White Dawn – Alternative Timeline of Russian Revolution and WW1

[giobastia]

@cbr: no, in this case you're wrong. Because Great Britain and France never wanted a dissolution of the Empire until 1918. This is demonstrated clearly by the real negotiations made by Sixte in France in OTL March-May 1917. France could have agreed on a separate peace with A-H, also without territorial losses. The only conditions for peace-agreements were Austrian recognition of a French Alsace-Lorraine, Belgium independence, Serbia independence (giving it an outlet to the Adriatic Sea) and recognition of Russian aspirations over Constantinople. These are the French conditions, David Lloyd George was informed about them and agreed. Russia didn't oppose them, because the main interest was Constantinople, not A-H territories. Rumania was just too weak to protest. Italy vetoed the agreements on the basis of the London Treaty and this was the main obstacle. Then: give Italy her Italian-speaking lands and the problem is solved. But all the negotiations failed because of Germany. A-H feared Germany more then anything else.
This is OTL, not ATL.
Then: if Entente powers would have accepted a separate peace at this mild condition, why you're so sure that a lesser mild negotiated peace with Austria-Hungary is impossible?

 

[cbr]

@cbr: no, in this case you're wrong. Because Great Britain and France never wanted a dissolution of the Empire until 1918. This is demonstrated clearly by the real negotiations made by Sixte in France in OTL March-May 1917. France could have agreed on a separate peace with A-H, also without territorial losses. The only conditions for peace-agreements were Austrian recognition of a French Alsace-Lorraine, Belgium independence, Serbia independence (giving it an outlet to the Adriatic Sea) and recognition of Russian aspirations over Constantinople. These are the French conditions, David Lloyd George was informed about them and agreed. Russia didn't oppose them, because the main interest was Constantinople, not A-H territories. Rumania was just too weak to protest. Italy vetoed the agreements on the basis of the London Treaty and this was the main obstacle. Then: give Italy her Italian-speaking lands and the problem is solved. But all the negotiations failed because of Germany. A-H feared Germany more then anything else.
This is OTL, not ATL.
Then: if Entente powers would have accepted a separate peace at this mild condition, why you're so sure that a lesser mild negotiated peace with Austria-Hungary is impossible?

Perhaps because by november 1917 the communists were already in power in Russia and withdraw from the war and also forced Romania to make peace with the CP because of it also.

Here, Russia is still in the war with a stabilized front and the communists routed and a clear sign that the CP will lose since they failed to remove Russia, no break in the italian lines AND a british fleet in the baltic cuting off iron shipments from Sweden. The situation is looking a lot better everywhere, so why would they accept the absurd conditions you suggested?

Also in the TL it's already mid november 1917, about 2 months away from Wilson's 14 points speech, not may 1917, the situation is nowhere near the same so your argument that because it happened in the spring the same hold true now is fallacious.

EDIT: It seems to me that you are equaling OTL talks in early 1917 with ATL talks in late 1917 in a completely changed strategic and tactical situation. Also you didn't answer how exactly you plan on having "different" nations appear, or more to the point who will be the people living in them that weren't there OTL to have a state. Also you didn't seem to have an answer for the hungarian or croatian nationalism, are you handwaving them away?

I like this TL because you actually managed to keep it somewhat realistic, but with your last post and the intentions you made known you've taken a severe turn into left field.

 

[giobastia]

I'm sorry for having deluded you, but not all people has the same views/studies/ideas on History.
But now I'm curious: how do you want to develop this ATL starting from November 15th?
Of course this is a debate, not a textbook, we are here to discuss.

 

[cbr]

I'm sorry for having deluded you, but not all people has the same views/studies/ideas on History.
But now I'm curious: how do you want to develop this ATL starting from November 15th?
Of course this is a debate, not a textbook, we are here to discuss.

Hmm, that's an interesting question, as I've already said I think at this point in the TL it's impossible to stop an AH collapse, but I think a Balkans without Yugoslavia would be interesting, so I'd create an independent Kingdom of Croatia.

Hungary, Bulgaria and Turkey would go the same way as OTL, nothing major changed for them.

Austria... since AH agreed to surrender earlier, a claim could be made that the Habsburgs might be allowed to retain power and Austria could be transformed into some type of constitutional monarchy. I'm not sure if Karl would be allowed to retain the throne or forced to let Otto(when he was old enough) and a regency take place before that.

For the czechs... like I said I'm unsure how unified the czech and slovak nationalistic movements were and if a united country was what they wanted or if it was what the Entente wanted, to have a bigger stonger nation that could fight hungarian irredentism.

Poland would be interesting... since the communist failed to take power, it's unclear if Poland would be able to regain it's territory from that side of the border, so the allies might try to give them more of Germany and AH, would it be to much to have Poland annex eastern Prussia?

But since this is a mostly Russia centric story, the most interesting questions would be what happens to the independence movements in Russia. What happens to Finland for example?

 

[giobastia]

Ok, you have to wait some time and see the developments of this timeline. But the focus point, in this phase of the ATL, is Austro-Hungarian Empire in November 1917, after a failed Caporetto and a failed October Revolution, when Karl realizes that he has no choice but a separate peace, even without the consent of Germany. In this case, Austrian diplomacy would try to exit war, keeping as many territories as possible. Entente interest is just the opposite. But: the Entente has to compensate the Austro-Hungarian defection, in one way or another, in order to encourage her betrayal of the German ally. Even Italy, in 1943, was compensated with relatively few territorial losses and territorial integrity, bacause of its defection. The only possible alternative is: no negotiations, no separate peace and a prolonged war inside A-H territory until its unconditional surrender.

 

[cbr]

Entente interest is just the opposite. But: the Entente has to compensate the Austro-Hungarian defection, in one way or another, in order to encourage her betrayal of the German ally. Even Italy, in 1943, was compensated with relatively few territorial losses and territorial integrity, bacause of its defection. The only possible alternative is: no negotiations, no separate peace and a prolonged war inside A-H territory until its unconditional surrender.

The Entente also have to give their allies what was promised to them, that is if you ever want them to have allies in any future conflict. You can't just wave away french and british commitements just because they don't suit you. In a world with an Entente win, their allies will always have priority over the lossers, which is my point. There are only so much the Entente will agree to to have AH withdraw from the war.

I've noticed this same faulty logic at some other members of this forum with regard to fascist Italy, they argue that the western allies in general and the british in particular would give Mussolini whatever outrageous he makes just to keep Italy neutral and proceed from there to create an inane Italy wank, completely disregarding OTL facts.

Also the reason in 1943 Italy only lost the african empire was for multiple reasons:

1. Nobody wanted or needed any territory from them. This wasn't 1500s anymore where you can annex any piece of land regardless of who lives there.

2. The western allies needed Italy to be a functioning pro-western state at the end, to stand against the Soviet Union.

 

[giobastia]

Don't worry, I'm coming with new peace terms. And our conversation could be taken as a simulation of a real peace negotiation during wartime

 

[yourworstnightmare]

Hmm, we will probably not see Finnish, Polish and Baltic independence in this TL. Could cause a lot of problems, especially in Poland. Expect a Polish revolt shortly after the war.

 

[giobastia]

Austria-Hungary calls for peace (redux)

After the British naval incursion in the Baltic, the loss of Trieste and the failure of the “Russian Commune” (i.e.: the last opportunity for a Russian collapse), Central Powers have to reconsider their strategy in a much more unfavourable strategic condition. They war will continue in 1918, that’s for sure. Americans will arrive, with millions of new soldiers, in France. The new convoy system in the Atlantic (and a higher deployable number of destroyers, after the defeat of German High Sea Fleet) proved decisive, the Entente’s losses decreases. There is no more possibility to defeat Great Britain for starvation.
The German OHL begins a huge analysis of the situation in order to decide the next strategy for Spring 1918. General Hoffman (OberOst) suggest a new offensive in the East and a defensive strategy in the West. This general strategy aim at consolidating the territorial gains in Russia and repel a new Entente’s offensive in the West, reach a new stalemate and a negotiate peace. General Mackensen suggests a new offensive in the South, aiming at expelling Entente’s forces from Greece and achieve a decisive victory there. He too aims at a negotiated peace after a new victory. Ludendorff insists in his strategic concept. Russians are already back on track and they have more chances to launch a new offensive next Spring. But they are not an immediate danger. Then, he prefers to launch a new powerful offensive in France in order to prevent the massive deployment of American forces there. In all this debate, the Kaiser remained in his silence.
Austro-Hungarian command quits this debate. Emperor Karl doesn’t want to plan a new campaign for Spring 1918, because he wants to reach an agreement with the Entente before Christmas, even without the German consent. This is Karl’s intention since his coronation in 1916, he tried a first secret negotiation (peace agreement without territorial losses) in March-May 1917 with the French president Poincaré. Then, after the failure of this first secret negotiation, he assisted with much pain to the surrender and defection of entire Czechoslovak units in Galicia, during the Kerenskij’s offensive of July: this is a first sensible symptom of disintegration of the Empire. After the defeat of Caporetto and the loss of Trieste, the main Austrian harbour, emperor Karl decided to resume peace negotiations with Entente. He’s sure that only a quick exit from the conflict will allow him to keep the Empire alive. After the shocking experiences of the Russian February Revolution and the Russian Commune, he believes that a continuation of war is no longer possible, because: “The peoples will rise and sign a peace over our heads if we continue this unuseful struggle. Then we can lose everything we’ve fought for, along with the basis of our civilization”. He can hope in a reasonable compromise peace with Entente, because his troops: 1) occupy all the Rumanian territory (Moldova included, after the October’s offensive) 2) occupy parts of Western Russia 3) occupy all the Serbian territory 4) despite the loss of Trieste, A-H troops occupy part of Veneto since the 1916 offensive in Trentino. The Austro-Hungarian Empire relies in a strong military position, then the Entente has to offer her reasonable conditions for a separate peace with it.

November 16th: Prince Sixte of Bourbon-Parma sends an autographic letter of Emperor Karl I to the French president Raymond Poincaré. The French head of state calls for consultations the new Prime Minister Georges Clemanceau, who is a strong Radical Republican and hates the Austro-Hungarian Empire as a symbol of reaction in Europe. He recognizes the strategic importance of an Austro-Hungarian defection, which could be decisive in this phase of the conflict, but he can’t betray the national aspirations of the allies. Then Poincaré sends many copies of Karl’s offer to King Albert and Pm Charles de Broquevill of Belgium, King Vittorio Emanuele III and Pm Paolo Boselli of Italy, King Peter I and Pm Nikola Pasic of Serbia, Pm Alexander Kerenskij of Russia, King Ferdinand of Romania, King George V and Pm David Lloyd George of United Kingdom. A copy was sent also to Us President Woodrow Wilson, who is not at war with Austria-Hungary, but, as an ally has the right to know an important issue like that. Peripheral allies, not interested to Austro-Hungarian territories, like Portugal and Greece, are not informed.

November 17th: Woodrow Wilson gives his first answer, underlying the principle of self-determinations of peoples. His is just a suggestion, because he is not at war with Austria-Hungary. He asked for two alternative solutions: full independence for all nationalities inside the Empire or a federal reform of the latter. Local referenda would determine the fate of nationalities, if they want to stay inside the double monarchy or become independent nations. In Italy, Foreign Minister Sidney Sonnino rejected those principles. Italian army already occupies Trieste, then he asks for the full implementation of the London Treaty, without exceptions. Rumania also claims Bukovina and Transylvania. But Alexander Kerenskij is very favourable to Wilson’s proposal. Basically he shares the same ideals and the Russian Provisional Government has already published the Declaration of War Aims (March 1917) in which it proclaimed a “peace without annexations nor compensations” and a full respect for national self-determination. Russian Directorate and Rumanian King Ferdinand (protected by Russian government in Odessa) reach an agreement by the end of the day on post-war territorial settlement: Transylvania and Bukovina’s destiny has to be decided by local referenda. King Ferdinand is sure that those referenda will be won by Rumanian large majorities, then he accepts the agreement.

November 18th: When all the allied leaders answered with their own conditions, Poincaré dictates the Entente conditions to Prince Sixte. They included:
Immediate conditions: cease-fire, demobilization of Army and Navy, retreat from all the occupied territories of Italy, Russia, Romania, Serbia and Montenegro; restoration of Romania and Serbia’s independence; access of facilities, harbours, roads and railways for all Entente forces until the end of the war with Germany.
Post-war conditions: after the end of the war Vienna has to surrender to Italy Trento, Gorizia, Trieste, Istria and part of Dalmatia (Zara and Sebenico with hinterlands and islands); Vienna has also to surrender to Serbia Bosnia-Hercegovina, plus an outlet to the Adriatic Sea; the Austro-Hungarian government has to organize local referenda for the future of Rumanian peoples of Transylvania and Bukovina, of Ukrainian people of East Galicia, of Polish people of West Galicia, promising to respect their self-determination; beyond its territory, the Austro-Hungarian Empire has to recognize the restoration of Belgian independence, French sovereignty over Alsace and Lorraine.
In case of rejection of all those conditions, the war will continue until the unconditional surrender of the Empire.

November 19th: Karl I receives the answer and he can’t give an answer. He calls a governmental summit and a long and hard debate begins. News from the Western front will interrupt it suddenly...


To be continued...

 

[giobastia]

No reply? Wow! We found the right solution.

 

[Van555]

Keep going looking good!

 

[cbr]

No reply? Wow! We found the right solution.

OK, so everybody gets what they were promised more or less, I still don't see how at this moment hungarian and croatian nationalism won't rip the empire apart. How are you going to keep it together? Some form of federated state with Karl the monarch in all three?

 

[mikegold]

OK, so everybody gets what they were promised more or less, I still don't see how at this moment hungarian and croatian nationalism won't rip the empire apart. How are you going to keep it together? Some form of federated state with Karl the monarch in all three?

Who says he's going to keep it together? Karl thinks he's getting that sort of deal, the Allies may even be offering it; but events on the ground will decide the fate of the monarchy.

There will be refereda, and I'm willing to bet that the Czechs, especially, will want independence (in what borders though, I wonder?)
Hungary and Austria will likely split, and while Hungary may have some interest in maintaining the monarchy I think they're done with personal union. Cadet branch?
Croatia will likely either go independent or, if fate is cruel, go to the Serbs as IOTL. Slovenia may elect to stay with Austria. So may parts of the Sudetenland.

Those are a few thoughts... A remnant Danubian monarchy in Austria, Bohemia, Hungary and Croatia is a romantic idea and might well serve to stabilize Europe post-war. But, I think it's too late for that... really, after Lemberg the writing was on the wall.

 

[giobastia]

The Black Day of the German Army

On the Western front, the British Tank Corps have already proposed a limited raid against St. Quentin in August 1917, during the Passchandaele offensive (Flanders). This plan was vetoed by general Haig (commander in chief of the BEF) because all the reserves were needed in the Flanders. The plan was resumed in October, when the offensive in the Flanders was already almost ended in a desperate stalemate. Aiming at a decisive victory in the West before Winter, the original plan was amplified. It was no more a single “raid” with tanks and cavalry, but a general offensive involving the entire British Third Army. The first target assigned to general Byng (commander of the Third Army) was Cambrai. Once taken the city, Byng had to outmanoeuvre the German pockets South to Sensée river and West to Canal du Nord. The final target was the city of Valenciennes, a fundamental logistical base for Germans. This manoeuvre aimed at breaking the Hindemburg Line (the new German fortified lines on the Western front) and force an enemy’s general retreat.
After the great British naval victory of Skagerrak (October 17th) and the British incursion in the Baltic, morale of British command rose considerably. After Skagerrak the idea of a decisive victory in a land battle, as well as in a sea battle, became more concrete. It was also a question of competition. The Army had to demonstrate her value after the victory of the Navy. More and more troops and materiel were deployed for the Cambrai offensive. After the Italian victory in Caporetto, five British divisions (5th, 7th, 23rd, 41st and 48th), ready to be sent on the Italian front, were re-deployed in Cambrai’s sector.
On November 19th, this was the British order of battle: III Corps (6th, 12th, 20th, 29th divisions), IV Corps (36th, 40th, 51st, 56th, 62nd divisions), VII Corps (21st, 55th divisions), ready to attack the Hindemburg Line along with 381 tanks and more than 2000 guns. In reserve, ready to exploit an eventual breakthrough, Byng deployed the Cavalry Corps (1st, 2nd, 4th and 5th divisions), the VI Corps (3rd, 47th, 59th, Guards Division) and the newly formed XIV Corps (5th, 7th, 23rd, 41st and 48th divisions).


November 20th: at 6,20am, more then 2000 British and French guns open fire on the German lines, taking them by surprise. After a quick and powerful artillery preparation, which destroyed German morale and coordination, three brigades of tanks attack the first line of trenches and break it. On the extreme left of the British line, the 51st division is stopped by German fierce resistance and it can’t occupy Flesquières. The 12th division, despite the enemy’s hard resistance, can break the two German lines and reach its first target in Lateau Wood. The 20th division breaks the front more easily and reach its targets: Mesnières and Marcoing with their bridges on Canal du St. Quentin. The 62nd division also breaks easily German lines and can reach Anneaux, beyond Flesquières, encircling German defenders there. The breach in the Hindemburg line was large enough to allow the advance of the two cavalry divisions of Kavanagh and the 5th, 7th and 23rd infantry divisions before the night. The Guards Division and 3rd division, joining the 51st and the 62nd divisions, dislodge the German defenders from Bourlon Wood. In the same time, supported by infantry, the Cavalry Corps assaults the German last, incomplete line in front of Cambrai. A cavalry’s dismounted charge dislodges the Germans from their weak positions. At 8pm, a squadron of Canadian Fort Garry Horse enters Cambrai, greeted by the French population. The German morale collapses. Many units, encircled and heavily attacked, surrender massively. Before the end of the day, British have captured more than 20.000 prisoners.
General Von Marwitz, commander of the German Second Army has no more chances to fill the gap opened inside his lines. He realizes quickly that a disaster, comparable to the Marne, is displaying before his eyes, in his sector of the front. General Rupprecht, commander of the Army Group North, suggested a general retreat from the Lille-La Bassée-Lens salient, which is now exposed to encirclement. Ludendorff is shocked by the impressive number of prisoners taken by British in just one day. He too realizes that there are no more chance to fill the gap using the reserves of the Second Army, then he authorizes a general retreat from the salient.


below: the plan for Cambrai (the blue triangle) and the potential direction for a further advance

 

[Patukov]

Very good,now...it´s only the Russians hold

 

[yourworstnightmare]

Hmm, I have had a feeling that in the end even the Provisional Government would have to capitulate. Russia was in such bad shape that there was just no way for it to hold.

But this TL could be interesting. A much more problematic Eastern Europe with an unsolved Polish question, awakening nationalism in Finland and the Balticum, and probably a strong pan- slavic alliance between Russia and Yugoslavia. Although I have a feeling Russia would not remain a democracy. The left would be too hard to control and the ethnic groups on the outer fringes of the Republic would cause continuous problems. A military coup at some point would be inevitable.

 

[simonbp]

Well, you already have an "emergency government"; who's to say it has to dissolved at the end of the war?

 

[yourworstnightmare]

Also, the Austrians would have had to release a Czech nation, that was already promised to the Czechs in 1915.

 

[keedaman]

This TL is too awesome to not get bumped.

 

[giobastia]

Dear readers, I'm so sorry for this long pause of vacations/meditations/studies.

I will post other parts soonest possible!