White Victory in RCW

Tsao

Banned
I realize that the Whites weren't necessarily united, but, supposing they beat the Reds in 1919, what kind of government would arise in Russia? Or would Russia fall into warlordism?
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
Donor
While many would argue for Czarist restoration due to the clearly Absolutist bias among many White generals, the most likely outcome would probably still be a declaration of a Republic. Of course the question would be if said republic is democratic or a junta.

And warlordism is very possible. It could well end with an official government proclaimed in Petrograd, but most generals would still end up carving out personal empires for themselves, and only nominally be under the authority of the Petrograd government.
 

Tsao

Banned
While many would argue for Czarist restoration due to the clearly Absolutist bias among many White generals, the most likely outcome would probably still be a declaration of a Republic. Of course the question would be if said republic is democratic or a junta.

And warlordism is very possible. It could well end with an official government proclaimed in Petrograd, but most generals would still end up carving out personal empires for themselves, and only nominally be under the authority of the Petrograd government.

If a republic were declared, who would be most likely to lead it? Some White general? Also what happens in Ukraine and Turkestan? Is there any chance of independence there?
 

MSZ

Banned
Assuming the whites win the war without being united, it's most likely that whoever makes it to Moscow first will claim rulership. Or whoever wins the second civil war fought between the whites themselves (monarchist against republicans for example). Proclamation of a republic seems a bit more likely than a restoration of the monarchy, at least early on - the monarchy was was finished as an institution and virtually no social group seeked to restore it (apart of some parts of the russian nobility). The monarchy could be restored later on though, once the first republic due to the crisis (political and economical) it would have to go through - a pro-tzarist sentiment among the older population saying "life was better under the tzars" could allow for the monarchy to be reinstated.
 

Tsao

Banned
Assuming the whites win the war without being united, it's most likely that whoever makes it to Moscow first will claim rulership. Or whoever wins the second civil war fought between the whites themselves (monarchist against republicans for example). Proclamation of a republic seems a bit more likely than a restoration of the monarchy, at least early on - the monarchy was was finished as an institution and virtually no social group seeked to restore it (apart of some parts of the russian nobility). The monarchy could be restored later on though, once the first republic due to the crisis (political and economical) it would have to go through - a pro-tzarist sentiment among the older population saying "life was better under the tzars" could allow for the monarchy to be reinstated.

Who were the big White Republican leaders at the time?
 
I think the White leaders wanted to hold a Constituent Assembly after the defeat of the Bolsheviks, which at least some of them seemed to think would lead to a restoration of the monarchy.

(I read a lot about the RCW when I was in high school, so I may not be remembering everything clearly.)
 
Also, ideologically any White Russia was against losing any part of the Empire, though if the situation is truly hopeless they may go for pragmatic options.

Still, Ukraine and Turkestan are a pretty important goal, I don't see any period Russian government letting go of them easily.
 

MSZ

Banned
Who were the big White Republican leaders at the time?

Pyotr Wrangel was a Republican, as was Pyotr Krasnov (at least according to the Memoirs of Denikin, and some of their own policies and declarations) and both made very high in the Whites hierarchy. Nikolai Yudenich too wasn't much of a monarchist, he opposed the "One and Undivided Russia" concept the monarchistst supported. The problem is that the White leaders weren't politicians, they rarely declared their idea of what kind of Russia they were fighting for. So while a few known leaders were genuine monarchists and open about it, (Denikin, Kolchak) most of them were quite on political matters and simply opposed the bolsheviks, not supporting the reinstatement of the monarchy, but not declaring opposition to it either.
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
Donor
Kolchak was the most open Monarchist. Denikin was a Monarchist, but he didn't want the old order to return, and could probably settle for a Republic. Another factor would be the Duma. How influential would the Duma and the civilian politicians be allowed to become. The Socialist Revolutionaries would probably be the largest party, and could the generals really stomach working together with leftists?

Considering the Ukraine, it probably depend on Poland a lot. One can assume the Polish like OTL expanded their border eastwards due to the relative instability in Russia. A Ukrainian state could probably only be created as a Polish puppet (or as a warlord state under some White general nominally loyal to Petrograd). Ukrainian nationalism was strongest in East Galizia, but I can't see the Poles not annexing that region.

Woul Petrograd or Moscow be the capital? I guess it depend on where the leaders feel more comfortable to rule.

Turkestan: Well Bukhara and Khiva both declared independence OTL, so their survival would depend on Russia's ability to wage a Central Asian campaign. The Kazakh territories are more problematic. I could see the Alash Orda party try to establish some kind of autonomous region within Russia (but raise a militia ready to revolt if the Russians become too unpleasant).

The Caucasus: The Democratic Republic of Armenia, the Democratic Republic of Georgia, the Azeri Democratic Republic and the Mountainous Republic of the Northern Caucasus would probably be declared as OTL. Again their survival would depend on Russia's ability to reconquer them. The Kuban and Don Cossacks also declared their own republics, but with a White victory they'd probably try to aim for some kind of autonomy within Russia.
 
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For them to beat the Reds requires them to square a number of circles, starting with unavoidably vast space, the greater cohesion of the Red Bloc and the inability of Whites to get around being outnumbered 10:1 attacking defenders who heavily outnumber them in the core of the Russian Empire.
 
and could probably settle for a Republic. Another factor would be the Duma. How influential would the Duma and the civilian politicians be allowed to become. The Socialist Revolutionaries would probably be the largest party, and could the generals really stomach working together with leftists?

Kolchak certainly started merrily lopping off their heads within months of taking power in Siberia, if that's any indication, and the Volunteer army suspended som of the local SR-dominated soviets in the occupied Volga cities.

So make of that what you will.
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
Donor
Kolchak certainly started merrily lopping off their heads within months of taking power in Siberia, if that's any indication, and the Volunteer army suspended som of the local SR-dominated soviets in the occupied Volga cities.

So make of that what you will.
Well if Kolchak got what he wanted the Czars would be back, and the Romanovs would officially name him "their bestest friend". And yes, there would be the glorious return of Absolutist rule (with the exception that the Czar's bestest friend would be allowed to rule somewhat too!)
 
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