Who else could colonise the "Philippines"?

There's so much wrong in these two sentences that it just seems...so right.

Serious note though, it'll probably be some combination of random sultanates, the Dutch, or Portuguese.

China's had a tendency of having a massive overseas presence due to migrants while also completely ignoring said migrants. So while there almost certainly will be Chinese Han presence (in OTL, there's quite a few Filipinos with Han ancestry), it probably won't be state sponsored (just going by OTL trends).

Japan's even less likely as their main focus has always ever been the mainland, i.e. the Korean peninsula and China. A victorious Toyotomi Japan that conquers AND maintains long term control of the Korean peninsula (which is unlikely seeing how much trouble they had doing the former despite having the element of surprise and more more-experienced troops) will be dedicating most of its resources projecting into China and Manchuria, then also defending from northern nomads, for at least the better part of a century. By which point some European probably has a stake in the Philippines or the Japanese turn their attention to solidifying control of SE Asia (and going bankrupt in the process since that kinda happened with most of the Chinese dynasties at some point, attacking Vietnam and suffering terrible financial losses) or the north. The Southern islands just don't have the same appeal prestige or financially that projecting towards the mainland does, especially for a nation in the Sinosphere, and controlling China as a foreign invader forces quite a bit attention towards bureaucracy (especially if the capital of Toyotomi Japan is not Beijing like with the Jin, Yuan, Ming, and Qing, forcing a shift in management), rebellions, and raids.

China is probably the next-most likely, and i'm not just saying that because of their proximity: iirc, for a time the Philippines were/could have been controlled by Chinese pirates (i learned about this in a book on travel legends and folklore, been meaning to look closer into it) which were set against the government of the time, so you could probably easily justify a settlement of the Phillipines by Chinese like how Madagascar was/could be settled by Europeans via Libertatia, which in turn could mean that eventually the pirates are defeated by the Chinese government which then takes an interest in the Philippines or at least has nominal control over them and so when the Europeans arrive they find that the Chinese have already set up shop and go for trade instead of colonization

The thing is IOTL before the Spanish came the Philippines is already in process of colonization by Bruneians.
 
Could a split archipelago between the Bruneians, Dutch and Portuguese be possible then ? And so what would be the three names for it in each language?
 
Could a split archipelago between the Bruneians, Dutch and Portuguese be possible then ? And so what would be the three names for it in each language?


Once the Bruneians have completed dominance in Visayas they will vassalize the eastern malay archipelago inc. OTL Ph although in 19th century the new imperialism might change things.
 
The Portuguese might seem the most likely candidates, followed by Brunei and the Dutch.
Seeing the OTL patterns, the Portuguese would not have a chance against the Bruneians since their focus then was indonesia and when they might try the Bruneians might have already solidified their presence there.
 

Zachariah

Banned
What about the Tamils, given the story of the Rajahnate of Cebu IOTL? If Sri Lumay hadn't rebelled against the Chola Dynasty to establish his own independent rajahnate, but had instead carried out the mission he'd been sent to do and established a base in the Philippines for the Maharajah's expeditionary forces, then could the Phillipines have been brought under the control of the Chola Empire, and colonized by the Tamils?
 
What about the Tamils, given the story of the Rajahnate of Cebu IOTL? If Sri Lumay hadn't rebelled against the Chola Dynasty to establish his own independent rajahnate, but had instead carried out the mission he'd been sent to do and established a base in the Philippines for the Maharajah's expeditionary forces, then could the Phillipines have been brought under the control of the Chola Empire, and colonized by the Tamils?
The visayas probably can get controlled by the Cholas, Luzon can get muslim sooner due to butterflies..
 
The visayas probably can get controlled by the Cholas, Luzon can get muslim sooner due to butterflies..

Nor sure if Luzon will be Muslim, most likely Manila and some coastal cities that submit to Brunei. That is if Brunei can hold Luzon longer rather than the locals rebelling. Brunei is a foreign invader just like Spain.

Eventually some foreign power will overpower Brunei. Brunei aint in the same level of tier as the Europeans.

Brunei has no system in making everything Islam. OTL Sarawak and Sabah are proofs of this. They were majority pagan, not Islam before the British arrived. Even their vassals/allies in Sulu reflected this in Mindanao with a ruling Islamic elite with majority pagan population.

For the sake of the topic, yes Brunei has a possibility to colonize Luzon until someone takes Luzon away from them. Luzon is too near China and too attractive for the Europeans wanting to trade with China.

My take here is the Portuguese at first few years. Absent of the Portuguese, a Chinese kingdom under Limahong by 1574 who literally plans to make Luzon his kingdom unless one butterflies Wanli emperor chasing Limahong away from CHina. He would have flatten Brunei and her vassals in his 1574 invasion.

The Chinese would have superior numbers, superior tech/organization vs Brunei and vassal states. Brunei doesnt have sufficient firepower to make Limahong and his fleet burn/retreat not unlike when the Spanish reinforcements arrived to help local defenses.

By 1600, if the Portuguese or the Limahong hasnt fortified their positions, the Dutch will be next in line.
 
Nor sure if Luzon will be Muslim, most likely Manila and some coastal cities that submit to Brunei. That is if Brunei can hold Luzon longer rather than the locals rebelling. Brunei is a foreign invader just like Spain.


Luzon did not become muslim because for a time it was under Majapahit Influence removing Majapahit might make them muslim since they had some ties Pasai/Sumadera aside from Medan, Pasai/Sumadera was one of the first muslim states.
 
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I also see an independent Northern Luzon/Saludong under Bruneian Vassalage shifting to the Americans if the US still exist in order to free themselves from their agreement/vassalage with Bruneians.
 
After going to Church on the weekend and hearing a reading taken from St. Paul's Letter to the Philippines, could the Romans or Greeks do it? ;)
 
By 1600, if the Portuguese or the Limahong hasnt fortified their positions, the Dutch will be next in line.

I wonder how enticing would the prospect be for the Dutch VOC as they are sweeping through Indonesia, and in turn, if they manage it, that could impact their trade with Japan and their campaigns in China.
 

Zachariah

Banned
Nor sure if Luzon will be Muslim, most likely Manila and some coastal cities that submit to Brunei. That is if Brunei can hold Luzon longer rather than the locals rebelling. Brunei is a foreign invader just like Spain.

Eventually some foreign power will overpower Brunei. Brunei aint in the same level of tier as the Europeans.

Brunei has no system in making everything Islam. OTL Sarawak and Sabah are proofs of this. They were majority pagan, not Islam before the British arrived. Even their vassals/allies in Sulu reflected this in Mindanao with a ruling Islamic elite with majority pagan population.

For the sake of the topic, yes Brunei has a possibility to colonize Luzon until someone takes Luzon away from them. Luzon is too near China and too attractive for the Europeans wanting to trade with China.

My take here is the Portuguese at first few years. Absent of the Portuguese, a Chinese kingdom under Limahong by 1574 who literally plans to make Luzon his kingdom unless one butterflies Wanli emperor chasing Limahong away from CHina. He would have flatten Brunei and her vassals in his 1574 invasion.

The Chinese would have superior numbers, superior tech/organization vs Brunei and vassal states. Brunei doesnt have sufficient firepower to make Limahong and his fleet burn/retreat not unlike when the Spanish reinforcements arrived to help local defenses.

By 1600, if the Portuguese or the Limahong hasnt fortified their positions, the Dutch will be next in line.
The Rajahnate of Cebu, established by Sri Lumay, came first, back in the 13th century; and he was commissioned by the Maharajah of the Chola Empire to establish a base for their army force, from which they'd presumably go on to conquer the rest of the Philippines. So what if Sri Lumay hadn't gone rogue, or if a more loyal, more patriotic prince had been sent to establish the colonial base in his stead? Could we have seen a more profoundly Indianized Philippines, with a Hindu or Buddhist majority instead?
 
The Rajahnate of Cebu, established by Sri Lumay, came first, back in the 13th century; and he was commissioned by the Maharajah of the Chola Empire to establish a base for their army force, from which they'd presumably go on to conquer the rest of the Philippines. So what if Sri Lumay hadn't gone rogue, or if a more loyal, more patriotic prince had been sent to establish the colonial base in his stead? Could we have seen a more profoundly Indianized Philippines, with a Hindu or Buddhist majority instead?
It could mean that Luzon gets muslim due to Sumatran influence...via Pasai.
 
Luzon did not become muslim because for a time it was under Majapahit Influence removing Majapahit might make them muslim since they had some ties Pasai/Sumadera aside from Medan, Pasai/Sumadera was one of the first muslim states.

Majapahit was in decline since the 1400s and focused on internal wars, completely gone by 1520s. Brunei invaded Manila 1498-1499. That is around 70 years before Spanish and/or Limahong invades, 100 years before the Dutch arrives.

Like I said, Brunei had no proof, organization, system whatsoever in making majority of the people under its control or its vassal convert to Islam. Sarawak, Sabah adjacent to Brunei were all majority non Muslim until the British settled Muslim Malays there. Mindanao/Palawan were mostly pagan until 20th century and was never majority Muslim.

There was probably more Chinese settlers/merchants or Japanese settlers/merchants than those who converted to Muslim by the time Limahong arrives. When Rajah Sulayman rebelled he could only muster 2,000 troops, Chinese on the other had like 30,000 rebelling during the 1603 Sangley rebellion wherein 20,000 Chinese were massacred by the Spanish. The Japanese during this time had an estimated 1500-3000 people living in Manila.

There is a greater chance Luzon would be heavily Chinese than Muslim.

The most likely Islamization in Luzon would be the elites rather than the whole population assuming no one invades Luzon/Philippines or the Chinese settlers/merchants overthrowing the Islamic elites in Manila.

I wonder how enticing would the prospect be for the Dutch VOC as they are sweeping through Indonesia, and in turn, if they manage it, that could impact their trade with Japan and their campaigns in China.

They could. Dutch tried to control Formosa at one point in time. I think the catch would be if Luzon would be under Chinese control or not once the Dutch arrives in 1600s. This could create a problem like in Formosa.

The Rajahnate of Cebu, established by Sri Lumay, came first, back in the 13th century; and he was commissioned by the Maharajah of the Chola Empire to establish a base for their army force, from which they'd presumably go on to conquer the rest of the Philippines. So what if Sri Lumay hadn't gone rogue, or if a more loyal, more patriotic prince had been sent to establish the colonial base in his stead? Could we have seen a more profoundly Indianized Philippines, with a Hindu or Buddhist majority instead?

Heavily Indianized yes. Philippines had Indian influence for centuries. Hindu/Buddhist, I dont know since Philippines even if it was influenced by India for centuries did not convert animist population into Hindu/Buddhist.

I suppose Sri Lumay, after conquest, can force everyone to convert from Animism to Hindu/Buddhist at least those who did not convert yet. But the problem would be fortifying and strengthen Buddhist/Hindu religion before Islam arrives since the Majapahit were a regional power roughly the same time then slowly disintegrates starting 1400s.
 
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Majapahit was in decline since the 1400s and focused on internal wars, completely gone by 1520s. Brunei invaded Manila 1498-1499. That is around 70 years before Spanish and/or Limahong invades, 100 years before the Dutch arrives.

There was probably more Chinese settlers/merchants or Japanese settlers/merchants than those who converted to Muslim by the time Limahong arrives. When Rajah Sulayman rebelled he could only muster 2,000 troops, Chinese on the other had like 30,000 rebelling during the 1603 Sangley rebellion wherein 20,000 Chinese were massacred by the Spanish. The Japanese during this time had an estimated 1500-3000 people living in Manila.
The Northern Half of Luzon is under the enemies of Bruneians so them allying with Limahong is possible, they were not able to because they were prevented by Lakandula from allying with Limahong to expel the Bruneians and Spanish due to a marriage treaty and the defeat of Tarik in Bangkusay, if that happened and Tarik and Northern Luzon allies with Limahong to expel the Bruneians and Spanish, Limahong could be given Manila and Southern Luzon(where the majority of chinese settlers live) and the strongholds of Bruneians while the enemies of the Bruneians get back Tondo and the other areas stolen by Bruneians.

In that scenario Northern Luzon becomes a Japanese ally/client due to Northern Luzon was the trading entrepot between Japan/Ryukyu and Malay Archipelago.

Actually, Luzon being divided into Japanese and Chinese influence areas is possible and that also prevents Sakoku, the Japanese Client state can be a intermediary between the Japanese and the Dutch, perjaps causing them to be a dutch protectorate later on.

i was told by a historian that the center of the Chinese influence and settlement is in Southern Luzon.
 
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