Who is bad guy here?

[aktarian]

August 1998

Mazar e-Sharif falls to Taliban. In chaos that follows several thousand civilians are killed. Among the dead are 15 Iranian diplomats. Iran strongly protest this action and demands Taliban hand over those responsible to be tried in Iran. Taliban ignore demand.


September.

Iran begins concentrating armed forces along the border with Afghanistan. This includes both regular and IRGC troops, IRI army aviation and IRIAF. Also border guards units are strenghtened. Several different special forces units also deploy, though deployment of these isn’t publicised.


October.

Reacting to Iranian movements Taliban begin their own deployment, concentrating forces on their side of the border.

Ocasional skirmish along the border though in most cases it’s not clear if Iranians are fighting Taliban or drug smugglers. Iranian border guards are given orders for “aggressive patrols†which often results in them following escaping smugglers several kilometers in Afghanistan. Iranian special forces begin operating in Afghanistan in reconaissance role.


November.

Tensions rise. UN offers to mediate. Iran agrees in principle though their demands are clear. Taliban are to hand over people responsible for killings of diplomats. Taliban maintain that this was act of lone soldier acting on his own. Not suprisingly UN mission results in failure.

Iranians quietly aproach Russia and Northern Alliance leader Massoud for possible coordinated actions. Massoud agrees, Russians are ambivalent. In principle they agree to help Iranians in potential war but only in limited scale, mostly with intelligence.

Skirmishes intensify both in frequency and intensity. IRIAF and IRIAA are often called in to take out Taliban artillery positions.

Iranians have some 300.000 troops along the border. Most are IRGC, though IRIA is present as well.

Iran begins sending weapons to Hazari militia.


December.

Iran issues ultimatum to Taliban. Either they hand over 10 people Iran helds responsible for killings or there will be war. The deadline is set for 28. December.

As the deadline passes and Taliban didn’t hand over people Iranians want on 29. December Iranian armed forces launch operation “Spiderâ€. It begins with IRIAF strike against Taliban AD positions and airfields. They are followed by massive strike against Taliban troop concentrations and artillery positions. Combined with airstrikes Iranians make several helicopter landings. There are also two airborne landings, one at Herat airport, other at Mazar e-Sharif airport. By evening several cruicial passes are in Iranian hands and both Herat and Mazer e-Sharif airports are in Iranian hands. During early hours of 30. December two columns begin advancing into Afghanistan. One going through Herat toward Mazar, other aimed at Kandahar and Kabul. Learning lessons from Soviet operations columns are spearheaded by helicopter landed light infantry occupying ridges and dominating terrain and have strong armed helicopter and air support. Both meet Taliban resistance but are steadily advancing. Pakistan and Saudi Arabia condemn Iranian invasion and recall their ambassadors from Teheran. Pakistan also informs both Iran and US that it will no longer represent Iranian interests in US.


Thoughts?

 

[Peter]

Good work! Please update.

 

[MerryPrankster]

Well, if you want to know who's the worst of the lot, I'd say the Taliban. On a per-person basis, they're much more repressive, even though Iran is more powerful.

How will the Iranian people react to a new war? I posted a "WI" (not a full-blown scenario) on the same subject a few months ago and before it fizzled, someone said that the Iranian people remember the horrors of the Iran-Iraq War and the mullahs might not be too aggressive as a result.

 

[MerryPrankster]

Massoud was a genius @ guerrilla warfare, though his political skills weren't very good (that's one reason why the NA got driven up into the mountains really fast...he wasn't a good coalition builder). I wonder what he can do to the Taliban with Iranian support.

I don't think the Iranians are going to go for territorial gains in this one...Iran has some ethnic problems (only 51% of the populace is "Persian" and there's a big Azeri minority that might want out) and adding others (even the fellow-Shi'ite Hazaras) might overextend things.

They might try to make sure that the Hazaras dominate a new government, though. Or perhaps partition Afghanistan...each neighboring country takes a bite and Iran has a nice Hazara satellite.

 

[Grimm Reaper]

I remember a moment of crisis in OTL and almost ruptured myself laughing!

Iranian diplomats seized, the embassy stormed, and Iran's regime being condemned for their sickening western secularism and contempt for true Islam by true believers on the rampage. I'm sure that for a moment every person in Iran was struck by the irony.

 

[aktarian]

Well, if you want to know who's the worst of the lot, I'd say the Taliban. On a per-person basis, they're much more repressive, even though Iran is more powerful.

I just wanted something not ordinary for a title because that makes people check out the thread. "Iran-Afghan war" sounded so boring.

How will the Iranian people react to a new war? I posted a "WI" (not a full-blown scenario) on the same subject a few months ago and before it fizzled, someone said that the Iranian people remember the horrors of the Iran-Iraq War and the mullahs might not be too aggressive as a result.

I think that was me. Iranian goals will be very limited. Wait until Khatami makes a speach about the invasion.

Any idea how other countries will react? What will US do? I doubt they would do much to hold Iranians back, most likely they'll be glad Iranians are focused on Afghanistan and will get involved in another war.

I remember a moment of crisis in OTL and almost ruptured myself laughing!

Iranian diplomats seized, the embassy stormed, and Iran's regime being condemned for their sickening western secularism and contempt for true Islam by true believers on the rampage. I'm sure that for a moment every person in Iran was struck by the irony.

I remeber Iranians calling Taliban extremists (or something along those lines). When Iranians call somebody else islamic extremists you know they must be really bad.

 

[BRT]

Iranian fundamentalist rule may be opressive, but the Taliban were in a different league altogether. Sort of like comparing fascist Italy with Nazi Germany.
And we can't ignore Osama Bin Laden and Al Qaeda in discusssing this WI scenario. I can't imagine OBL sitting back and watching his Taliban friends being attacked by a foreign force. Major Al Qaeda terrorist attcks on Teheran could easily result. (unlike in the US, Al Qaeda agents, in their fundamentalist clothes, wouldn't find it hard to sneak into Iran) Sectarian Shia vs Sunni violence in Pakistan might be another outcome of this conflict, being as it is a war between Sunni Taliban and Shia Iran.

 

[Rahul]

Aktarian, I doubt Pakistan would sit by and watch. The Taliban was their creation (or at least its creation and coming to power was aided by them) so it will probably start sending some mujahedin into Afghanistan. If anti-Shi'te extremists can kill Shi'ites and blow up Shi'ite mosques in Karachi, when they see an entire Shi'ite country invading a fellow country ruled by a Sunni-fundamentalist gov't, they will rush to that gov't's aid, especially if Pakistan's ISI is only too happy to provide support. Iran will experience something similar to what India is experiencing in Kashmir should it try to take Herat and other areas where Persian dialects are spoken and where there is a Shi;ite population. Perhaps Massoud will be killed by two "journalists" just as he was in OTL, as that was a rather effective method to get to him IMO. If Pakistan actually moves its own armed forces into Afghanistan, perhaps the country will be partitioned up into a Pakistani and Iranian dominated part. If Pakistan were to officially move into Afghanistan, India, considering that it would be under the Vajpayee gov't and just have completed nuke testing (along with Pakistan), would probably try to move forward in Kashmir or at least be ready to steal some Pakistani territory should the Pakistanis find themselves in trouble. Indeed, they may even seek an alliance of convenience with Iran. I'm confident that this would happen because unlike the usual Congress-led gov'ts, the BJP has shown more enthusiasm for military adventures and standoffs with Pakistan (in 2002), for better or worse. I can see lots of Sunni jihadis from all over the MidEast coming to Afghanistan to fight the "infidel Shi'ites" should it flare up into an actual war with an Iranian push towards Herat, not just skirmishes and bombardment. Interesting scenario.

 

[aktarian]

Aktarian, I doubt Pakistan would sit by and watch. The Taliban was their creation (or at least its creation and coming to power was aided by them) so it will probably start sending some mujahedin into Afghanistan. If anti-Shi'te extremists can kill Shi'ites and blow up Shi'ite mosques in Karachi, when they see an entire Shi'ite country invading a fellow country ruled by a Sunni-fundamentalist gov't, they will rush to that gov't's aid, especially if Pakistan's ISI is only too happy to provide support. Iran will experience something similar to what India is experiencing in Kashmir should it try to take Herat and other areas where Persian dialects are spoken and where there is a Shi;ite population.

Pakistan's role is pretty much chartered. I'm asking what people think would be US role.

Perhaps Massoud will be killed by two "journalists" just as he was in OTL, as that was a rather effective method to get to him IMO.

No.

If Pakistan actually moves its own armed forces into Afghanistan, perhaps the country will be partitioned up into a Pakistani and Iranian dominated part.

Iranian goals will be very limited with clear exit strategy.

If Pakistan were to officially move into Afghanistan, India, considering that it would be under the Vajpayee gov't and just have completed nuke testing (along with Pakistan), would probably try to move forward in Kashmir or at least be ready to steal some Pakistani territory should the Pakistanis find themselves in trouble. Indeed, they may even seek an alliance of convenience with Iran. I'm confident that this would happen because unlike the usual Congress-led gov'ts, the BJP has shown more enthusiasm for military adventures and standoffs with Pakistan (in 2002), for better or worse. I can see lots of Sunni jihadis from all over the MidEast coming to Afghanistan to fight the "infidel Shi'ites" should it flare up into an actual war with an Iranian push towards Herat, not just skirmishes and bombardment. Interesting scenario.

It woun't go that far though Pakistan will get involved to a large degree.

BTW (though I asked this before), are you Rahul from HB?

 

[Rahul]

Yeah, I am Rahul from HB. You mentioned this site on HB once and I joined it after taking a look at it.

If Iran's goals are very limited with a clear exit strategy, then my ideas don't really occur as Pakistan has no reason to do anything although some anti-Shi'ite elements in Pakistan may very well decide on their own to go and fight the Iranians on the Taliban's behalf.

For the US role, I am not really sure. For one, we have Clinton as president, not George W. Bush. I can't see Clinton wanting to do anything about this with Kosovo already on his plate. Perhaps he might offer to mediate, although I doubt that would get far because from what you've said, it seems Iran has set in its mind what it wants: those who killed its diplomats to be handed over for trial. In this, I say they would have a legitimate concern (we are talking that these diplomats were killed in the chaos inside the city after its fall to the Taliban, not by a stray artillery shell, right?) and have the moral high ground, not the Taliban. However, you say they have a clear exit strategy. Do they know who exactly killed their diplomats? If they do, are they simply going to drop airborne forces into Mazar e-Sharif, grab those men, and bring them back to Iran for trial (or better yet, have their special forces kidnap them) or are they going to invade, fight their way towards and occupy Mazar e Sharif, and then withdraw after "punishing" the Taliban? I'm just curious what Iran's plan is because I bet that if Iran did actually march into Afghanistan, Clinton would ask that they withdraw and might even lob a few cruise missiles at them. I don't think the US would actually bring serious military forces to bear as they are tied up in Kosovo and Clinton is tied up at home with the Lewinsky scandal. Sorry if I strayed too far off course with the India-Pakistan thing. Lastly, you mentioned Pakistan's role is pretty much chartered. Just what will they be doing?

 

[aktarian]

Yeah, I am Rahul from HB. You mentioned this site on HB once and I joined it after taking a look at it.

Thought so.

For the US role, I am not really sure. For one, we have Clinton as president, not George W. Bush. I can't see Clinton wanting to do anything about this with Kosovo already on his plate. Perhaps he might offer to mediate, although I doubt that would get far because from what you've said, it seems Iran has set in its mind what it wants: those who killed its diplomats to be handed over for trial.

OK, so US stays out isn't perticulary sad Iran is figting somebody else.

In this, I say they would have a legitimate concern (we are talking that these diplomats were killed in the chaos inside the city after its fall to the Taliban, not by a stray artillery shell, right?) and have the moral high ground, not the Taliban.

They were, surprise surprise, beheaded.

However, you say they have a clear exit strategy. Do they know who exactly killed their diplomats?

The lsit includes local commanders and people in military hierarchy (such as it was).

If they do, are they simply going to drop airborne forces into Mazar e-Sharif, grab those men, and bring them back to Iran for trial (or better yet, have their special forces kidnap them) or are they going to invade, fight their way towards and occupy Mazar e Sharif, and then withdraw after "punishing" the Taliban?

Iranain goals will be similar to Israeli for "Peace for Galilee". Go in, kick some butt, establish friendly regime then pull out.

I'm just curious what Iran's plan is because I bet that if Iran did actually march into Afghanistan, Clinton would ask that they withdraw and might even lob a few cruise missiles at them.

There will be calls to pull out though legitimate afghan gov't will support invasion (legitimate gov't was NA).

I don't think the US would actually bring serious military forces to bear as they are tied up in Kosovo and Clinton is tied up at home with the Lewinsky scandal.

Not to mention Iraq next door.

Sorry if I strayed too far off course with the India-Pakistan thing. Lastly, you mentioned Pakistan's role is pretty much chartered. Just what will they be doing?

Pakistani officers with Taliban (this hapened in OTL), clashes between PAF and IRIAF, pakistani volunteers with Taliban.

 

[aktarian]

31. December

Air bridge between Mashad AB and Iranian held airports is established. This brings some heavy artilery, light AFVs and attack helicopters to strenghten Iranian forces. Iranian forces begin probes toward Mazar and Herat, mostly to determine Taliban strenght and draw forces from oposing Iranian armored columns. Unconfirmed reports of anti-Taliban rising in Mazar.

Northern Alliance anounces it welcomes Iranian friends in struggle to liberate Afghanistan. They also begin offensive against Taliban. Thrust is aimed between Mazar and Kabul so their goal isn’t clear. NA uses several ex-Iraqi planes given to them by Iran.

Iranian special forces, acting on intelligence from Russia and NA begins raiding Al Qaida training camps. Several were evacuated and trainees dispersed or sent to fight against Iranians though Iranians capture numerous members, including several high ranking members. Leadership has escaped though.

By evening Iranian northern column is within sight of Herat. Advance elements link with airborne troops. Artilery duels between Taliban and Iranians.

First responses from western governments. Iranians learned well from Soviet invasion and timed invasion during holidays which delays reactions for several days. Most calls are for both sides to find peaceful solution. Nothing coordinated yet.

IRIAF claims it encountered unidentified planes over Afghansitan. No action was taken though Iran warns neighbouring countries not to interfere and that any aircraft will be fired upon.

Iran starts using several domestic produced weapons, including balistic missiles, with varying results.


1. January 1999

Iranian president adresses the nation about the war. He states that Iran didn’t want this war and wanted to resolve matters peacefuly but Taliban weren’t interested. He also declare what are Iranian goals: bringing to justice those responsible for killing of diplomats and protection of shia coreligionists. He also stresses that Iran has no territorial claims toward Afghanistan and promises to withdraw Iranian armed forces after goals were reached. Neighbouring countries are once again warned to stay away and not intrfere. Undeclared goals are overthrow of Taliban an reduction of drug production.

Iranians anounce they have captured “large†numbers of foreign fighters, both in Tlaiban and Al Qaida ranks. They say they are willing to return them to any country with which they have diplomatic relations (which means means captured Pakistanis and Saudis woun’t be turned over) and are willing to extradite any wanted people to countries with which they have apropriate agreements (which exclude US). Iranians also claim several Pakistani regular army officers were captured as well, something Pakistan denies.

Reports about rising in Mazar are proven wrong. Fighting was result of Irnaian attempt to capture regioanl Taliban commander. The mission failed and company-sized airborne unit fought their way in the city to rescue trapped comrades.

IRIAF claims it has fought with PAF fighters and shot down “several†planes, something Pakistan denies. IRIAF strike flights are escorted by interceptors.

Saudi Arabia calls for emergency UNSC session to discuss situation.

 

[MerryPrankster]

This is very interesting. Please continue.

Why wouldn't there be anti-Taliban risings? The NA is advancing and the Iranians are mauling the Taliban in the West. I'd expect at least a little unrest, and perhaps some ghoulish Taliban reprisals.

 

[Rahul]

I agree, keep it coming Aktarian. It is very interesting. Is Mohammad Khatami the Iranian president in this TL? IIRC, he was president in 1998. What is his role in this, or his he just a figurehead while the Revolutionary Guards and Ayatollahs handle this clash with the Taliban?

 

[aktarian]

I agree, keep it coming Aktarian. It is very interesting. Is Mohammad Khatami the Iranian president in this TL?

Yes. AFAIK he still is.

IIRC, he was president in 1998. What is his role in this, or his he just a figurehead while the Revolutionary Guards and Ayatollahs handle this clash with the Taliban?

No, he is activelly participating. Though most of ground troops are IRGC (in OTL most of units deployed were IRGC) regular army is participating as well, specially special forces, heavy weapons and IRIAF provides heavy punch to IRGC air element.

Any additional ideas how others would react to this? I think most Gulf states will be happy that Iranian attention is fixed somewhere else, Saudis and Pakistanis will oppose it. It hink most of the western countries woun't really care one way or the other. What about US? Any additional thoughts?

 

[aktarian]

2. January

Herat explodes in violence as Iranians push toward in from three sides. With Iranians figting their way into the city shi’ia militia, aided by Iranian special forces and advisors, launches uprising. Confusion reigns supreme in the city and hundreds of civilians die in crossfire. There are also atrocities commited by all sides. Hazaris kill any Taliban they can capture, Taliban in turn kill any Hazari and don’t distinguish between armed and unarmed people. After finding several of their comrades executed Iranins don’t bother with taking Taliban prisoners either. By evening Taliban seem to be loosing control of Herat thugh they still control large parts of it.

Iranian southern column is closing on Lashkar Gah, only major city before Kandahar. Taliban are alternatively offering fierce resistance and surendering en masse, depending on which forces Iranian encounter. Pashtun foces genrally offer better resistance while other ethnic groups less so. Al Qaida members fight fiercly but lack basic military training and are easily destroyed.

It’s becoming clear NA thrust is aimed toward Kabul, though secondary thrust is pushing in direction of Maazar as well.

Taliban announce they shot down several Iranian aircraft. Pakistani TV later shows footage of what looks like wreckage of AH-1 helicopter with IRIAA markings. Fate of the crew is not yet known.

UNSC agrees to emergency session to debate situation in Afghanistan.

Large demonstrations in front of Iranian embassies and consulates in several Gulf countries and Pakistan. RSAF planes over Gulf come close to Iranian border prompting IRIAF to scramble their own planes. Similary PAF flights increase along Iranain border. IRIN increases patrols along southern Gulf.

3. January

In most serious incident so far IRIAF plans supporting southern thrust were attacked by PAF planes. After Pakistani planes were detected attack planes were withdrwn and interceptors engaged Pakistanis. 1 IRIAF plane was damaged and crew had to eject (though they did it over Iranian forces). In return 3 PAF planes were shot down. IRIAF pilots were able to take advantage of PAF alck of BVR missiles, though in terrain over Afghanistan this wasn’t such a big advantage. One of the PAF aircraft shot down was F-16, marking first time F-16 was lost in air-to-air combat. In unprecedented move Iranian TV shows gun camera footage of F-16 being hit by AAM.

Taliban are loosing control of Heart. Detecting opening in Iranian lines they menage to withdraw large force. After Iranians realise Taliban are withdrawing they launch massive air attack on retreating Taliban forces, inflicting heavy losses. After city is in Iranian hands Hazari militia hunt down any remaining Taliban, quickly hanging any they find. Toward the evening Iranian Army units restore some semblance of order, though killings continue on smaller scale. It will take some time to count casualties but first impressions are that battle was brief but bloody. Iranian casualties are estimated at 100-150 dead and about 3 times that number wounded. Taliban are estimated to have lost some 500 dead in the city plus some 350 dead in retreat. Not many prisoners were taken and some 200 are believed to killed during uprising and after city fell. Civilians casualties are likely to be higher that 1.000. Most of the city lies in ruins and Red Crescent calls for humanitarian aid to help those made homeless. Iranian begin flying tents and blankets to Herat airport. Iranian forces begin regrouping for further advance.

Kabul comes under heavy attack by NA planes. Long range artilery begins shelling Taliban positions in front of Kabul.

Russia delays UNSC session which is called for 7. January. They unoficially inform other UNSC members that they will veto any resolution condemning Iran.

Demonstrations in front of Iranian consulate in Karachi turn bloody after crowd tries to storm it. Iranian guards fire warning shots in the air which only further enrages Pakistanis. After several people climb over fence Iranians fire on the crowd, killing 9 people and wounding large numbers of demonstrators. This sparks brief firefight with Pakistani police which fire at guards, though nobody is hurt. Demonstrators disperse after that. Both Irnaians and Pakistanis are outraged and language becomes very undiplomatic. Pakistanis accuse Iranians of firing at “pecefull†demonstrators, Iranians accuse Pakistani police of attacking Iranian guards. Tensions mount and Pakistan orders deployment of several army units along Iranin border. Iranins will soon match this.

Pictures of damaged Iranian Su-24 at Mashad AB emerge. It’s clear it’s damage caused by missile though date of incident isn’t clear.

Taliban show footage of captured Iranian AH-1 crew. They threaten to publicly execute them. In response commander of Iranian forces in Afghanistan declares that “For every Iranian that is martyred 50 Taliban prisoners will be executed.†It’s becoming clear that war is turning to be really ugly. Several western countries call for Iranian withdrawal, calls which are ignored. Red cross and Red crescent representatives call on both sides to treat prisoners in accordance with laws of war.

 

[Rahul]

Very interesting Aktarian. To prevent further Pakistani "volunteers" entering Afghanistan, do you think Iran might decide to land airborne troops in the Khyber Pass, along the Quetta-Kandahar road, and the Gardeyz-Miram Shah road (within Afghanistan's borders)?

http://www.afghan-network.net/maps/major_roads.gif

 

[aktarian]

Very interesting Aktarian. To prevent further Pakistani "volunteers" entering Afghanistan, do you think Iran might decide to land airborne troops in the Khyber Pass, along the Quetta-Kandahar road, and the Gardeyz-Miram Shah road (within Afghanistan's borders)?

No. Several reasons:
-Could be too far for gorund troops to reach
-airborne troops are a bit stretched with two major airheads (though Herat one was relieved)
-supply could be a problem with cargo planes and helicopters tasked with supplying airheads and landing troops ahead of armored columns.

Though they'll start bombing them.

http://www.afghan-network.net/maps/major_roads.gif

I have similar map, though a bit better.

 

[MerryPrankster]

Good job, Aktarian.

Will Pakistan go to war to preserve the Taliban government? We've had some nasty incidents thus far.

 

[aktarian]

Good job, Aktarian.

Will Pakistan go to war to preserve the Taliban government? We've had some nasty incidents thus far.

Not directly though incidents like this and flow of suplies and "volunteers" will continue.