing it launching a "hostile takeover" of it's ally. Of course, there is the question of what the Austrian Germans want - they might well find joining victorious Greater Germany a nicer prospect than maintining a tiresome partnership with the Hungarians to keep the other minorities in line.


German police never had much trouble keeping French Alsatians and Posen Polish into line.


Posen Poles didn't form an entire nation of their own, and the alternative being Russian rule...

Bohemia and Moravia are too rich to pass out the opportunity, it's nothing that proper Germanization policies can't solve in a few generations,


Hadn't worked in the last 11 generations, and indeed Czech national identity made big strides forward in the 19th century under Austrian role. Of course, what matters here are German perceptions rather than actualities...


True on Serbia. Then let's say Serbia gets its "nice" puppet dictatorship, with the looming threat of a combined Italo-German-Hungarian "police action" as soon as they even dream of pulling a 1903 and couping an irredentist Panslav government into power, now that the Czar is not here to shield them.


Plausible.

As for Hungary, they would be economically tied hand and feet to German capital, strong cultural links, grateful for having been granted the Kingdom of St. Stephen


Why should they be grateful for something they consider their natural right and which they had largely run anway since the 1860's?

and continued assistance for keeping Romanian and Croat subjects into line.


Judging from OTL, the Romanians won't be too much of a problem. The Croatians, OTOH, will likely be...grumpy.


As I see it, not in the late 20s, really. If the Germans don't involve themselves in the Russian Civil War, and the Reds win, there is a very slight chance of a Trotzkite "let's export revolution by force" gambit (much like the OTL Soviet-Polish war), but it's very flimsly, I don't see the Bolsheviks taking such a risk on Superpower Germany, unless they really delude themselves with their "world revolution" hype, an USSR still fresh from the Civil War and with the Brest-Litovsk losses would have its butt on a plate on the Red Square in six months.


I was assuming that the Germans would be the ones to start a war on some excuse or another.

It's much more likely in the 30s, a reamatch in parallel or cooperation with Fascist France (a reverse Molotov-Ribbentrop), when they have had time to rebuild the country and the Red Army.


And if the Germans don't win the Italians to their side, we have the prospect of a "perfect storm" here, in which the Germans have to fight _simultaneously_ the French, the Italians, the Soviets, and the British...of course, this last depends on the French fascists not being too repulsive to the Brits.

Bruce
 

Irioth

Banned
Perhaps, although if we assume a democratizing Germany post-war I have trouble seeing it launching a "hostile takeover" of it's ally. Of course, there is the question of what the Austrian Germans want - they might well find joining victorious Greater Germany a nicer prospect than maintining a tiresome partnership with the Hungarians to keep the other minorities in line.

Indeed. And claiming their rightful place within a Superpower. It looks nicer than a tiresome job as the principal of a bunch squabbling minorities.

Posen Poles didn't form an entire nation of their own, and the alternative being Russian rule...

Czechs don't look much bigger within Greater Germany and neither France nor Russia are in the condition to lift a finger about their fate. The UK and USA will be utterly un-interested. Remember Chamberlain's quote about the plight of the Czech "a quarrel in a far away country between people of whom we know nothing".

Hadn't worked in the last 11 generations

Under the decaying late HRE which couldn't organize its way out of a paper bag.

and indeed Czech national identity made big strides forward in the 19th century under Austrian role. Of course, what matters here are German perceptions rather than actualities...

Indeed, they would look at it like finishing the glorious assimilation job that their forebears were unable to, due to the sorry state of the late old Empire.

Why should they be grateful for something they consider their natural right and which they had largely run anway since the 1860's?

Because they now would be the only ones to run the show, no more condominium with the Austrians. Germany would only ask them faithful alliance in international matters. And their strategical interests would coincide, keeping overlordship over the Balkans and preventing a return of the Russians. It would got to be like the USA-UK "strategical partnership".


I was assuming that the Germans would be the ones to start a war on some excuse or another.

Maybe, but what's the war aim, unless it's crushing a foolish too-early Russian rematch attempt. At Brest-Litovsk, Germany got pretty much anything they wanted from Russia, economically and strategically. Unless they pull an Hitler, and start dreaming of expanding Germany's ethnic borders to the Urals and turning European Russia in the German Far West...


And if the Germans don't win the Italians to their side, we have the prospect of a "perfect storm" here, in which the Germans have to fight _simultaneously_ the French, the Italians, the Soviets, and the British...of course, this last depends on the French fascists not being too repulsive to the Brits.

It's the "perfect storm", sure, but Germany here has the chance of winning either or both the British and Italians to their side. First of all, there's always the chance that in such a TL, UK stayed neutral or sided with the CPs, and anyway they are the least interested in picking another foolish fight with the Germans for the sake of French revanchism. It would require Germany doing something really dumb like making moves on Suez or India (not entirely out of the question, if William the Dumb is at the helm). Otherwise, it's likely some concessions may win them to neutrality. Likewise for Italy, even in the worst scenario (Italian minorities still in A-U), last-minute forcing A-U to cede them would still win Italy to Germany's side. Otherwise, I don't see anything France could offer Italy to win them to their side, short of Germany deeply offending Italy with some abuse, like totally blocking Italian colonial aspirations. IOW, your "perfect storm" scenario isn't entirely out of question, but it's something that Germany would have to bring on its head with blunder after blunder. Otherwise, it can be safely contained to a Germany/Italy vs. France/Russia rematch.
 
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