White Siberia - Russian Civil War

[Abdul Hadi Pasha]

In OTL, the situation in the Russian Civil War was created by a bizarre set of circumstances. A Czech Legion had been created by the Tsar to serve against Austria-Hungary. After the Revolution, the Czechs negotiated with the Bolsheviks access across Siberia to Vladivostok from whence they would sail to France and serve on the Western Front.

Due to a confused set of circumstances, they ended up falling out with the Reds and in control over almost all of Siberia. Their aim was to get out without getting involved in internal Russian affairs, but that was a practical impossibility, and they ended up being the only real fighting force in Russia, and ended up fighting on the side of the Whites.

There was also a small Polish Legion, which also ended up fighting with the Whites.

A Provisional All-Russian Government was set up in Omsk which claimed to be the legitimate government of all of Russia, but in reality only controlled most of Siberia.

Present in the area due to another complicated set of circumstances was Russian hero Aleksandr Kolchak, former Black Sea fleet commander and famed polar explorer, who became defense minister, and eventually after a coup, he was installed as Supreme Leader.

A further wrinkle is that the Tsarist gold reserve had been relocated to Omsk, giving Kolchak's regime a rather immense stash of money (about $323M or £66M, enough for 30 Dreadnoughts).

The problem was that Kolchak knew nothing of ground operations and was an oppressive and poor leader. He launched an offensive to try to overthrow the Bolsheviks and take over the entirety of Russia. He had some excesses, but overextended and ended up getting destroyed by the Reds. His brutality and autocracy alienated the USA, which refused to give him any aid.

So the question is, what if a more able man had been on the scene, with a more realistic appraisal of his resources?

Instead of throwing away all his resources trying to defeat the much larger Red Russia (the population under his control was about 7M and the total population of Siberia was around 9.5M - Red Russia's was far greater at the time - something like 70M), what if a Siberian leader consolidates his position and build a real state?

The gold reserve makes much possible, and even though the region is huge and sparsely settled, the Trans-Siberian Railway does link it all together. the Westernmost parts of Siberia are vulnerable to Russia proper, but past Novosibirsk the rail line runs through mountains and is easily defensible.

What are the prospects for White Siberia? It has a population of between 9-10M, tons of resources, decent communications, a healthy economy, a distinct identity, a huge stash of money, respectable troops, and possibly support from the USA and anyone who would like an anti-Communist regime to act as a bulwark against Japanese expansion into Asia.

There are also huge problems, like Red Russia and Japan, along with the lack of population - but Finland and the Baltics managed to maintain independence with far lesser resources.

What do you think?

 

[DaleCoz]

I don't think an independent Siberia would last long-term, but I certainly think a more capable leadership could have held out longer, especially if the other White leaders had remained in play for a while.

I'm not sure that a defensive strategy was the best strategy for White armies. The Reds had, as you noted, control of a much larger population, and more industry. They also had competent military men in their army. They were going to eventually build up an overwhelmingly powerful army and pick the White forces off one at a time if they maintained control of the area they controlled. Maybe a more coherent offensive before the Reds got their act together might have been the better strategy. Treating peasants better or at least giving lip-service to more peasant-friendly agenda would have helped a lot.

 

[Wolfpaw]

I don't really see it working out, even if somebody other than Kolchak's in charge. I mean, there's the issue of reining in East Siberian adventurists like Ungern fon Shternberg and Semyonov, which in and of itself is going to be irritating at best.

Ultimately the biggest obstacle to a successfully independent White Siberia is, like you mentioned, the vast population disparity. 70 The Reds need Siberia and its vast resources and it knows it needs Siberia's resources, so they are going to do their level best to grab it. Even though the Urals are a foreboding bulwark, the Reds outnumbering the Whites 10-1 is going to almost inevitably give them victory.

A White Siberia would also be unfeasible from a military standpoint. Apart from the population disparity, where are the Whites going to come up with the materiel to defend themselves? Even if the Whites manage to not alienate the Americans, those supply lines are terribly long and I can't see the US government agreeing to supply a White Siberia indefinitely, even with all that money.

Japan is also going to be a burden since its going to be able to basically hold the Whites hostage. The Whites core areas will likely be around Omsk and Irkutsk, both a significant distance from the vital port of Vladivostok. Now, the Whites have basically two options: they can garrison the Urals or they can garrison Vladivostok; they can't do both, and we both know which one they'll choose. So, if Tokyo ever gets angry at the Whites' line, they can basically grab Vladivostok and hold it for ransom. And honestly, who's going to stop them?

Basically, a White Siberia is going to be very short lived if it manages to really "live" at all. Finland and the Baltic States managed to survive because the fronts were far smaller. Even though Finland's military was only 30% the size of the USSR's, the small size of the front could serve sort of like a giant barbed-wired, bunker-defended, trenched, landmined Thermopylae. You really can't do that with a front as huge as Siberia. Not to mention the vastly shorter supply lines, materiel of a quality greater than or equal to the Soviets' in places like Finland and the Baltics.

Unless the Whites spend all of that gold on turning the Urals into the world's largest Maginot Line, they'll get overrun. And even then I can see the Bolsheviks being able to overcome it; the Red Army was stunningly impressive prior to the Purges.

That's all I can up with right now, I'll go pore over my RCW books to see if I can find a way to keep a White Siberia alive. Until then, I Blame Communism is going to be really useful on this thread.

 

[Abdul Hadi Pasha]

Well, there's no chance of White Siberia lasting past 1921 or so in any meaningful way if everything else goes the same, more or less regardless of who is in charge. And a defensive strategy isn't going to work, but a wildly overoptimistic offensive that doesn't really attempt to coordinate with anyone else is a recipe for certain and quick failure.

While I think the danger to the Reds was not as great as it is often portrayed, because they controlled most of the population and industry, and had better unity of command, the big problem with the Whites was that they had no real program or purpose to rally behind.

You essentially just had individual commanders backed by individual Entente powers pursuing their own agendas.

Yudenich's thrust at St. Petersburg was hopeless. It would have been better for him to have used his army in the South, from where the only real threat the Whites posed was originating. Etc.

The nature of the White movement would have made it very difficult for it to answer to one head - monarchists, anti-monarchists, Cossacks, etc., but a more intelligent use of resources and realistic goals would have made a difference.

For example, Yudenich might have had a chance if Deniken had been willing to recognize Finland's independence, and thus it's aid in the attack - but as Deniken was inflexible about retaining all of Russia, he gave up a chance to overthrow the Reds and regain almost all the empire just because he couldn't countenance losing Finland. That's just crazy.

 

[Wolfpaw]

Well, if it's a White victory you're looking for, Pasha, here's a re-post of mine you might enjoy

In October of 1919, Denikin was launching his offensive on Moscow. While the Whites were not what one would necessarily call "unified," they were far from the splintered warlords they would become in 1920 and for the remainder of the war.

Wrangel had fairly solid control over the majority of White forces in Southern Russia/the Ukraine since his spat with Denikin hadn't yet flared up (it was by and large caused by the decisive failure of the Moscow campaign), and the same goes for Yudenich in the Baltics and Kolchak in Siberia. In fact, up until 1920, Kolchak was still officially regarded by Denikin, Wrangel, and Yudenich as the legitimate Commander-in-Chief of all White forces.

If Denikin is not betrayed by Makhno while he's en route to Moscow, or if he just decides not to send six regiments back to fight Makhno (which they never wound up doing, the anarchists basically having just pulled an ineffectual hit-and-run on Denikin's supply lines before the reinforcements could do anything about it), Denikin would most likely have defeated the Bolsheviks at the Battle of Oryol.

A White victory at Oryol means that the Bolsheviks are going to reconsider the forces they sent to beef-up Petrograd (which they had previously thought of abandoning and were only dissuaded by Trotsky ignoring their opinions and sending them anyways) and call them back to the capital. This means that Petrograd will fall to Yudenich and, even if the Red forces make it back in time, Moscow will probably fall to Denikin.

We should remember that in OTL, the Whites only really started to come undone after 1919 (corruption, drug abuse, arms-dealing, black marketeering, etc. were already endemic to the Whites, but not yet cripplingly so). The winter of 1919 is when Yudenich bowed out, basically leaving Whites in the Baltics and northwestern Russia without a leader. It's also the year that Denikin and Wrangel started fighting over what to do with their forces, a fight that would lead to Wrangel's resignation (and later brief re-installment) and Denikin and his cronies-cum-warlords grabbing land, wantonly looting, alienating Ukrainians with cultural chauvinism, and basically reversing all of the progress that the reform-minded Wrangel had initiated, thereby losing the support of most of the peasantry. And Kolchak? Well, he just got more and more autocratic when he realized he was the Whites' last chance at achieving anything.

So there we have it. A White victory complete with all of the delicious butterflies that come with them still having refused to recognize Finnish and Polish independence .

 

[Abdul Hadi Pasha]

Well, if it's a White victory you're looking for, Pasha, here's a re-post of mine you might enjoy

Hmm. My issues here are that there are no real communications between the three White fronts, and they still lacked a program. What do the Whites really stand for?

Also St.P. was a huge and militant city, including a lot of sailors. Even if there were hardly any troops there at all Yudenich would have a hard time taking it.

Refusing Finland independence isn't the end of the world, but Poland would be an extremely difficult fight, and a deeply unpopular and unstable White regime wouldn't survive a war with Poland.

It's interesting though. I always liked Makhno. The idea of an anarchist army always strikes me as funny.

 

[Wolfpaw]

Well, I'm not so sure that communication between the various White fronts is really all that necessary in that, so long as they are defeating the Reds on their front and know that the Reds are being defeated on other fronts.

You have a very good point on the Whites lacking a program; in many ways, that was the Whites' greatest detriment. However, the only real program they need for military victory this early is anti-communism. The rest can be hashed out afterwards by Kolchak and Denikin and Yudenich and Wrangel (maybe Miller gets a say in things as well).

I'm not saying that Yudenich will have an easy time of taking Petrograd, but I am pretty certain that he will. I mean, when the whole of the Politburo except for Trotsky is willing to abandon Petrograd, it certainly tells you about the situation in the city since the Reds tended to be more well informed than the Whites.

I agree with you about the Poland issue, but I do believe that there will be a negotiated peace. The only one who was really opposed to it was Denikin. Wrangel and Kolchak were willing to recognize Poland even if they weren't happy about it, and their opinions count for a lot since A) Denikin had officially recognized Kolchak as the supreme commander of all White forces, and B) the majority of Denikin's troops (not necessarily officers, but regular soldiers) were more loyal to their beloved Black Baron than they were to Denikin. Besides, the victorious Whites will know that their main focus will have to be on mopping up the last of the Reds; any adventures in Poland will have to wait until afterwards.

Here's yet another re-post of what I think wold happen in a post-White victory scenario. I'd like to see what you think of it. (It's already got the IBC seal of approval, so I'm confident it isn't all bad )

The Whites win in late-1919-early 1920, something that is very, very plausible. A junta is established between Denikin, Wrangel, Kolchak, and Yudenich. It is decided that Wrangel becomes head of government (probably alongside Milyukov and Pepelyayev) while Denikin and Yudenich are put in charge of the military. Kolchak becomes an élément grise in Russian politics, sort of like a Hindenburg-Ludendorff mix; a figure given deference who sort of stays behind the scenes but is the man to call when "decisive measures" must be taken to reestablish "order."

Meanwhile, the near-universally beloved Grand Duke Nikolai becomes Tsar, though this time he is a constitutional monarch with negligible power at best. This not only satisfies traditionalists and democrats, but also provides the nation with an untainted figurehead that pretty much everybody can rally around.

After an ill-fated Russian experiment with parliamentary democracy à la pre-fascist Italy, Kolchak (at the urging of Grand Duke Cyril who ascends the throne in 1929) finally steps in to reestablish "law and order" and becomes the de facto dictator of Russia. People who present a threat to his new order like Denikin and Kutepov and much of the Army high-command will probably be purged.

Kolchak probably dies some time in the '30s. During and after his reign, movements like Aleksandr Kazem-Bek's Mladorossi gains momentum with its unique and popular (and typically fascist) slogans promoting both industrialization/modernization and traditionalism. Mladorossi or something with a similar name but in the same mold becomes the major (and eventually only) political party in Russia.

The charismatic and handsome Kazem-Bek becomes dictator after Kolchak kicks the bucket. How long his rule lasts is debatable due to his being of Azeri stock, but the major point is that his general philosophy of a social monarchy ("Tsar and the Soviets!") becomes the norm. His most likely successor is Anastasy Vonsyatsky (who may not be bigoted enough), or maybe Konstantin Rodzayevsky.

Ethnicities that will most likely be targeted under the Whites (and I'm assuming we have pre-WWII Soviet borders here) are Jews (of course), Poles, Gypsies, Ukrainians (i.e. people who regard themselves as "Ukrainians" rather than "Little Russians"), Volga Germans, Crimean Karaites, possibly Chinese, perhaps Finns, and maybe Azeris depending on if and how far Kazem-Bek falls. Obviously homosexuals and non-Orthodox will be persecuted, the only exception being Muslims. Also expect a great deal of anti-Western sentiment.

Caucasians and Central Asian tribesmen like Kazakhs and Kalmyks and Buryats and Turkmen will in all likelihood not be targeted for two main reasons; the anti-Bolshevism that the majority of these groups displayed, and the distinct lack of general anti-Russian sentiment amongst them. In fact, the tribesmen will probably join the Cossacks in the pantheon of "martial races" (excellent theory, RGB). Again, the fate of Azeris largely depends on the success or failure of Kazem-Bek.

Interestingly, the concept of "sophisticated secret policemen vs. partisan street thugs" like we see exemplified in the rivalry between the SS and SA already existed in Imperial Russia. The "sophisticated" aspect—the Okhrana—will be reestablished, expanded, and revitalized under the leadership of people like Mikhail Diterikhs. The "street thug" element will lie in the resurrected Yellow Shirts under the command of somebody like Lev Okhotin or Gen. Vladimir Kozmin.

Another thing of note is the viability of Konstantin Rodzayevsky as the successor to basically any post. Head of the Okhrana, head of the Yellow Shirts, even Vozhd (or whatever the head honcho spot is called); Rodzayevsk could potentially succeed to any one (or perhaps even two) of these positions.

Basically, the regime we get is a cross between Iron Guard Romania and Francoist Spain alongside some major elements of clerical fascism.

 

[Abdul Hadi Pasha]

Fascism makes sense, since the Whites were pretty "proto-fascist" - my only question is that socialism wasn't just something that existed in St.P, it was really wide-spread, and the only class that the Whites can counterbalance it with is the peasants, and that would mean redistribution of land, which would be anathema to the capitalist and noble classes that are essential to White success.

It's a pickle. I suppose they try to develop a scheme of limited redistribution with compensation - but the problem is that they need peasant support to win, as well as the gentry's support, and finding a compromise without destroying morale in the middle of a war against a motivated and fanatical enemy is really difficult.

It would be hard to succeed without major outside support, but that in itself is a huge problem as it would make the Whites look like tools of foreigners.

I'm all for Whites Win scenarios, but they're really hard to do, given the huge advantages the Reds held.

 

[Wolfpaw]

You're quite right on all points. Oddly enough, White victory scenarios are very tricky once the actual fighting is over. Go figure, eh?

That being said, we ought to remember your earlier point about how the Whites lacked a coherent program at the time of their best last shot for victory. And while you are certainly correct about the large influence that the landed aristocracy had on the upper echelons of the White movement, we should bear in mind that they were grossly overrepresented in the White leadership; the majority of White soldiers were just anti-communists. Not counting apolitical folks like dragooned peasants and autonomy-seeking tribes, monarchists were a minority.

The political leaders that arise in a post-WV scenario (people like Milyukov, Pepelyayev, Nabokov, etc.) are not going to be for going back to the old ways, so they're going to have a messy time juggling the many political cliques in Russia, which is why I think that a White Russia's democratic experiment won't last very long. I could see the new Duma creating some sort of White NEP to try and sort things out since that really appealed to peasants and much of the middle class. Aristocrats might grumble, but if the peasants on their land are making more money, that means that they can raise rents and such. So long as the rents don't get too high, we might be able to see some sort of equilibrium work out.

Also, when you have people like Wrangel and Kolchak against reimposing aristocratic dominance and restoration of the estates, there's not a whole lot Denikin and his ilk can do. Down the line, I see a sort of 1930s Germany situation occuring where corporatists/fascists/whatever manage to reconcile populist policies with the upper classes.

 

[Hendryk]

There are also huge problems, like Red Russia and Japan, along with the lack of population - but Finland and the Baltics managed to maintain independence with far lesser resources.

What do you think?

I personally addressed the problems faced by an independent eastern Siberia in my TL, by making it a client state of a newly resurgent China.

Since I have a special fondness for the place, I've made sure it receives its share of attention from guest writers. It's the setting of several stories: "Jakutija" by Leo, "The Incident at Saint Andrew's" by Justin Pickard, "Depression of White" by G.Bone, "The Spirit Arc" by Doctor What, and "Smetana's List" by David bar Elias.

 

[Midas]

Would there be any sort of mass "white" exodus over the Urals in the event of something like this happening? I guess mass exodus is unfeasible and a great deal of the population was fairly unsympathetic to the Whites, but assuming they manage to get a more coherent ideology?

Perhaps finding a reason for the Whites to fight together would give them a better shot at this sort of thing .

 

[Lord Roem]

Would there be any sort of mass "white" exodus over the Urals in the event of something like this happening? I guess mass exodus is unfeasible and a great deal of the population was fairly unsympathetic to the Whites, but assuming they manage to get a more coherent ideology?

Perhaps finding a reason for the Whites to fight together would give them a better shot at this sort of thing .

A coherent ideology is a big "if" indeed. The problem with Siberia is that it simply isn't able to support a large population, especially in the early 20th Century. However, given that the region was far more rural than urban, the Bolsheviks were always on the backfoot with regards to ideology. There would have to be a big pull factor to make the White aristocratic émigrés move across the Urals rather than to Paris or London. If one for the more competant Generals, such as Wrangel was able to portay himself as a more unifying figure in Siberia, rather than Ukraine, he could find himself at the head of a unity government, although that is dependent on him being more progressive than he was in OTL.

 

[Abdul Hadi Pasha]

A coherent ideology is a big "if" indeed. The problem with Siberia is that it simply isn't able to support a large population, especially in the early 20th Century. However, given that the region was far more rural than urban, the Bolsheviks were always on the backfoot with regards to ideology. There would have to be a big pull factor to make the White aristocratic émigrés move across the Urals rather than to Paris or London. If one for the more competant Generals, such as Wrangel was able to portay himself as a more unifying figure in Siberia, rather than Ukraine, he could find himself at the head of a unity government, although that is dependent on him being more progressive than he was in OTL.

Siberia can't support a large population, but it could support a largER one. around 1920 the population was about 9.5M, but I think you'd have to subtract the Tobolsk governorate on the eastern slopes of the Urals as indefensible against Russia - so say roughly 8M. There's plenty of room for quite a few more, but there are only so many that can be absorbed without famine. Also, you can't really flee across the Urals, or you end up in tundra - the fertile districts are in a line along the southern border.

In Siberia, I'm not sure its necessary to be progressive - I think competent might suffice.

Anyway, I'm not sure there's much hope for Siberia as an independent state without Japanese propping, which is not impossible. In OTL the Japanese abandoned all the anti-Red forces when it became clear that the Reds would win. An independent Siberian buffer-state was an attractive policy goal, so a successful leader would be likely to attract assistance.

 

[Abdul Hadi Pasha]

I personally addressed the problems faced by an independent eastern Siberia in my TL, by making it a client state of a newly resurgent China.

Since I have a special fondness for the place, I've made sure it receives its share of attention from guest writers. It's the setting of several stories:

I don't understand what happened to all the Russian population - it was overwhelmingly Russian, and there were around 7 million of them at the time of your POD - there would have had to be a genocide to reduce them to only 25% of the population.

 

[B_Munro]

I don't understand what happened to all the Russian population - it was overwhelmingly Russian, and there were around 7 million of them at the time of your POD - there would have had to be a genocide to reduce them to only 25% of the population.

Magic Sinicization.

Could a rump siberian regime also hold onto parts of north Kazakhistan? I'm not sure how far along Slavic settlement of that area was in 1919.

Bruce

 

[Lord Roem]

I don't understand what happened to all the Russian population - it was overwhelmingly Russian, and there were around 7 million of them at the time of your POD - there would have had to be a genocide to reduce them to only 25% of the population.

The thing is though Abdul that the birth rate for Russian Siberians was very low in comparison to the native tribespeople and the Chinese that could move along into the region. There doesn't need to be genocide, just a generation of immigration and natural population growth.

 

[Wolfpaw]

Could a rump siberian regime also hold onto parts of north Kazakhistan? I'm not sure how far along Slavic settlement of that area was in 1919.

There doesn't have to necessarily be a very strong Slavic presence in Kazakhstan to control it. The Cossacks had a large presence there, and they were almost completely die-hard Whites. As for the Kazakhs, they, like most Turkish tribes in general, were similarly unenthusiastic about Bolshevism.

So long as the Whites don't impede too much on Kazakh autonomy, they shouldn't have much trouble holding on to the place.

 

[RGB]

The thing is though Abdul that the birth rate for Russian Siberians was very low in comparison to the native tribespeople and the Chinese that could move along into the region. There doesn't need to be genocide, just a generation of immigration and natural population growth.

The Russian birth rates are low NOW after the Soviets dragged them kicking and screaming into the industrial age, allowed abortion on demand, and managed to lose two entire age cohorts of males to wars and whatnot.

Without that, Russian birthrates could have remained impressive. They were above replenishment until the 1990s, let alone the 1920s. 19th c. growth was phenomenal, given the awful state of agriculture.

I suspect White Siberia would be more like 19th c. Russia than a 1990s Russia.

 

[Tyr]

I don't think a white Siberia would work.
Perhaps a white Far East. Its far enough from all supplies for the reds that it might as well be an island. And its got Japan and others readily available to help.

The best hope for whites I think would be in the Ukraine. They can get all their goods brought in from abroad still...and of course a early independant Ukraine would be cool.

 

[Abdul Hadi Pasha]

The thing is though Abdul that the birth rate for Russian Siberians was very low in comparison to the native tribespeople and the Chinese that could move along into the region. There doesn't need to be genocide, just a generation of immigration and natural population growth.

The birth rate was lower than birthrates in Russia - which implies that this is due to conditions in Siberia, which would apply to the Chinese as well, and as I understand it, it was largely a matter of health care and higher infant mortality. Also, I not sure I believe it's true that the native tribespeople had higher growth - their numbers today are not much higher than they were in the 1897 census. I realize that's due to a lot of reasons, but a lot of populations under pressure have performed better than that.

Even so, you're right that natural population growth an immigration can result in a Russians becoming a minority, but not in a single generation. If there were 7 million Russians, you'd need 20 million newcomers to make them a quarter of the population. I'm not sure Yakut mothers can pump them out that fast, and Siberia can't absorb that many immigrants at once.

The population today is only 36 million, and that's including more territory than this hypothetical state and after Stalin hurled a whole lot of people into Siberia.