Who Benefits from a Delayed Franco-Prussian War?

Anaxagoras

Banned
Suppose that, for whatever reason, the Franco-Prussian War is delayed for a few years and breaks out in the mid-1870s rather than 1870. Does this delay benefit France, benefit Prussia and its allies, or does it not really give any advantage to either side?
 
Henri Guillemin if I remmeber well may have said that in this case the 'gens de biens', the bourgeois and capitalistic powers of France may be not gainign there on a few levels... Inner french politic was pushing for war if I remember well.
 
There's some evidence that Napoleon III was planning on abdicating in favour of his son the Prince Imperial so that the latter could liberalise on a clean(er) slate. In any case if it's much beyond 1873 it's likely that Napoleon III will be dead. This could mean that France is more liberal and has reduced social tensions when the war hits.
 

Anaxagoras

Banned
If the military reforms underway on both sides in the late 1860s had been allowed to continue, could the war have gone better for France? Or would it have gone better for Prussia?
 
Well, given that the most glaring problem on the French side was the top military leadership, any delay that gets Nappy III, MacMahon, and Bazaine out of the way can only but benefit the French. Nothing I've read over the years lays any of the blame on the training, weaponry, or logistics of the French Army. While the Prussian artillery may have been superior to the French, the Chassepot rifle was greatly superior to what Prussian soldiers were carrying. A few extra years would probably even out each sides' advantages in these fields.
 
French logistics in 1870/71 was poor compared to Prussia.

It's the railroads that was Prussia's key advantage : they could bring fresh troops quickly.

And the french lacked maps.
 
GIve French diplomacy some years to work and they MIGHT get the Italians and Austrians interested in an alliance.

Maybe that borders ASB territory:

Say they can strike a deal - Austria is to cede some territory Italy wants (we all know what) in exchange for a large piece of Prussia (say Silesia).

If you delay the war long enough (late 70s) you might have the Russo- Turkish war be the spark of a larger war. England and France will be helping the OE and want to repeat the Crimean War - with BETTER logistics and better prepared ;) - OTL Prussia/Germany was neutral but TTL there is no Germany (just Prussia with a few southern states) - there is a chance that Bismarck is not as important as OTL, so the Prussian king is supporting the Russians this time (he sees what neutrality did to Austria last time ;)). THis might spark a French reaction and a French (but not UK) DOW on Prussia - with Italy and Austria following. Voila a large European war in the late 70s.

I am not predicting an outcome of this but I believe it likely that the Prussian/Russian side is likely to loose that war.

IIRC Napoleons son died in the Zulu war - so you can assume he was a courageous man - so he can be an inspiration to the French troops.

As a mean twist you could kill off Wilhelm II as he started his military tor in 1877...
 
GIve French diplomacy some years to work and they MIGHT get the Italians and Austrians interested in an alliance.

Maybe that borders ASB territory:

Say they can strike a deal - Austria is to cede some territory Italy wants (we all know what) in exchange for a large piece of Prussia (say Silesia).

If you delay the war long enough (late 70s) you might have the Russo- Turkish war be the spark of a larger war. England and France will be helping the OE and want to repeat the Crimean War - with BETTER logistics and better prepared ;) - OTL Prussia/Germany was neutral but TTL there is no Germany (just Prussia with a few southern states) - there is a chance that Bismarck is not as important as OTL, so the Prussian king is supporting the Russians this time (he sees what neutrality did to Austria last time ;)). THis might spark a French reaction and a French (but not UK) DOW on Prussia - with Italy and Austria following. Voila a large European war in the late 70s....


Is Austria likely to risk it? She is very exposed, and even if her Frenc ally gains some land in the Saar or the Palatinate, this is small consolation for a Russo-Prussian occupation of Vienna.
 
The question for Vienna in 1870/71 was not "what can the Prussians do" - It was "What do the Italians do?"

If Italy is allied with France (and Austria), Vienna would decide its worth the risk. If in addition teh OE and the Brits are of Viennas side then even Russia is not an obstacle to Vienna.

After all Russia and Prussia have multiple Fronts to cover, so they likely can't concentrate on Austria. It even is likely that some (or all) Southern German states declare for Austria (or stay neutral).

OTLs Treaty of San Stefano was something neither France, the UK nor Austria could accept. OTL Prussia was seen as a "neutral" arbiter and teh dispute was settled at the Congress of Berlin. - But assume Prussia is weaker (as there is no war of 1870/71) and France is stronger. Prussia can not make a show as the honest in between and the risk of war was high even with Prussia in between. So instead of a congress of Berlin a war breaks out in early/mid 1878 (after San Stefano).
 
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