Who runs in 96 if Bush Sr. Wins in 92.

I wouldn't be so sure about that. They might like having a puppet who will take orders.

I'm not sure if they'd appreciate a puppet they cannot move without setting its strings on fire. I think they'd give the Dole nod, regardless of how boring he is (a pity that Spitting Image had run out of steam by then, a Dole-Major sketch would have been funny)
 
Which does not imply you can speak the language fluently. I could give a prepared speech in Spanish. Don't mean I can speak it fluently. Here's wiki's take on it:

Wiki...:rolleyes:

Molly Ivins was one of W's foremost media opponents when he was governor of TX... one might as well ask Dennis Kucinich or Michael Moore what they thought of W's conversational Spanish
 
GOP establishment won't let Quayle anywhere the nomination.

Precisely. Quayle would be perceived/portrayed (more rightly than not) as another Harding but without corrupt friends. To address the right wing and to get someone electable, I could see Jack Kemp getting the nod. Combine cabinet-level experience, experience in Congress and the sort-of-star factor from his days in the NFL and I think you might well have a winner.
 
Kemp is 66 though. You have a septuagenerian in poor health in the WH, plus a Dem nominee in their late 40s or early 50s. Kemp was vigorous for his age, but the contrast is still there. If Kasten beats Feingold in '92, I could see him as a strong conservative contender along with Gramm and Campbell, with Dole and Alexander for the moderates.

Agreed on Bayh and Kerrey as strong candidates. Maybe a Gore-Kerrey or Kerrey-Gore ticket?
 
Wiki...:rolleyes:

Molly Ivins was one of W's foremost media opponents when he was governor of TX... one might as well ask Dennis Kucinich or Michael Moore what they thought of W's conversational Spanish

Well it does point out explicitly that she was a political opponent, and it has two other non-partisan sources on the issue, but hey, let's ignore those. Dare we suggest that you yourself are not being entirely non-partisan here?
 
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For the Republicans, it depends on how successful Bush's second term was. If it went well, they would be likely to nominate someone with ties to the administration (Kemp, Elizabeth Dole, Cheney), a military figure from the Gulf war (Powell and Schwartzkopf are the most obvious) or even George W.

Otherwise a governor, who could run as an outsider.

Not Quayle under any scenario; the public thought he wasn't up to the job and it would be electoral suicide.

For the Democrats, Clinton and Gore are the obvious candidates. The former only if he lost narrowly in 1992.
 
For the Republicans, it depends on how successful Bush's second term was. If it went well, they would be likely to nominate someone with ties to the administration (Kemp, Elizabeth Dole, Cheney), a military figure from the Gulf war (Powell and Schwartzkopf are the most obvious) or even George W.

Otherwise a governor, who could run as an outsider.

Not Quayle under any scenario; the public thought he wasn't up to the job and it would be electoral suicide.

For the Democrats, Clinton and Gore are the obvious candidates. The former only if he lost narrowly in 1992.

How often has an incumbent VP who wants the candidacy not get it?
 
It depends on why Clinton lost the election. If a sex scandal blew up out of control, then he'd obviously be precluded from running again and it might constrain who ran in '96.
 
his father's legacy might have gotten him through the Yale admittance process; but it didn't compel his graduation nor advanced degree which he received later from Harvard... he scored high enough on his natural guard aptitude tests to be sent to flight school from which he graduated, and was entrusted with multi million dollar aircraft; the air force is picky about pilots and doesn't usually choose blithering idiots for the purpose; and learning a second language is a mark of intelligence; there are plenty of people who lack the capacity to do so
He's not an idiot, but he's not intelligent. Hasn't Bush boasted about cheating during his academic career?

Learning a second language is not a mark of intelligence. Not being able to learn a language is a sign of unintelligence, but it's rare. Several students I've worked with speak two or three languages despite Down's Syndrome.
And I personally doubt that W. is fluent in Spanish, so it's a moot point.

How often has an incumbent VP who wants the candidacy not get it?
Not often in the post-Barkely era, but this would be an exception.
 
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