White Russian "Taiwan"... in Sakhalin (and Kamchatka?)

In 1920, the last remaining White Russian forces in the western part of the former Russian Empire were evacuated from Crimea after their last line of defense was breached in the narrow Perekop Isthmus.

Known as "Wrangel's Fleet" after its commander, this force consisted of 2 battleships, 2 cruisers, a dozen destroyers, and if we include transports large and small, the total number of ships rises to 126. These carried 145,693 soldiers and civilians, not counting the crews. Many civilians got off in Constantinople, and the rest sailed on to Tunisia, where they languished for 4 years, until France recognized the Soviet Union, and "returned" their ships, which were in such a bad condition at this point that they had to be scrapped.

Also in 1920, the extremely gruesome Nikolayevsk incident took place in the Russian Far East, which prompted a Japanese occupation of northern Sakhalin, which they eventually evacuated in 1926.

On the Siberian mainland, Vladivostok had to be abandoned by the White Russians in September 1921. Anywhere between 100.000 and 200.000 Russians fled to Harbin in Manchuria, but their situation dramatically worsened in 1924 due to the rapprochement between the Chinese and Bolsheviks.

However, let's assume that the French decline to take Wrangel, and he sails east, where Vladivostok is still in White Russian hands. However, as the Japanese announce their withdrawal, the Whites realize that their position on the mainland is untenable. Some flee to Manchuria in China, the rest to Sakhalin.

In June 1923 OTL, the last White Russian forces in the east were defeated in Yakutia. ITTL however, Wrangel, or whoever ends up in charge, continues to dominate northern Sakhalin island. Given their absence of a navy and the high concentration of Whites on the island, the Bolsheviks are unable to dislodge them. Furthermore, given their naval dominance, the White forces would be in a prime position to occupy Kamchatka, and easily keep it supplied and defended in the face of any sort of Bolshevik offensive, given that there were NO ROADS leading there, making any overland advance nigh-impossible. They might even keep the city of Magadan under such conditions (light-pink area). However, at the very least the dark-red bits should be kept.

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https://drive.google.com/open?id=1lj-lfwG8WlnLAz1o-8k8dcWttlIPJBaV&usp=sharing

As the years go by, many of the White Russian emigrees stuck in Manchuria would be able to move to this last haven of non-communist Russia, as would others living in parts of Europe.

How long can they last?
 
Magadan didn't exist by then, just to note. The only viable ports in the northern Okhotsk sea were Okhotsk and Ayan.
Furthermore, in my own Alyaska TL, I toyed with that idea of keeping Kamchatka a White bastion, but I ruled it out as it wasn't much practicable.
The fleet had a cost to maintain and the Allies weren't to support Whites forever; except for the US until 1933, all major powers ended up aknowledging the Soviets out of pragmatism.
Plus, there may be little to no roads, but it's not that impracticable. Though Kamchatka was first reached by sea, further connections were made during 18th century by land. This may be a long game, but one the Whites don't have the means to win as time and resources are on Soviet side here.
Also, for the same reason it's practically an island in logistical terms, White refugees would have a hard time procuring supplies there.
A White state would be entirely up to a major power's goodwill there.
 
what is the development of resources there at the time? they were producing approx. 500k tonnes of oil WWII-era, the real oil is offshore so that's unavailable, IDK can they feed themselves on Sakhalin? there is still huge coal reserves there (were their ships coal-fired?)

Hokkaido is relatively underdeveloped compared to rest of Japan, with their consent (unlikely?) they could farm there too?

very interesting place and time though
 
I don't think Sakhalin is sustainable either, though more so than Petropavlosk area. The straits that keep the island apart from the continent are pretty narrow and much closer to the Transsiberian railroad and the Amur basin; that would even easier for Bolsheviks to build a fleet on the coasts of Priamur and in the Amur basin and cross the straits at multiple points to overwhelm defenders.
 
I don't think Sakhalin is sustainable either, though more so than Petropavlosk area. The straits that keep the island apart from the continent are pretty narrow and much closer to the Transsiberian railroad and the Amur basin; that would even easier for Bolsheviks to build a fleet on the coasts of Priamur and in the Amur basin and cross the straits at multiple points to overwhelm defenders.
Doing opposed landings with nothing other than slow river craft is hard, particularly when lacking fire support, even more so when the opponent has naval superiority. The Bolsheviks could try to attack Sakhalin during the short winter period when the Tartary Strait occasionally freezes over, but then that would bring up another issue, namely supply - during most of the year, they can easily ship supplies down the Amur river. However, in winter, it's not only the strait that freezes, it's the river as well, thus making any kind of continuous supply of artillery difficult. Plus, take a look at how attacking fortified positions whilst crossing frozen bodies of water went in the Winter war against Finland. Such an operation would be extremely hazardous, and if Wrangel's Fleet reaches Sakhalin, then the White Russians should have IMHO a sufficient concentration of troops to beat back any landings, at the very least during the 1920s.
 
There is actually a novel about that, of a title I do not recall and an author I never knew the name of. But Its the Island of Crimea tht has the True Authentic Russia
 
and if Wrangel's Fleet reaches Sakhalin, then the White Russians should have IMHO a sufficient concentration of troops to beat back any landings, at the very least during the 1920s.

Does that hinge on Wrangel actually having a fleet, though? My understanding is that his army was at least primarily evacuated in British ships, or am I mistaken?
 
Doing opposed landings with nothing other than slow river craft is hard, particularly when lacking fire support, even more so when the opponent has naval superiority. The Bolsheviks could try to attack Sakhalin during the short winter period when the Tartary Strait occasionally freezes over, but then that would bring up another issue, namely supply - during most of the year, they can easily ship supplies down the Amur river. However, in winter, it's not only the strait that freezes, it's the river as well, thus making any kind of continuous supply of artillery difficult. Plus, take a look at how attacking fortified positions whilst crossing frozen bodies of water went in the Winter war against Finland. Such an operation would be extremely hazardous, and if Wrangel's Fleet reaches Sakhalin, then the White Russians should have IMHO a sufficient concentration of troops to beat back any landings, at the very least during the 1920s.
In that matter, the experience of the assault on Krondstadt is not to be lost upon. Sakhalin is far closer to the main arteries of transportation, be it the railroad, the orad or the river.
The take you gives may be very well relevant if you take on an assault early on between 1922 and 1924, but my point is that the White position in Sakhalin (and less even in Kamchatka) is unsustainable in the long run without a major power staying involved. They won't have the resources, material or finanial, to resist for many years; they would have to either scrap or sell the ships at one point or another, just to pay for food or even ammunitions. In the same time, the Reds would just have to build up their forces and infrastructures.

You could present Japan with a motive not to evacuate Sakhalin early on (IOTL, they occupied the Russian part until 1925), but Tokyo's ambitions on the mainland would sooner or later push her towards aknowledging USSR legitimacy. The United States withheld recognition until 1933 primarily because of the tsarist and war debt issues, but at this time, the US were getting deeper and deeper into isolationnism; and the bankers then would have probably the hardest time finding a reasonable money to lend to an insolvable client (plus, Kolchak's gold had sunk somewhere in the Baikal lake, even though it would have only meant a few years more of funding if Whites had kept it and would have pushed back the unavoidable). In Europe, both France and the UK had to recognize the USSR for political and trade motives.

Kamchatka and Sakhalin could hold a few years more, but are doomed to fall at some point, in my opinion.
 
There were mountains of war supplies in Vladivostok that had never been shipped to the fighting in WWI, even as late as the withdrawl of the IJA from Vladivostok. Much of this munitions were unstable by that time due to inadequate storage, but other valuable materials (copper and such) could have been evacuated and used to give a modicum of funding to the nascent White Russian enclave on Sakhalin. I think (just my opinion) the other world powers could be convinced to aid the White Russians in keeping Sakhalin. It will be many years, IMO well over a decade before the Bolsheviks can even begin to think about taking the island, particularly if the IJN can be convinced to run interference for them.
 
In that matter, the experience of the assault on Krondstadt is not to be lost upon. Sakhalin is far closer to the main arteries of transportation, be it the railroad, the orad or the river.
The take you gives may be very well relevant if you take on an assault early on between 1922 and 1924, but my point is that the White position in Sakhalin (and less even in Kamchatka) is unsustainable in the long run without a major power staying involved. They won't have the resources, material or finanial, to resist for many years; they would have to either scrap or sell the ships at one point or another, just to pay for food or even ammunitions. In the same time, the Reds would just have to build up their forces and infrastructures.

You could present Japan with a motive not to evacuate Sakhalin early on (IOTL, they occupied the Russian part until 1925), but Tokyo's ambitions on the mainland would sooner or later push her towards aknowledging USSR legitimacy. The United States withheld recognition until 1933 primarily because of the tsarist and war debt issues, but at this time, the US were getting deeper and deeper into isolationnism; and the bankers then would have probably the hardest time finding a reasonable money to lend to an insolvable client (plus, Kolchak's gold had sunk somewhere in the Baikal lake, even though it would have only meant a few years more of funding if Whites had kept it and would have pushed back the unavoidable). In Europe, both France and the UK had to recognize the USSR for political and trade motives.

Kamchatka and Sakhalin could hold a few years more, but are doomed to fall at some point, in my opinion.

If they can hang on till 1931-32, they are in a prime position to make a deal with Japan, who has just occupied Manchuria and is both looking for a way to get rid of the White Russian minority there AND experiencing continuing border clashes with the USSR.
 
There is actually a novel about that, of a title I do not recall and an author I never knew the name of. But Its the Island of Crimea tht has the True Authentic Russia

"Island of Crimea" is the actual title. It's by Vasily Aksyonov and is more a satire of the late soviet USSR than a true alternate history but is still well regarded as something different form the usual run of published AH's.
 
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