Whites win Russian civil war

What if the whites won the Russian civil war? Let’s say they were able to win and defeat the reds and thus the USSR never exists. What are the butterflies of a scenario like this? How will society, politics, and other things in the 20th century change without a Soviet Union? What might WW2 be like?
 
The Whites were such a mix of different ideas that is impossible to say how Russia would turn out, there would probably be second civil war to sort out their differences.
 
Which Whites? And how do they win it? The outcome of a White civil war could mean anything from a reinstatement of the Russian Republic vis-à-vis Kerensky, or the institution of a brutal autocracy under Kolchak or someone, or the return of the Romanov Tsars. I think the most realistic victory would be a situation involving a successful march on Moscow by Denikin. Maybe Nestor Makhno leaves Denikin's rearguard alone, giving Denikin more leeway to assault and capture Moscow? I'm not sure. Anyway, Denikin's exact ideology is hard to place, but Russia under him would probably resemble something of an oppressive aristocratic-military dictatorship. He entertained the idea of the reinstating the monarchy, but it is unlikely that it would have any real power. I think that a Russia under Denikin, Wrangel, or Kolchak would still be fairly weak, as they were proponents of fairly backwards-looking economic policies, and took the aristocracy's (extremely outdated) role in Russian society very seriously. I can't see Russia developing industrially under them.
 
As I read about Denikin, he was more of a moderate and pragmatic man, but his biggest fault (which is telling enough about him) is that he was unable to enforce discipline among his subordinates, something Wrangel would criticize much about him, and much more interested in keeping a consensus between heterogeneous factions of his forces (he said something like 'if I declare either for the Republic or for the monarchy, half of my army would mutiny', or so I vaguely remember reading). Denikin had put much emphasis on the political part of his job. Meanwhile, as I see them, Wrangel and Kolchak were keeping mostly to their military job and political matters were a secondary concern, in the way the government apparatus was supposed to follow orders as any soldier.
I'm not sure what a Denikin regime would end up being, but his OTL weak willed leadership could well lead Russia onto the path of warlordism as happened in China into the 1920s.
 
Whites would have great difficulties win the war. Problem was that them hadn't any common ideology. Only issue what they agree was removal of Bolshevik regime. If someone is not strong enough take power and quickly purge other generals if they don't agree Russia might see China style warlord era.
 
Depending on which kind, they could have won.
I myself thought of the SRs winning after the battle of Kazan in late 1918 instead. It's an early pod, but it empowers a faction that is somewhat more coherent ideologically and politically than any other White movement afterwards, ie after Kolchak coup.
 
Depending on which kind, they could have won.
I myself thought of the SRs winning after the battle of Kazan in late 1918 instead. It's an early pod, but it empowers a faction that is somewhat more coherent ideologically and politically than any other White movement afterwards, ie after Kolchak coup.

The SRs were not very coherent ideologically and politically, read David T's post in https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...e-russia-have-been-like.342750/#post-10265263, for an example of how divided they were.
 
If the Whites win, they probably unite behind a single unifying figure, which means a military-esque dictatorship right off, and they probably remain a military dictatorship through WWII at least. Beyond that, they probably democratize over time, and any Cold War is more of a rivalry between the West and Russia rather than a full-on scare.

May be disastrous for the US as a whole, especially if the Civil Rights movement turns hot.
 
If the Whites win, they probably unite behind a single unifying figure, which means a military-esque dictatorship right off, and they probably remain a military dictatorship through WWII at least. Beyond that, they probably democratize over time, and any Cold War is more of a rivalry between the West and Russia rather than a full-on scare.

May be disastrous for the US as a whole, especially if the Civil Rights movement turns hot.

White victory would cause much of butterflies. Probably there wouldn't beeven WW2. Hitler hardly rises to power when there is not Communists around. And what Cold War? There hardly would be US-Russian Cold War.
 
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Hard to say for sure...I wonder if it leads to a similar scenario from Turtledove's Timeline 191 where Russia still remains an agricultural state instead of a modern, industrialized 20th century state. Those who read those books remember that failure to modernize had serious consequences.
 
Hard to say for sure...I wonder if it leads to a similar scenario from Turtledove's Timeline 191 where Russia still remains an agricultural state instead of a modern, industrialized 20th century state. Those who read those books remember that failure to modernize had serious consequences.

It totally depends what kind of government Russia has. And I wouldn't take TL-191 as example in any scenario when these are quiet implausible and butterfly killing. Russia probably is more agrarian but not necessarility totally backward.
 
White victory would cause much of butterflies. Probably there wouldn't beeven WW2. Hitler hardly rises to power when there is not Communists around. And what Cold War? There hardly would be US-Russian Cold War.
There probably wouldn’t be a Cold War at all actually. Russo-American relations will be much better in TTL.
 
One interesting to think about is that the Allies (France, Great Britain, and the USA) demanded that the Whites set up a democratic government that preserved land reform which would upset some uber-conservatives.

Of course the Allies got around recognizing the Whites just as the height of their fortunes and within weeks the Bolsheviks would have them on the run
 

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I imagine we would end up with several Russia’s, all claiming legitimacy to be the “true” Russia. Ukraine might take its chance and escape, Poland’s independence is probably backed by France and god knows what happens in the Caucasus.

Interesting butterflies in the post-WWI world, though. Would we even see a German-Muscovy(?) alliance? A war fought a bit further West in the East of Europe?
 
There probably wouldn’t be a Cold War at all actually. Russo-American relations will be much better in TTL.

America's foreign policy is still to this day yoked to a a pseudo scientific theory from the beginning of the 20th century that states that the US should be actively sabotaging or preventing the rise of powerful states in Eurasia i.e. it doesn't matter whether Russia is tsarist, communist, or democratic.
 
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