White Russian State in Northern Sakhalin

Sakhalin island was divided between Japan and Russia up until World War I, with the Russians in the north and the Japanese in the south. After the Bolshevik revolution, Japan occupied Northern Sakhalin between 1920 and 1925. They gave the island back to the Soviets in return for being allowed a portion of the oil from the oil fields in Northern Sakhalin.

What if the Japanese had established a White Russian puppet state in Northern Sakhalin instead of giving it back? They were under quite a bit of pressure from the US and Europeans to stop meddling in the Soviet Union, but they did have White Russian allies who could have used a base of operations and full access to the oil would have been a help to the oil-starved Japanese, though it would have provided only a fraction of the oil they needed.

A white Russian state in Northern Sakhalin would have been a tough, lonely place. The northern part of the island is subarctic--not a fun place to live. It would have had a small population, probably no more than half a million at most even with the die-hard exiles. The strait between the mainland and the island is narrow. It sometimes freezes over in the winter. The White Russians would have been almost totally dependent on the Japanese for whatever independence the Japanese would have let them have.

So as of the lead-up to World War II, the Japanese have a White Russian puppet state in Northern Sakhalin and access to enough oil to supply in the low double digits of their needs. What, if anything, changes?

My guess: Not much. The White Russians get crushed by the Soviets in August 1945. That's the obvious way to vote. Anyone with a more creative take on what would happen?
 
Sakhalin island was divided between Japan and Russia up until World War I, with the Russians in the north and the Japanese in the south. After the Bolshevik revolution, Japan occupied Northern Sakhalin between 1920 and 1925. They gave the island back to the Soviets in return for being allowed a portion of the oil from the oil fields in Northern Sakhalin.

What if the Japanese had established a White Russian puppet state in Northern Sakhalin instead of giving it back? They were under quite a bit of pressure from the US and Europeans to stop meddling in the Soviet Union, but they did have White Russian allies who could have used a base of operations and full access to the oil would have been a help to the oil-starved Japanese, though it would have provided only a fraction of the oil they needed.

A white Russian state in Northern Sakhalin would have been a tough, lonely place. The northern part of the island is subarctic--not a fun place to live. It would have had a small population, probably no more than half a million at most even with the die-hard exiles. The strait between the mainland and the island is narrow. It sometimes freezes over in the winter. The White Russians would have been almost totally dependent on the Japanese for whatever independence the Japanese would have let them have.

So as of the lead-up to World War II, the Japanese have a White Russian puppet state in Northern Sakhalin and access to enough oil to supply in the low double digits of their needs. What, if anything, changes?

My guess: Not much. The White Russians get crushed by the Soviets in August 1945. That's the obvious way to vote. Anyone with a more creative take on what would happen?
I would instead support a different step. Having Northern Sakhalin under Japanese control would certainly be a boost for national morale, but another area is suited for puppetization.

Map_of_the_Green_Ukraine.jpg


The Green Ukraine would serve the Japanese as an industrial territory, and help bolster their anti-Soviet standing.
 
I doubt they even last to 1945. The island is separated by a very narrow strait, which freezes in winter. Unless Japan is serious about holding it, it will soon be recaptured.
 
Fits in quite well with the Japanese puppet state in Manchuria. Also, Japan had maintained a White Russian puppet state in the Maritime province until late 1922. That could be the source of the White Russians for Sakhalin.

Sakhalin could provide volunteers for a White Russian legion in Manchuria, which could be deployed against Russia's Maritime province in WWII.
 
Fits in quite well with the Japanese puppet state in Manchuria. Also, Japan had maintained a White Russian puppet state in the Maritime province until late 1922. That could be the source of the White Russians for Sakhalin.

Sakhalin could provide volunteers for a White Russian legion in Manchuria, which could be deployed against Russia's Maritime province in WWII.

The number of White Russians available, would be miniscule compared to the size and strength of the Soviet military in the Far East. In fact, such a puppet state would not only be provocative, the Soviets probably will have more forces stationed there. I'd expect that the Whites would be taken out as an adjunct to the Japanese-Soviet battles of Khalkhyn Gol in 1939. Before the Whites would even become a factor in WW2 proper.
 
I doubt they even last to 1945. The island is separated by a very narrow strait, which freezes in winter. Unless Japan is serious about holding it, it will soon be recaptured.

I'm assuming that Japan is serious about holding Northern Sakhalin and stations troops there--as they did in their puppet state in Manchuria. The balance of military power in the far east was strongly in Japan's favor through the 1920s and through about 1932 to 1934, when the Soviet heavy industry build-up and resulting military output began to shift it more and more decisively in the Soviet direction.

If the Soviets were going to attempt to retake Northern Sakhalin before World War II, they probably wouldn't try it before 1935 at the earliest, with 1937 through the summer of 1939 the most likely time--though the Soviet military purges would push the most likely time to late 1938-early 1939.

Someone further down the thread suggests that the Soviets would go in conjunction with Khalkin-Gol in the summer of 1939. That's a fun possibility, but I'll talk about it separately.

This all assumes that the rest of history goes on pretty much as it did historically. There is some chance that the existence of a competing Russian government would influence the struggles within the Soviet government in some way. More likely, it might draw Soviet military investment eastward. Certainly both powers would build up on opposite sides of the strait, which would mean less power available elsewhere. The Soviets would gear up for a winter assault across the ice, but they would also need to build up some naval power to hold open their supply lines when the ice melted. Most likely they would build up a lot of small naval units and a lot of airpower, hoping to deny the Japanese navy access to the strait.

Another possibility: Given the additional hostility due to the puppet regime, the Soviets might intervene when the Japanese tried to take over Manchuria, possibly leading to a Soviet/Japanese war or at least major military clashes in the early 1930s.
 
Well there is that yes :D

Also there is a differance in political willpower - Japan in this scenario has few good reasons to risk war in preservation of a white russian puppet. They could annex the land for less bother really.

Probably true. I'm actually surprised that they didn't annex it, given the oil resources. The only reasons I can think of to keep a White Russian regime would be to give keeping control of the area a fig-leaf of respectability internationally and irritate the Soviets. Neither are very strong reasons, actually, and I'm not going to claim that the White Russian puppet state alternative is likely, though it is fun.
 
There is of course another possibility in that suppose that Japan did not give into Western Pressure from the US and Great Britain in pulling out of Siberia. The Japanese had a size able military force in Siberia. If they had maintained it there is the possibility that they could have maintained a White Russian Buffer state. The Reds would not have had the military strength to take the region back without risking things in the Western part of the Soviet Union.
 
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