White Dawn – Alternative Timeline of Russian Revolution and WW1

"I guess the Banat was split between Romania and Serbia as OTL"

Yes, it is.

The Czech were promised their state in 1915 by France, Britain was colder, Russia was against (Petrograd aimed at their autonomy, not independence). Usa too were favorable to their autonomy (not independence) when the 14 points were published. In OTL the very moment of their recognition came only in April 8th 1918, with the Rome Conference of Oppressed Peoples. And the Czechoslovak national committee was officially recognized by Entente as an allied and independent government on June 6th 1918.
In this ATL war finished in December 1917 and only thanks to a Austro-Hungarian defection. These two Pods change the scenario completely for Czechoslovakia.
 
The new map of the Middle East: peace treaty with the Ottoman Empire

Entente powers began separate negotiations on Ottoman Empire in Versailles, in February 1918, just after the beginning of negotiations on Germany and Austro-Hungarian Empire in Paris. Only two powers contributed militarily to the defeat of the ancient “sick man of Europe”: Great Britain and Russia. David Lloyd George and Alexander Kerenskij, along with their Foreign Ministers Arthur Balfour and Pavel Miljukov, are the real king-makers of that game.

France contributed little to the war effort in the Middle East (just few battleships and few divisions in Gallipoli in 1915 campaign), but she was promised all the Northern half of Fertile Crescent in the Sykes-Picot agreement (May 1916).

The Zionist movement contributed to the war effort in the Middle East, with its all-volunteers Jewish Legion and it was promised the creation of a Jewish National Home in British-held Palestine. The Arabs contributed with their Arab Legions, in July 1917 they conquered Aqaba and they were promised the independence of Hijaz and formal sovereignty of all the Fertile Crescent, after a period of Anglo-French administration.

Greece contributed little to the war effort (only in the last six months), but she was promised large territorial gains in Anatolia and European Turkey: Western and Eastern Thrace, Smyrna and the islands of North Aegean Sea.

Italy didn’t contribute at all to the war effort, but she was promised large regions in Southern Anatolia, in the Maurienne agreements. Maurienne was signed, but not perfected. Its clauses included also Russian approval. But Kerenskij’s government didn’t sign it and didn’t want.

Russian government is divided on this issue. Kerenskij wanted the end of all Empires and self-determination for all. These are the guiding principles proclaimed in March 1917 and sanctioned by the All Russian Constituent Assembly in January 1918. But Pavel Miljukov wanted the Russian annexation of Constantinople and the Straits, as stated in 1914 Entente agreements.

United States didn’t participate to negotiations, because they never declared war to the Ottoman Empire. Wilson gave an external support to Kerenskij, because of ideological sympathy.
Great Britain’s aims are just a bit similar to Russia’s. David Lloyd George expressed a strong stance for an independent Turkey in Anatolia, an independent Armenia in Eastern Anatolia and Caucasus, the Greek annexation of Greek speaking regions in Western Anatolia (Smyrna and Northern islands), a large and independent Arab State in the Fertile Crescent (actual Syria, Jordan and Western Iraq), a British administered Iraq, an independent Jewish Palestine, and an independent second Arab Kingdom in Hijaz. Lloyd George thrashed the Sykes-Picot and Maurienne agreements, because “facts on the ground” changed in 1916-1917, there are only British and Russian troops in the Middle Eastern theatre of war and both powers now rejected those agreements. The main principle is self-determination, sometimes externally (more or less provisionally) administered.

Inside the Russian government Kerenskij stance prevailed on Miljukov’s, because of Wilson and Lloyd George’s support. And because Russian troops could no longer occupy vast portions of the former Ottoman Empire.

Of course, the Russian and British plan for a new Middle East was a major shock for all the other Entente powers. But the balance of forces prevailed in the end. With their troops entrenched all over Fertile Crescent and Mesopotamia, Great Britain and Russia could dictate their wishes and make few concessions to the other allies. It was not an easy task, indeed. Both France and Italy leaved the negotiations. Italian government fell and was reshuffled because of public indignation. Both obtained some compensations in other theaters of negotiations. Clemanceau obtained the Rhine frontier and the creation of a new Rhinland Republic, before accepting the new Middle East settlement. Italian new premier, Vittorio Emanuele Orlando, obtained Fiume, the recognition of its protectorate over Albania and full sovereignty over Dodecanneso islands.

Given those concessions, all Entente powers signed the Versailles Treaty, which was imposed to the new Sultan Mehemet VI in November 1918:
1. The Ottoman Empire is officially dissolved
2. An independent Sultanate of Turkey (ruled by Mehemet VI) is established in Anatolia and European Turkey
3. The Straits become international waters, open to all military and merchant navies
4. An Entente Occupation Force has to occupy Constantinople and the Straits for two years (until June 1920)
5. Mehemet VI and his heirs keep the Caliphate
6. Turkish can keep only a self-defense army (50.000 men strong) and a self-defense navy (no more than 25 units, no cruisers, no battleships and no submarines: only corvettes, frigates and destroyers)
7. Greek speaking Smyrna and its hinterlands are annexed to Greece
8. All the Armenian speaking regions in Eastern Anatolia become independent and merge with Russian Armenia to form a new Armenian Republic. Both Petrograd and Constantinople have to recognize the independence of the new Nation.
9. All the Kurdish speaking regions in Eastern Anatolia, Syria and Mesopotamia become an independent Kurdish Republic.
10. The rest of (non-Kurdish) Mesopotamia is annexed to British India and becomes its protectorate, named Iraq
11. All the Fertile Crescent becomes an independent Arab State, ruled by Feisal al Hashemi, under British provisional protection; after a period of transition it will become an autonomous British Dominion (with the same rights of Canada, Australia, New Zealand…)
12. The Great Lebanon (Mount Lebanon and Litani River included) becomes a French protectorate
13. The entire Palestine (Jerusalem included) from Jordan to the Mediterranean sea, becomes a Jewish National Home under British provisional protection; the future Jewish State will be a British Dominion.
14. The Hijaz becomes an independent Kingdom, ruled by King Hussein al Hashemi

Below: the map of the Middle East in 1918 after Versailles Treaty. (JNH means Jewish National Home, L means Lebanon)

MiddleEast1918.jpg
 
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IT LIVES!

Good to see an update.

A super arab state might make things hard for israel down the line, if the situation is at all like IOTL.

How long are you thinking of taking this time line out till? The 40s?
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
Donor
Will Ataturk rise and reverse this treaty?

Uber- Armenia looks a lot like Wilsonian Armenia, which was a pipe dream since it contained areas where the Armenians hadn't been a majority since the 1500s, let alone had any possibility to claim them after Forbidden Forum Topic. (Russia giving up land smells ASB too, unless Armenia becomes a de facto Russian puppet).

A stable Kurdish state will be nearly ASB, since there was not much binding the Kurdish Clans together, and inter- clan conflicts were not unusual, and no clan wanted to be ruled by another.
 
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Irak being part of British India is very, very odd. Remember that Ceylon wasn't.... (although, admittedly Burma sometimes was - Burma is at least contiguous to India).
 
The borders for the Jewish national home are implausible and unsustainable with this POD, let alone the notion that the Russians go along with the idea.
 
The League of Nations

Wilson pressed for the constitution of a League of Nations since the beginning of the Peace Treaty’s negotiations. The idea of a “parliament of nations” was dominant in the Entente since the beginning of the Great War. Liberal intellectuals in France and Russia prescribed it as a useful tool to avoid future large scale conflicts and settle disputes with democratic methods. When Wilson introduced to negotiators a complete project of a League of Nations, the other powers were ready to receive the offer. But not without some scepticism and resistance. Among the victors, the most enthusiast supporter of the project was the Russian Pm Alexander Kerenskij. British Pm David Lloyd George was much more sceptical. He supported a new World order based on the British Empire. A League of Nations was just a redundant juxtaposition. He didn’t oppose it in principle. He just questioned its usefulness and pressed to limit its executive powers. French Pm Clemanceau opposed the project and favoured a different international organism: a Council of Victors, formed by the major Entente powers.
France was the main obstacle in the negotiations. Thanks to Lloyd George’s mediation, Clemanceau accepted a compromise: the League of Nations had to be established but it had no sovereignty nor rights to limits other else’s sovereignty, it had no army nor police, it had to consult a newly established Council (formed by the big six: Usa, Great Britain, France, Italy, Russia and Japan) before emitting executive resolutions.
Under pressure of United States, France and Russia, the principle of national representations was approved. By this principle, not only the States, but any Nation inside them could be represented inside the League of Nation’s Assembly. Then, there was not only one representative for Austria-Hungary, but 4 representatives: one for Austria, one for Hungary, one for Slovenia, one for Czechia. Hungarian minorities in Rumania can send their representative. There was a large team of 10 representatives for Russian Federation (Finland, Estonia, Curland, Lithuania, Belarus, Ukraine, Georgia, Azerbaidjan, Turkestan and, of course, Russia). Every Dominion inside the British Empire is represented.
National representatives were free to vote against the interests of the dominant power. And they were granted full diplomatic status. The League of Nations assured the protection of their nationalities from eventual military reprisals at home.
On July 4th 1918, the League of Nations was formed in New York. It was ratified by the Us Congress (led by a Democratic majority) two days later. On July 28th the new international “parliament” ratified its first act, approving the Peace Treaty.
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
Donor
But, but, the LoN was the Beast of the Apocalypse that had arrived to trick true Christians into breaking with God, and thus be left on Earth when the Rapture comes. Surely the US can't join the Devil.:rolleyes:

And Uber- Armenia is still a pipe dream due to the lack of an Areminan majority in many cases and Forbidden Forum Topic.
 
Uh, this was a crushing defeat for the Central Powers... See soon a commie revolution in Germany and AH? :eek:
And the Entente states became very strong... will they manage to keep the balance or soon their divergences bring towards to another WW?
One last thing... in the end the Russian bear shall prevail :D
 
Post-War conflicts: Slovakia and Croatia 1918-1919

The peace treaty with Austro-Hungarian Empire was signed in Paris on July 28th 1918. Four years after Austrian declaration of war against Serbia. The Peace Treaty provided the Empire’s minorities with full rights of self-government. This was not a problem for Vienna. This was a problem for Budapest.
Since December 1917, all nationalities under Austrian rule have had already gained their full autonomy and elected their parliaments. In May 1918, while Western and Eastern Galicia voted their annexation to Poland and Russian Federation respectively, general elections were held in Czech, Austrian and Slovene new autonomous regions. Croatia and Slovakia, under Budapest rule, had no right to vote their representatives. Hungarian government didn’t grant them any right of self-government. The vote in May provided a casus belli for autonomists in Croatia and Slovakia, but the simultaneous plebiscite in Transylvania (which caused the separation of 1/3 of Hungarian territory, annexed by Rumania) ingnited fierce nationalism in Hungary. In June, both Croatia and Slovakia held their unauthorized elections, won by the Croat Agrarian Party and the Slovak Popular Party respectively. Budapest’s government, led by former admiral Horty, couldn’t oppose the separation of Transylvania. He had no forces to oppose the Entente’s conditions. But Croatia and Slovakia were considered as an “internal problem”. Then, the admiral asked the Emperor to send the army to solve the problem, dissolving the two unauthorized parliaments. But Emperor Karl I refused the authorization of the use of military force. The army remained in the barracks, while Hungarian nationalists and some mutinied military unit began to take up arms on their own.
By the end of August and early September, Hungarian nationalists began to raid Slovaks and Croatian villages. Members and leaders of Croatian and Slovak autonomist parties were also killed by gang of nationalists and single terrorists, also in Zagreb and Bratislava. Despite the Imperial Police efforts, the low intensity conflict began to escalate in October, when Croatian and Slovak nationalists began to take up arms. Slovaks nationalists were helped by Czech autonomous police and, since November, they began to receive weapons and training from Russian and Rumanian troops. Croatian nationalists were strongly supported by the Serbian army. In December, the first serious clashes erupted, fought by irregular armies, in Vojvodina, Eastern Slavonia and all over Slovakia. The war in Croatia began to escalate also in the Western regions, against Italy. Armed Croatian nationalists began to attack Italian citizens and troops in the hinterlands of Fiume, Pola and Zara. Italian army retaliated with bloody raids against militants and civilians.
On December 15th, the League of Nations officially recognized the autonomy of Croatia and Slovakia, credited their representatives to the Assembly and intimated a stop in Hungarian nationalist’s violences and asked Italy to stop any military operation in Dalmatia and Istria. In order to calm down the ongoing escalation, Karl I ordered a full mobilization of the Imperial Army and imposed the martial law all over the Empire. Eminent Hungarian nationalists were arrested in Budapest, the most powerful militias disbanded after harsh fights. After the defeat of Hungarian nationalists, most Slovak and Croats militias spontaneously stopped their activity. The more aggressive and nationalist Croats militias were destroyed by the Imperial Army. By the Spring of 1919, the Austro-Hungarian civil war was over. Only terrorism, conducted by nationalist fanatic minorities, remained a problem for decades.

AH_clashes.png
 
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Ethnic violence in the Balkans and Transylvania

Bosnia Uprising

The peace treaty with Austro-Hungarian Empire assigned the Bosnia-Hercegovina protectorate to Serbia. Immediately after the war, Serbia and Montenegro merged in a unified Federation, led by Serbian monarchy. Bosnia-Hercegovina became the third component of that Federation. This settlement was accepted by the majority of Serbian population of East Bosnia and by the Croat majority of Hercegovina (who wanted also a unified state with an independent Croatia). But immediately after the peace settlement was signed in Paris, the Muslim majority of Bosnia rebelled against the Serbian army, seen as a Christian occupation army. Belgrade retaliated with a ruthless military repression and ethnic cleansing in some areas. While the League of Nations was turning the blind eye: it didn’t want to condemn and act against an Entente power.
By the end of the year, Bosnia was “pacified” completely.

Transylvania Ethnic Violence

In August 1918, when violence began to spread from Hungary to Eastern Croatian regions, Hungarian nationalists began to give arms also to their “brothers” under Rumanian rule in Transylvania. Ethnic violence against Rumanian troops and civilians began to spread in September. Pressed by Russia through the League of Nations, Bucharest government retaliated with less repression and more incentives for local Hungarian citizens: they were granted full political rights, linguistic autonomy and a special autonomous status for their districts. Ethnic violence and terrorism never escalated to the level of a civil war. It calmed down in two-three years, but terrorism remained a problem for the following decades.
 
Greek-Russian-Turkish War

The worst post-war conflict erupted in the former Ottoman Empire. It was fought for the future of Turkey and it was the only post-war conflict which involved foreign powers. Just before the Versailles Treaty (with Turkey) was signed, in November 1918 a Greek occupation army landed in Smyrna taking the control of the city and its hinterlands. This was too much a humiliation for Turkish nationalists and they started an insurrection against the Greeks. In the beginning of December, Greek Pm Venizelos ordered the deployment of an entire regular Army in Smyrna. The Nationalist uprising is crushed and its irregular troops pushed East. Given the absence of any reaction by the Sultan in Constantinople, a National Assembly was formed by nationalists in Ankara. They were led by the former general Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, hero of Gallipoli and former commander of Yilderim Army Group during the 1917 campaign. Despite the lack of weapons and equipment and a complete political isolation, Ataturk began to re-organize a Nationalist Army using the Yung Turk’s secret web of basis in Anatolia, organized during the war for a possible last stand. In March 1919, Ataturk launched a successful offensive against the Greeks in Konya. Minor fights erupted in East Anatolia, between Turkish nationalists on one side and the new Armenian and Kurdish armies on the other. Fearing a defeat, Venizelos asked help to Russia. Both Russia and Great Britain pressed the League of Nations for the authorization of the use of force against Ankara. The League of Nations gave carte blanche to Russia, Greece and Armenian Republics on April 24th, the day remembered by the Armenians as the beginning of their genocide. On April 25th, the Russo-Armenian army, led by Russian general Yudenic, crossed the border. On May the 1st, the Greek army began to counter-attack from the West. Caught inside this two-pronged assault, Ataturk’s army began quickly to disintegrate. By the end of June 1919, the Russo-Armenian army was at the gates of Ankara, where Ataturk personally was leading the defenders. After two months of siege, Ankara fell at the benginning of August 1919. The Turkish war was over. But terrorism, conducted by extreme Turkish nationalists, remained a main problem for the recognized Turkish government in Constantinople, for the Greeks, the Armenians, and the Russians.
 
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