Although not as emphatically as Mr. Usetron, I would like to make a few points.
1. Without GW there may not have been a U.S. or an office of President. The presence and stature of GW were absolutley necessary for a successful Convention, a strong, independently elected Chief Executive and the ratification of the Constitution.
2. So to have a first "President" other than GW you need a POD after ratification but before the first election.
3. This is not impossible. The late 18th century was a dangerous place. GW could fall from his horse, die of an infection or simply have a stroke before the Electors meet. The nation goes into deep mourning but the show must go on.
4. I do not see BF gaining very many votes. As pointed out above, he was old and he was sick. His role at the Convention was mostly limited to being carried there in a sedan chair, making a few comments and then blessing the end product. Please also keep in mind that BF was not universally loved and admired. A significant number (probably a minority, but still not insignificant) of his fellow Founding Brothers thought him lazy, immoral and both personally and financially corrupt. His disputes with Congress while he was in France were well known and Adams had developed a deep and abiding hatred of him from the time they had both been in Europe. Franklin did not hate Adams, he just thought he was crazy.
5. So if GW dies before the election I think the Electors (or the House if there is no winner in the Electoral College) choose. . . John Adams. Yes, he was not popular, but he was generally respected. He had been the work horse of the Continental Congress, the man who got the Dutch loan, a key player in the negotiations which ended the ARW and the first U.S. Minister to GB. In betweeen jobs in Europe he had written the Mass. Constitution and written a well received book defending American state constitutions.
6. Also as pointed out above, if the first President is from the North, the first VP will probably be from the South. It could be any one of a number of Pinckneys (I can never keep them straight) or Patrick Henry of Virginia but Henry had just spent a year leading the anti-Federalists so I do not see him being chosen to head to NY to help start up the new government so my predicition is. . . Thomas Jefferson of Virginia. Well liked by his fellow Continental Congressman, doing a fine job over in France, the Electors will ignore his disastrous term as Governor of Virginia.
7. My predictions for the Adams cabinet:
a. Secretary of State: John Jay of New York. Jay was finishing up his work as Secretary of Foreign Affairws for the Confederation, he and Adams had worked well together in Europe so he is the natural choice.
b. Secretary of the Treasury. There are only two real candidates: Robert Morris and Alexander Hamilton. In OTL Morris turned it down and recommended Hamilton so I see this happening in TTL. Admas does not know Hamilton well enough yet to hate him so he follows the Morris recommendation and the good things GW has written about AH.
c. Secretary of War. Admas chooses his fellow Bay Stater Henry Knox unless Knox turns it down and the butterflies have kept Nathaniel Greene alive.
d. Attorney General. Has to be Southerner to maintain some sort of balance so it could be Randolph as in OTL or some other Southern friend of Adams from the Continental Congress.
8. My predictions for the Adams Adminsitration? Not nearly as successful as GW, leading to even earlier divisons along party and geographical lines. Proving once again that GW really was the indispensible man of the Early Republic.
Respectfully submitted,
AH