Who could have gotten a third term?

samcster94

Banned
What two termer do you think could have gotten a third term post 22nd Amendment?? I am excluding Nixon for obvious reasons.
Here is a list of two termers who could have gotten a third term in my opinion:
Truman(who was exempt):probably not due to party fatigue with Dems.
Eisenhower: He'd have a good shot on paper, but it'd depend on his opponent(depends on if JFK runs).
LBJ:No, he'd have had no chance if he had run.
Reagan: Almost certainly. He was even succeeded by a different Republican anyway.
Clinton: Maybe, but the stains(no pun intended) on his legacy would have not make it easy(Bush might be close, but someone like McCain might have beaten him).
Bush: He has nearly zero chance.
Obama: Likely, but like Eisenhower, depends on his opponent(Rubio might have a shot, Trump wouldn't).
 
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What does the law say about Ford? Could he had served his term, won in 1976, and won again in 1980?

Reagan was 77 in 1988. I wonder if he would have relished the thought of being President at the age of 81. Along similar lines I have the impression that Eisenhower was sick of the job by the time he left.

Obama is the obvious choice, Clinton second, but a distant second. Gore was essentially Clinton but without the semen, and he only lost by a few votes. Kennedy is fascinating and I suppose his performance in the polls depends on the course of Vietnam. Could he continue to sell Vietnam even with no end in sight?

If Kennedy had been president in 1972 his name would now be on the moon. Instead of Richard Nixon's. He would have got to see his boys land on the moon.
 
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What does the law say about Ford? Could he had served his term, won in 1976, and won again in 1980?.
Ford, if he won in 1976, would not be eligible to run for president in 1980 because he served more than two years of Nixon's last term. Since he lost in 1976, Ford was eligible for one more full term in 1980 or after.
 
Truman: If he would had run in 1952, he would had lost. Weak economy and Korea would be problems for him.
Eisenhower: Too bad health so I doubt that he would run if it would be possible. And even if he would run he surely would win the elction but I doubt that he would survive from third term.
Kennedy: If not assassinated he might win second term but not sure if he would run anymore in '68 due weak health. Not sure could he win even if runs.
Johnson: Without Vietnam he could win third term.
Nixon: Even without Watergate I am bit unsure could he win.
Ford: Him should be very lucky win the election.
Carter: Very implausible that he would win second term. He was already quiet doomed.
Reagan: Reagan had already serious symptoms of Alzheimer so surely he wouldn't run. But if he would, he probably would win but would be enforced to resign quiet soon.
GHWB: Even victory of second term would be quiet narrow so I doubt that he would win third term.
Clinton: He was quiet popular in 2000 so he surely would win.
GWB: Not any chances. Republicans weren't very popular in 2008 and Bush was very unpopular.
Obama: Possible.
 
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Eisenhower would certainly have won in 1960. Reagan might have won, but his margin of victory would've been less than that of 1980 and 1984. And I wouldn't be surprised if he resigned at some point in his third term. Believe it or not, but I think if he went for a fourth term he would've lost. Reagan would've been 81 in 1992, and by that point the bad economy and his visible decline in health could serve to do him in against Clinton. Speaking of which, I think Clinton would've won in 2000. But again, a fourth term in 2004 is much less likely. Especially if he were going up against McCain. Obama would've crushed Trump in 2016.
 
On balance, Clinton is the most likely. The economy was still good, there was peace abroad, and his health issues weren't evident yet. It would be a close race, but I think Clinton eeks out the win, only to have a rough third term. Sure, people thought he was a scumbag personally, but approved of the job that he did none the less and I can see Hillary holding off on a political career of her own if Bill has the chance of being the longest serving President since FDR. He's done by 2004 though.

After Clinton, Ike, but only if Mamie allows him to. Given how close Kennedy vs. Nixon of OTL was, I don't think JFK beats Ike, which means a less talented Democrat wouldn't either.1960 of TTL will be almost as close as OTL, and there's a good chance Ike doesn't finish the term and if he does, he barely does. Reagan is in the same boat as Ike, in a sense that he'd only run if his health and Nancy would allow it. If they did, he wins, but by a narrower margin than 1980 or 1984, or even Bush's OTL 1988 win. I think he'd end up resigning by 1991 at the latest though as I think his Alzheimer's diagnosis would be sped up in a third term.

Obama is the next likely and his chances are mixed and that's if Michelle is willing to go through a third run. If Mitt Romney had a chance at beating him in 2012, I think Obama can be beaten in 2016 if the right candidate and campaign is waged against him. The recovery was uneven, and up until 2014, weak and International events weren't kind to Obama in his second term. However, the GOP was a rabid train wreck. In short, if Trump still ends up being the nominee or if Cruz, Jeb, or someone like Carson or Fiorina got nominated, Obama wins, if it's Kasich or even Rubio, I think Obama loses, abet narrowly. Nixon's chances at a third term, in the event that Watergate is prevented, are roughly the same as Obama's in a sense that it all depends on who the Democrats nominate against him and what kind of campaign they wage.

LBJ, in the event that he runs and wins in 1968, Truman, and Bush 43 are the least likely to get third terms, it'd be impossible for them to do so. The single termers aren't happening for obvious reasons.

So to summarize, from most likely to least likely to get a third term:

1. Clinton
2 (tie). Ike
2 (tie). Reagan
4 (tie). Obama
4 (tie). Nixon
6. Truman
7. Dubya
8. LBJ (if he did seek a second elected term, I doubt he survives it)
 
While these assessments are of the ‘everything else being equal’ kind the complexity here is that the ability to run for a third term would significantly change a President’s second term legislative and governing strategy...
 
Eisenhower: He'd have a good shot on paper, but it'd depend on his opponent(depends on if JFK runs).

IMO there is not the slightest chance that JFK--who barely defeated Nixon--could defeat Ike, who was far more popular than Nixon.

When Ike campaigned for Nixon in the week before the election, there were more than a few signs saying "We Like Ike But We Back Jack." https://books.google.com/books?id=SUUVAgAAQBAJ&pg=PA84

(As a reminder of Ike's popularity in places JFK carried against Nixon: In 1956, campaigning against Stevenson, who had been a popular governor of Illinois, Ike carried not just Illinois, not just Cook County, but the city of Chicago itself!)
 

samcster94

Banned
What does the law say about Ford? Could he had served his term, won in 1976, and won again in 1980?

Reagan was 77 in 1988. I wonder if he would have relished the thought of being President at the age of 81. Along similar lines I have the impression that Eisenhower was sick of the job by the time he left.

Obama is the obvious choice, Clinton second, but a distant second. Gore was essentially Clinton but without the semen, and he only lost by a few votes. Kennedy is fascinating and I suppose his performance in the polls depends on the course of Vietnam. Could he continue to sell Vietnam even with no end in sight?

If Kennedy had been president in 1972 his name would now be on the moon. Instead of Richard Nixon's. He would have got to see his boys land on the moon.
I think Clinton 00 would have also been close(due to the semen) either way. Reagan interests me as Bush Sr was the closest thing to a third term(given he was also a Republican) since the 22nd Amendment.
 
Reagan: Reagan had already serious symptoms of Alzheimer so surely he wouldn't run. But if he would, he probably would win but would be enforced to resign quiet soon.

He likely would have been visibly debilitated in front of the cameras. I don't mean like missing a word here and there, more like a panelist in the debate asks him a question about Iran-Contra, and he answers with a statement about golf.

And, IIRC, Bush Sr. was not polling exceptionally well early in the '88 campaign, and only started to pick up steam after Dukakis responded to the Willie Horton thing as if he were talking about furloughing a conterfeiter. I'm open to correction on this, but my impression has always been that GHW Bush did not win on Reagan's coattails.
 
Ike and Reagan both had health/age problems which could have been a problem.

Clinton had scandal but was still popular in 2000 so he would have had a good chance

GWB might have if the crash of 2008 didn't happen

Obama had the best chance. Not to get into current politics but HRC ran an awful campaign in 2016 and Obama would have done much better.
 
Ike and Reagan both had health/age problems which could have been a problem.

Ike's health problems were much more obvious in 1956 than in 1960, yet Stevenson's attempt to use the "health issue" (warning that re-electing Eisenhower would lead to a Nixon presidency) was a complete failure.
 
Clinton I think would suffer from the scandals not in the sense that it made him unpopular but that the nation would want to move on and a 3rd term would just keep all the baggage front and center. The ability for a 3rd term would dramatically alter people’s perception of voting for him for 4 more years as supporting him and opposing his impeachment. A lot of Bush’s support was based on moving past the Clinton years. It is possible but I am of the opinion it would be a closer race than one would think.

Reagan is in a similar position as he is personally popular , with his presidency overall viewed as a success. However another term means the country has to contend with how responsible Reagan was for Iran contra. He has a good chance to win like Clinton but fatigue and wanting to move past it should not be underestimated. Sort of an Atlee/Churchill scenario. We love thanks you did a great job but let’s move on.

Eisenhower is probably the only one that’s a show in. He was not a polarizing figure. Well respected by both sides, no personal link to a scandal. A figure viewed as a national hero reguardless of party.
 
Most recently I'd say Reagan, the would he run given his Alzheimer's?
Clinton, but the whole Monica Lewinsky thing could hurt his chances but then again he's up against W.
Obama, he's up against Trump. A Obama Trump debate would have shown Obama's would have highlighted Obama's strengths and it's supposed Trump's weaknesses.
Go back a little further I'd say Eisenhower, but his health issues might have become a factor.
 
I wonder how many popular presidents would become less popular if they decided to go for a Third Term? Due to the combination of breaking precedent and voter attrition. They also probably get more criticized by the other party when the other party focuses more on them then the new candidate.
 
I wonder how many popular presidents would become less popular if they decided to go for a Third Term? Due to the combination of breaking precedent and voter attrition. They also probably get more criticized by the other party when the other party focuses more on them then the new candidate.

True. I can't see many third termers being very popular if then they doesn't do that in very acceptable reason. Washington's precedent was very strong. Even FDR hadn't run third term without WW2. If president hasn't very good reason run third term he might be seen powerhungry person who can't give up of his presidency. Even own party wouldn't be very happy. I am pretty sure that president would be pressured not run fourth term.
 
8. LBJ (if he did seek a second elected term, I doubt he survives it)
He only died so early OTL because he drank and smoked himself to death out of spite due to losing the Presidency. If he doesn't do that, he could probably have lived to the late '70s, maybe early '80s if he was really lucky.
 
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