White Dawn – Alternative Timeline of Russian Revolution and WW1

@Abdul Hadi Pasha: sorry but... what is St.P? Is it Petrograd? If yes, of course, Petrograd and Moscow garrisons were very pro-Bolshevik. Bolsheviks have some support also in Ekaterinburg, Samara, Lugansk, Kazan, Rostov and Saratov.
But, take note of the differences between the OTL and this ATL. Until now we have:
1. a different development of Kornilov affaire: in OTL Kornilov and Kerenskij were at odds, Kornilov attempted a coup and was arrested. Bolshevik Party became stronger after this battle, because Kerenskij relied also on their military organization to defeat the right-wing coup. In this ATL there is no coup at all: Kornilov and Kerenskij reach an agreement. No coup, no more powers to the Red military organization
2. a very different military situation: in OTL defeated in three successive battles in Galicia, Riga and Baltic Islands. Troops were inactive in all other sectors. In this ATL Russian troops are fighting two ongoing military operations in Caucasus and Moldova and reported one victory in the Baltic Islands, very close to the capital.
3. presence of the Entente: in OTL Russia was almost completely isolated (if you don't consider the only available route of Murmansk); in this ATL Russian troops are in contact with British forces in two sectors: in the Caucasus and in the Baltic (very close to the capital).
Stay tuned, things will go very different!
 
Last offensives in Italy/planning

The Austro-Hungarian command, in Baden, after a long and hard debate, have already decided to launch a large offensive on the Italian front, even without German help and during the Moldovan campaign. Baden command is dominated by the idea that a 12th Italian offensive on the Isonzo can’t be stopped anymore, because the morale of troops is very low, losses are very high (85thousands death, missing and wounded after the 11th battle of Isonzo last August), the reserves in men and materiel are now very thin.
Even without German support, Austro-Hungarian forces have to try an attack on the Italian front, if they don’t want to be overcome by a new Italian assault.
Prince Eugen, Commander in Chief of the Isonzo Army Group, plans a two-pronged manoeuvre against the Italian Second Army, in the northern sector of the Isonzo front. In the northern part of the manoeuvre the I Corps has to launch his attack from Plezzo, aiming at Bergogna, passing through the formidable defences of Saga valley. In the southern part of this sector, the XV Corps, with a majority of mountain troops has to launch his attack from Tolmino salient to Cividale, expelling the Italian defenders from Mount Jeza. The attack can succeeds if all the targets are reached quickly and simultaneously. The last and farthest target is the Tagliamento river, deep inside the enemy territory. In case of breakthrough, the First Isonzo Army will have to launch a frontal assault against Italian defences in Bainsizza highlands and the lower Isonzo.

On the Italian side, general Cadorna too is preparing his new offensive since September 18th. That day he sent a memorandum to Entente commands explaining his timing (the 12th offensive on the Isonzo is scheduled for November) and making other requests. He asked for new British naval monitors with heavy artillery and for 100 French tanks of the new model FT-17 and 20 Schneider. The allied command, persuaded that this could be a decisive offensive against Austria-Hungary, sent all the requested equipment in Northern Italy. Ten Royal Navy’s monitors drop their anchor in Venice, the 120 French tanks arrived in Vicenza. 10 Schneider and 20 FT-17 are sent to Verona’s training centre in order to form new Italian tank crews. All the others are sent to the Carso sector (from Vippacco river to the Adriatic sea), in secret locations, along with their French crews. In October, the Italian command mobilized the new ’99 class of soldiers to fill the gaps leaved by the Summer campaign. When Russian premier Kerenskij, after the beginning of the Moldovan campaign, asked for immediate help, Cadorna anticipated the “D-Day” from November 7th to November 1st.
During the last week of October, while Austro-German forces was fighting the Moldovan campaign on the Italian front, the two opposing armies were ready to launch the “last” offensive. The Austro-Hungarian moved first.

below: the plans (red: Austro-Hungarians, green: Italians)

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No miracles at Caporetto

October 28th: before dawn, near 1800 Austro-Hungarian guns open fire along all the Italian front. The artillery preparation is more intense in the Tolmino sector, chosen by A-H command for the offensive. At 8am, the “Stosstruppen” (assault units) of 9 divisions of the Second Isonzo Army attacks the Italian first line. They breach the first line in all sectors. In the northern sector, problems begin immediately after the initial breakthrough. In the really narrow valley of Saga, the A-H 22nd Schuetzen division and the 50th and 55th A-H divisions are caught by the Italian cross-fire and has to stop its advance after heavy losses. In this sector the A-H battalions of the first wave lose the 60% of their forces, even more. The 1st A-H mountain division and the Edelweiss division assail Mount Mrzli. The Edelweiss succeeds in outflanking the Italian positions, joining its target, the village of Volzana. But the frontal assault, managed by the 1st division failed with heavy losses. South to this sector, the 13th Schuetzen division attacks successfully the village of Auzza, but is stopped by intense artillery fire in front of Mount Korada defences by heavy artillery fire. The second wave, provided by the 57th division, suffers heavy losses because of intense artillery fire. By the end of the day, the three bridgeheads established by A-H forces inside Italian defences are not enough to achieve a breakthrough. General Luigi Capello (commander of Italian Second Army) has all the necessary time to retreat his first line troops behind the “redoubts line” and move all the reserves. The 3rd, 62nd and 34th divisions occupy advanced positions between the Saga Valley and Mount Kolovrat. The strategic reserve of the Second Army (XIV and XXVIII Corps) moves up to the Iudrio river and concentrates behind Mount Korada, ready for a counter-attack.

October 29th: the 1st A-H division and the Edelweiss launch a simultaneous attack on Mount Mrzli and Mount Jeza, occupying the two tops. It’s only a brief success: the Italian 34th division (with fresh troops) launches an immediate counter-attack and occupy the top of Mrzli again. The Edelweiss keeps her position on Mount Jeza, but it can’t advance further. A frontal assault against Mount Korada, with 57th and 33rd A-H divisions, failed because of intense Italian artillery fire and the presence of many new Italian fresh units in this sector.

October 30th: Luigi Capello launches a massive counter attack along all the Second Army sector. After a violent artillery bombardment, the strategic reserve of the Italian Second Army assaults the A-H left flank moving up to the Isonzo and aiming at Tolmino. The A-H 33rd division is caught by surprise, out of its trenches, while it was preparing a new attack against Italian positions. Decimated by artillery fire and Italian infantry assault, the 33rd division has to retreat to Tolmino. After this initial success, a further Italian advance is stopped by the resistance of 13th Schuetzen division and 57th A-H infantry division. Those two divisions, alone, stops the two Italian Corps. A second, separate, Italian counter-attack starts from the Bainsizza highlands. The Italian XXIV and II Corps attack fresh A-H divisions on the highlands, but they are stopped with heavy losses.
By the end of October 30th, it's clear to all that the last possible Austro-Hungarian gamble against Italy is failed.

to be continued...

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Entente strikes back

October 31st: In London, the prime ministers of Entente powers meet in an inter-governmental strategic conference. From September till now, while British were employing all of their land forces in the Passchandaele offensive in the Western Front, the Central Power has launched offensives on many other fronts: Eastern, Persian, Caucasian, Italian. Only in Caucasian-Persian front they achieved good results. The Eastern and Italian fronts are now stable. Then it’s time for a coordinated counter-attack. Russia is always the weakest point of the democratic alliance. Subversion is very strong and premier Alexander Kerenskij denounces to its allies the danger of an imminent Bolshevik coup. Allied Prime Ministers agree to launch a concentric offensive on all fronts in order to relieve Russian troops from Central Powers pressure. Paolo Boselli (Italian premier) assures that general Luigi Cadorna has already stopped the A-H offensive in Tolmino sector and then he can launch his offensive on the Carso Plateau immediately, with Entente help, as scheduled. The next day is already scheduled the long awaited British offensive in Palestine, against the weakened Ottoman Fourth Army. Another British offensive has to start in the Mesopotamian front, the 3rd or 4th November, aimed at cutting Ottoman lines behind the Persian-Caucasus front.
The framework of the post-Ottoman Middle East remains the secret Anglo-French pact of 1916 (Sykes-Picot). In those plans, Palestine remained undefined (“brown”) area. British David Lloyd George and Foreign Minister Arthur Balfour agree to the establishment of a Jewish “national home” in Palestine and they decide to inform Baron Rotschild (representing the Zionist movement) as soon as possible. This move is decided thinking to Russia more than the Middle East in itself. British government thinks (erroneously) that the Russian republican government is dominated/influenced by the “Jewish Lobby”. And they rely on the very strong Jewish community in Russia (one fifth of the Russian army), whose rights are now protected by the new democratic government. Balfour’s decision, basically, aims at keeping Russia at war.
That night, Entente leaders are surprised and shocked by the German air force. German Gotha bombers conduct the first fire-bombing of London, inflicting heavy civilian losses. This bombardment boosted the Entente leadership’s determination to fight.

November 1st: on the Italian front, the Italian Third Army (general Duke of Aosta) launches a massive assault against the weakened defences of the A-H Isonzo First Army. Many A-H reserves are already deployed in the offensive of the northern sector (Tolmino), so the Austro-Hungarians held a “thin grey line” in front of the Hermada Hill and the road of Trieste. After a heavy artillery preparation (conducted by land and naval artillery), the entire XXIII and XIII Italian Corps attack the Hermada defensive complex along the Adriatic coast, while the XXV, XI and VIII Italian Corps launch minor faint attacks. Near 100 French tanks charge the A-H lines in the sector of the Italian XIII Corps. Austro-Hungarian troops are not prepared, nor trained, nor provided with proper weapons to meet tanks. The 10 Schneider proved absolutely ineffective in Carso’s rough terrain. All of them go out of service in the first morning of battle, for mechanical failure or because of obstacles too deep to be crossed. The FT-17, otherwise, gave a magnificent performance, crossing the A-H trenches and firing on their rears. The first A-H line is easily broken. Italian infantry occupies Top145, Flondar and Top110, the gates of Hermada complex. French tanks advance deep the A-H system and reach S. Giovanni and Duino, on the Adriatic coast, behind the defender’s third line. The A-H 28th division command goes panic and orders a general retreat on the Hermada Hill.

On the Palestinian front, general Allenby launches his offensive against the Ottomans. While all the best of Ottoman forces is already deployed in the Caucasus-Persian front, Palestine is protected by the Fourth Army alone (Djemal Pasha), whose reserves and munitions were drained constantly in the previous months. After a faint manoeuvre against Gaza and a magnificent counter-intelligence work (managed by colonel Meinertzhagen), Allenby launches the XX Corps and the ANZAC against Beersheba, the weakest point of the enemy defensive system. Thanks to an impressive mounted charge of the Australian 4th Light Horse Brigade, Beersheba falls and the Ottoman defensive line is broken.

November 2nd: on the Italian front, exploiting the disorder in A-H lines, the Italian 34th and 45th divisions occupy Duino, the 33rd and 28th occupy Querceto Hill before dawn. Then, Italian assault troops (“Arditi”) attack the Hermada Hill and reach its top. Finally, after 12 offensives and more then three years of war, Italians breakthrough the Isonzo line definitely. A-H general Boroevic has no troops to fill the gap on the Hermada. He orders a general retreat on the Drava line.

On the Palestinian front, the British XX Corps and the ANZAC attacks the hills of Tel el Khuweilifeh, North East to Beersheba, defended heavily by Ottoman forces. The British advance is temporarily stopped.

November 3rd: on the Italian front, Italian Second and Third Armies begin a quick advance to the East. Many positions evacuated during the night by A-H troops are immediately occupied by the advancing Italian infantry. Bloody battlefields of the past years like Tolmino, Mount San Gabriele, Mount San Daniele, are occupied without fighting. In the southern sector, the Italian 34th and 45th divisions advance to Trieste.

On the Palestinian front, the British Allenby’s army continues the fight for Tel el Khuweilifeh, trench after trench.

On the Mesopotamian front, British general Marshall (who replaced Maude last month) launches a first attack against the Ottoman Sixth Army. Led by Halil Pasha, this Ottoman great unit is already weakened by continual fight and demoralized by the recent loss of Baghdad. Its forces amounts barely to 25.000 men, just the half of British forces. Indian 18th division dislodges easily Turkish defenders from Hit and Khan al Baghdadi, near Baghdad. In Constantinople, Enver Pasha underestimates the news from Mesopotamia. His mind is now focused on Palestinian front and he wants to retake the initiative in the Caucasus as soon as possible.

November 4th: Italian vanguards enters Trieste. No resistance is met, local population greets Italian soldiers as liberators. The A-H two Isonzo Armies complete their strategic retreat behind Drava river. The loss of Trieste is a hard moral defeat for the Empire. The Baden command asks again for immediate German help. Realizing that the situations is desperate, Ludendorff orders an immediate suspension of the Moldovan campaign and dispatches 6 divisions to join A-H Isonzo armies. Emperor Carl I has no more hope for victory. He immediately contacts his brother-in-law Prince Sixte of Bourbon-Parma, his “secret emissary” in France, in order to resume negotiation with Entente for an honourable separate peace.

On the Palestinian front, British XX Corps and ANZAC finally breach Ottoman lines and reach Huj, close to Gaza.

On the Mesopotamian front, Bitish I and III Corps resume the offensive against all the Ottoman line, aiming at Mosul. After few hours of resistance, Halil Pasha orders a strategic retreat behind the Little Zab river and asks for immediate help.

November 5th: While the fight is calming down on the Italian front, Austro-Hungarian Emperor Carl I begins to engage secret talks with Entente.
French intelligence communicates immediately the news of secret talks with Vienna to Russian and Italian allies. Austro-Hungarian Empire will be knocked out of war in the near future. This very important news allow Cadorna to plan further advances in Istria, Dalmatia and Tirol (in order to seize as many territory as possible) and Kornilov to plan a counter-offensive in the Caucasus front. And keep loyal troops behind the lines, in case of Bolshevik coup.

On the Palestinian front, the British XXI Corps attacks Gaza frontally, while the XX Corps and ANZAC are outmanoeuvring Ottoman forces from the East. Risking a complete disaster, Djemal Pasha orders a general retreat from Gaza line. The doors of Palestine are now open to British advance

On the Mesopotamian front, Indian 18th division takes Kirkuk. All the British Indian forces begin a quick advance to Mosul. The Ottoman Yilderim Army Group dispatches to the Sixth Army two divisions of the I Caucasian Corps and the strategic reserves of the Third Army. All of them were facing Russian Caucasus Army, which is considered the weakest of the enemies. Since now.

Moscow: all the Bolshevik Central Committee’s members reach the city at night. Vladimir Lenin reaches his comrades in disguise. The coup will start from here, not from Petrograd, which is considered too dangerous (because of the presence of the British naval force in the Baltic)

To be continued...
 
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Ten days that could have shaken the World

The situation on the different Russian fronts is now stable. The Austro-German offensive in Moldova ended in a stalemate. In the Caucasus, more and more Ottoman troops are living the front because of the British offensives in Palestine and Mesopotamia. No German movements on the Baltic front. The situation in the Baltic Sea is extremely favorable for the Entente: for the first time since 1914, Russian forces, supported by a British squadron of capital ships, achieved superiority on German forces. The strongest blow is coming. From the internal front, not from Central Powers. Morale of troops on all fronts are generally high: during the last two months they achieved a victory (Baltic islands), stopped the Austro-Germans on the Prut river and the Ottomans on the Caucasus front. Officers of all ranks are loyal to Kornilov. Troops behind the lines and garrisons of the big cities are very different: soldiers are much more politicized and already anger at the government’s suspension of the Order Number 1, which deprived soldier’s soviets of a real power. Many low ranking officers are close to the Bolsheviks more than the Provisional Government.
Inside the Bolshevik’s Central Committee, Lenin and Trockij know very well that they have to act now if they want to take power, with or without the Second Soviet Congress vote, which is scheduled for November 7th. Time is not on their side. They have to act before the elections of the All Russians Constituent Assembly, scheduled for November 25th. As we have already seen, last month the plans for a military uprising shifted from Petrograd to Moscow, which is chosen by the Bolshevik Central Committee as the new epicenter of the coup and capital of a new Soviet government in case of victory.
November 6th: Moscow, the Bolshevik Central Committee, now led by Vladimir Lenin, releases his final letter-order to Bolshevik’s Military Organization, early in the evening.
Comrades!
I am writing these lines on the evening of the 6th. The situation is extremely critical. It is as clear as can be that delaying the uprising now really means death.
With all my power I wish to persuade the comrades that now everything hangs on a hair, that on the order of the day are questions that are not solved by conferences, by congresses (even by Congresses of Soviets), but only by the people, by the masses, by the struggle of armed masses.
We must not wait! We may lose everything!
The immediate gain from the seizure of power at present is: defense of the people (not the congress, but the people, in the first place, the army and the peasants) against the Kornilovist government.
Who should seize power?
At present this is not important. Let the Military Revolutionary Committee seize it, or "some other institution" which declares that it will relinquish the power only to the real representatives of the interests of the people, the interests of the Army (immediate offer of peace), the interests of the peasants (take the land immediately, abolish private property), the interests of the hungry.
It is necessary that all the boroughs, all regiments, all forces should be mobilised and should immediately send delegations to the Military Revolutionary Committee, to the Central Committee of the Bolsheviks, insistently demanding that under no circumstances is power to be left in the hands of Kerensky and Co. Until the 7th, by no means! -- but that the matter must absolutely be decided this evening or to-night.
History will not forgive delay by revolutionists who could be victorious today (and will surely be victorious today), while they risk losing much tomorrow, they risk losing all.
If we seize power today, we seize it not against the Soviets but for them.
Seizure of power is the point of the uprising; its political task will be clarified after the seizure.
It would be a disaster or formalism to wait for the uncertain voting of November 7. The people have a right and a duty to decide such questions not by voting but by force; the people have a right and duty in critical moments of a revolution to give directions to their representatives, even their best representatives, and not to wait for them.
The government is tottering. We must deal it the death blow at any cost.
To delay action is the same as death.

Red Guards (loyal to Bolshevik Military Organization) occupy the Kremlin fortress without fighting. The commissars order the 56th Regiment to disarm and disband, giving the weapons to the Red Guards. Regimental command is pro-Bolshevik and the order is executed. The Kremlin is in Bolshevik’s hands. The Central Committee establishes his HQ inside the fortress. Later in the night, junkers (military cadets) attack the fortress and heavy fights begin.
Alarm calls from Moscow alerts the Provisional Government in Petrograd (Kerenskij is already in Murmansk, returning from London’s conference). The military command of the capital orders the occupation of the Winter Palace by loyal troops (junkers, the Female Battalion and a little unit of war veterans). Other junker detachments occupy Bolshevik’s newspaper’s HQ Rabocij Put and Soldat. All the telephonic lines for Smolnij Institute (Bolshevik’s HQ) are deactivated. The bridges on the Neva river are occupied.
In Mogilev, while Kerenskij is temporarily cut off from the action, Kornilov orders the first counter moves. He orders the III Cavalry Corps to move immediately to Petrograd. Then he orders two loyal units from Fourth Army (Moldovan front), the 2nd Infantry division and the “Savage” (Caucasian) division to move to Moscow.
In Helsingfors, admiral Kolchak takes all the necessary measures to prevent a mutiny, ordering the immediate arrest of all the sailor’s Soviet members.

November 7th: in Moscow, junkers try unsuccesfully to re-occupy the Kremlin. The city’s Duma (assembly) elected an emergency cabinet, formed by the city’s major Rudnev and the commander of Moscow’s garrison, colonel Rjabichev. They immediately engage Bolsheviks diplomatically, given the unfavorable balance of forces.
Petrograd, the Bolshevik’s Military Organization, 10.000 men strong, led by Nikolaj Podvojskij dispatches two detachments to re-occupy the Bolshevik’s newspapers HQs. The junkers give up without resistance. Loyal forces opposes much more resistance against a Red detachment, led by Felix Dzherzhinskij, in the central postal and telegraphic station. Here, after heavy fighting and many losses, the junkers have to surrender. At 3pm, the Second Soviet Congress opens in Smolnij Institute. The palace is occupied and strictly controlled by Red Guards detatchments. At 6,15pm, assisted by sailor’s detatchemts from Kronstadt, the Red Guards occupy the Winter Palace. Red commander Antonov Ovseenko arrests all Kerenskij’s ministers.
News from Winter Palace arrive immediately to the Kremlin, where Lenin proclaims the birth of the new Soviet Government. But the Second Soviet Congress doesn’t endorse the new power. Inside the Smolnij Institute, Mensheviks and Social Revolutionaries, which together constitute the majority of the Congress, violently condemn the military coup as a treason of a democratic revolution. Podvoiskij orders the Red Guards to intervene and all the opposers are immediately arrested.
Bolsheviks, supported by local garrisons, took power bloodlessly also in Reval, Ekaterinburg, Saratov, Samara, Kazan and Rostov.
Kerenskij arrives in Carskoe Selo, HQ of III Cavalry Corps. He is informed by his commander, general Krymov, that all the necessary measures to counter the coup have already been taken. The prime minister has only to wait and not interfere in military operations.
South to Petrograd, the vanguard of Third Cavalry Corps seizes Pulkovo after a short but bloody battle against 3000 sailors of the Red Guard.
In Helsingfors, Kolchak orders the Baltic Fleet to steam East, to Petrograd. Mutinies don’t break out, but the risk of internal subversion is already very high, especially in battleships. Then the Russian admiral takes with him for the action only destroyers and cruisers, whose crews fought valiantly in the battle for the Baltic Islands. British vice-admiral Napier dispatches HMS Repulse and Renown to support Kolchak’s light units with big guns. Another British unit, formed by HMS Courageous and Glorious, along with the Second Light Cruisers Squadron and a Russian naval regiment, steams to Reval.

November 8th: in Petrograd, the III Cavalry Corps enters the city from South. After a short battle, it occupies the fortress of S. Peter and Paul, freeing all the Provisional Government’s ministers. The Russian cruisers and destroyers of the Baltic Fleet approaches the Kronstadt naval base, but they are met by intense artillery fire. British battlecruisers Repulse and Renown return fire with 15inch guns. The Red Guards raise the white flag after the fourth salvo. All the revolutionary sailors surrender to the Russian landing party.
In Reval, the British naval force drops the anchor in front of the city, intimating an immediate surrender of the local Bolshevik government. Red Guards give up and a Russian naval regiment easily takes the control of the Estonian capital.
In Moscow, during the ongoing negotiations between the Bolshevik new government and the local cabinet, the red commander Mikheil Frunze concentrates all of his forces (nearly 5000 Red Guards) to reach the Kremlin from the suburbs and occupy militarily the entire city. Inside Kremlin’s walls, Lenin and the new Government pass the three decrees on land (collectivization), peace (immediate armistice with Central Powers) and government (formal constitution of a Bolshevik government)
While the two regular division are advancing on Moscow from Moldova, Kornilov orders the Volga flotilla (based in Tsaritsin) to steam North and suppress the Bolshevik authority in Saratov, Samara and Kazan.

November 9th: Petrograd, after a long and bloody battle against the Latvian Rifle Regiment (the elite unit of the Red Guards), troops of the III Cavalry Corps seize the control of the Smolnij Institute. The Bolsheviks has already executed all their hostages, mainly junkers, Mensheviks and Social Revolutionaries. When regular soldiers occupy the palace, the Bolshevik’s leaders in Petrograd, Podgojskij, Antonov-Ovseenko and Dzherzhinskij are executed immediately, without trials.
Later in the afternoon, Kerenskij enters the Winter Palace and proclaims the martial law all over the Russian Republic. He forms a new Directorate, inside the Provisional Government, with extraordinary executive power, led by himself, with Pavel Miljukov as Foreign Minister, Boris Savinkov as Interior Minister, Lavr Kornilov as War Minister (and commander in chief of the Army), Alexander Kolchak as Navy Minister (and commander in chief of the Navy).
In Moscow, Lenin orders to break every negotiation with local authorities and Mikhail Frunze launches a massive assault against loyal troops from all the industrial suburbs. The battle continues for all the day, street after street.
In Rostov, the Russian Black Sea Fleet, mostly loyal to the Provisional Government, shells the harbor, forcing the Bolshevik’s surrender.

November 10th: the Volga Flotilla reaches Saratov and shells the city’s defenses held by the local Red garrison. The local Bolsheviks surrender before the night.
In Moscow, Reds and regular troops are fighting a double siege. The regular troops are besieging the Kremlin, but the Red Guards led by Frunze are converging to the city center. The battle continues for all the day, with Bolshevik forces seizing a district after another.
The new Directorate in Petrograd released all the documents that proves the Bolshevik secret alliance with Germans. Those documents appears immediately in all Russians newspapers of the evening edition and their impact on troop’s morale is immense.

November 11th: the Volga Flotilla shells the Red Guards positions in Samara. After an intense bombardment, the Red garrison surrenders.
In Moscow, the 2nd Infantry Division defeats Red Guards in Rumyantsevo, while the “Savage” Division seizes Khimki. From now on, Frunze’s forces are trapped between two advancing enemy forces, outside and inside Moscow.

November 12th: the two regular Russian divisions penetrate Moscow easily, defeating all Red Guards units they meet. In the evening, Russian troops free the city’s Duma and major Rudnev from the Red’s siege.

November 13th: the final assault on the Kremlin begins. Losing all hopes, Lenin shot himself just before his capture. Trockij dies in battle. All the other members of the Soviet government (Kamenev, Zinovev, Rykov, Miljutin, Sljapnikov, Krylenko, Dybenko, Nogin, Lunacharskij, Stepanov, Teodorovic, Glebov and Stalin) are captured by soldiers and executed on the spot.

November 14th: the Volga Flotilla forces Kazan to surrender. The morale of Bolsheviks is destroyed after the fall of the Kremlin. They oppose very little resistance.

November 15th: all reserves forces, including Semenov and Ungern-Sternberg's Baikal Cossacks, converge by rail to Ekaterinburg, the last Red bastion. They attacks the city with a massive infantry assault, supported by armoured trains. The city falls before night after a 4 hours battle.
The Petrograd Directorate bans the Bolshevik Party and the Leftist Social Revolutionary Party (allied with Lenin). Their members are arrested all over Russia, their newspapers closed by decree. Railways and military factories are immediately militarized and put under War Minister’s control.
After the battle, prime minister Kerenskij visits Moscow, greeted as a saviour by the citizens and the city Duma.
The short and bloody “Russian Commune” (as foreign press calls it) is ended. The Entente government, alarmed by the Russian turmoil, can now focus on the war against Central Powers.

to be continued...

below: Kerenskij (centre) visits Moscow

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I have only one problem with this timeline: that there isn't more of it.

Keep 'em coming, please.

I will say that I am surprised that the red's were crushed so easily. I guess I shouldn't be, the Central powers being on the ropes and all.

Can't wait to see how russia goes post-war.
 
Nice and detailed timeline.

I'm also curious how Russia fares after the war.

Especially regarding Finland, Poland and the Baltic states.
 
Great timeline. My only disappointments:

1. Seeing Beatty winning the decisive naval victory for the Grand Fleet. I believe he is much inferior to Jellicoe.

This isn't really a major problem for your timeline, however, because I don't think leadership mattered at this point in time. Due to the lessons of Jutland, I believe any Allied naval commander would have been able to lead the Grand Fleet to victory over the High Seas Fleet.

2. Too bad the USA didn't deploy Battleship Division Nine at Scapa until December 1917. It would have been interesting to see them fight at the decisive action.

And since Battleship Division Nine was arguably still not up to British wartime standards, the American performance could have provided an interesting contrast with the British performance at Skagerrak
 
I'm so sorry daddydaycare! I made all my best to engage the BD9 in this timeline, but it was not possible. The Us battleships arrived too late for this ATL. And they were not prepared to fight against Germans, at least until the Spring 1918.
Well, I agree that Jellicoe is far superior then Beatty. David Beatty was really courageous, perhaps too courageous and he made a lot of mistakes in Jutland because of his intemperance, losing an awful lot of ships and men. But, give him a second chance and he can't repeat those mistakes. British learned a lot of lessons after Jutland and they improved security, ammos and tactics. In this ATL I wanted to see how they can apply their new rules. (and the battle is propedeutic for Baltic/Russian Revolution scenario).
 
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I have to admit, I'm a little confused about the status of Finland; and I know this is an OTL issue. Lenin was in exile there, but the British fleet bases itself there?
 
Yes, Lenin was not exiled, but at large in Finland after the failed July insurrection. In this ATL He was in Vyborg (like OTL) while the British squadron arrived in Helsingfors (Helsinki) in this ATL.
 
Austria-Hungary calls for peace

The “Russian Commune” and its failure spread discomfort and demoralization in Central Powers. Both Germany and Austro-Hungarian Empire hoped in a quick collapse of Russia from the inside. They couldn’t intervene directly in the ten-days-struggle inside Russia, because Kornilov keeps on the front all the first line divisions. Only 5 division in reserve (III Cavalry Corps and 2nd Infantry division, plus the Volga Flotilla) were actually employed to crush the Bolshevik military uprising. On the frontline, the balance of forces never changed. And the incoming Winter prevented the Central Powers for planning big advances. They were forced to “stay on the ropes” and now they have lost the last opportunity to knock-out Russia before Winter.
Austria-Hungary has already engaged secret negotiations with Entente through the emperor’s brother-in-law Prince Sixte of Bourbon-Parma. Emperor Karl I, in his first peace proposal asked peace-for-integrity of the Empire, but this plan was vetoed by Italy.
After the Italian occupation of Trieste and the failure of the “Russian Commune” , it became crystal clear in Vienna that: 1) victory was not an option anymore 2) another Winter of war could cause the dissolution of the Empire 3) peace is not possible without territorial concessions. Then Emperor Karl gives Prince Sixte precise instructions for a land-for-peace solution.

November 16th: Prince Sixte forwards to French prime minister Clemanceau the last peace proposal. The Austro-Hungarian Empire is ready to sign a separate peace agreement, surrender Italian speaking regions to Italy and Bosnia-Hercegovina to Serbia

November 17th: Entente prime ministers hold consultations on A-H peace offer and inform both Russian prime minister Kerenskij and Us president Woodrow Wilson (who is not at war with Austro-Hungarian Empire). The main logic of the Entente’s conditions is: Austro-Hungarian Empire has to surrender many territories to Italy and Serbia, while keeping its possessions in the East. From the Entente’s point of view, Vienna can’t keep Italian territories after the fall of Trieste and has to be punished for its war against Serbia. About the East: Rumania has been completely defeated after the loss of Moldova, King Ferdinand and the Rumanian government in exile now aspires to restore the national integrity and nothing more. The same could be said for Russia: no portions of A-H territories are occupied by Russian troops anymore and leftist parties calls for a peace without annexations. Kerenskij, after the “Russian Commune” feels that the republic is too instable to refuse the A-H peace-proposal: his main task, as now, is to end the war as soon as possible. Woodrow Wilson suggests, as a precondition for peace, full autonomy for all Austro-Hungarian nationalities. This condition is approved unanimously by all allies, with much regret for the Czechoslovak and Yugoslav nationalists.

November 18th: Clemanceau, after consultations with all of the allies, gives the answer of the Entente to Prince Sixte. These are the conditions for an armistice:
1) Immediate cease-fire on all fronts
2) Immediate retreat of all troops from occupied territories of Rumania, Russia, Italy, Serbia and Montenegro.
3) Demobilization of the Army and Navy
4) Free access for Entente forces to Austro-Hungarian facilities, roads and railway system until the end of the war with Germany
5) Cession to Italy of the provinces of Trento, Trieste, the entire Istrian peninsula and part of Dalmatia (the islands of Cherso, Lussino, Lunga, Coronata, Pasmano, Lesina, Curzola, Lissa and the cities of Zara and Sebenico with their hinterlands); Austro-Hungary can keep Fiume and the South Tyrol (Bozen)
6) Cession to Serbia of the entire territories of Bosnia-Hercegovina, Slavonia and Bachka
7) full restoration of Rumanian and Russian territorial integrity
8) full autonomy for all the nationalities of the Empire

November 19th: Emperor Karl I receives the Entente’s conditions and opens immediate secret consultations with his foreign minister, Count Czernin. Both men were absolutely resolved for a quick peace solutions and they consider the Entente’s peace-terms as a hard-but-acceptable compromise. But Czernin fears a German over-reaction. Austro-Hungarian Empire is economically and militarily bound to Berlin. German troops were stationed in Bosnia, occupied Serbia and now six divisions are completing their deployment on the Italian front, side by side with A-H divisions. In short: Czernin fears a German invasion of Austro-Hungary in case of separate peace.

They don’t even imagine how the British army is ready to solve their puzzle and dissipate any doubt the next day…

To be continued…
 
I'm sorry but those conditions are not only ASBish easy on AH, but also come against several internal Entente treaties. There's no way that Russia is going to accept not getting anything, it's just not viable, it would completely destroy any remaining russian morale and destroy support for the russian government.

Romania is also not going to accept such a treaty, they entered the war specifically for the Transylvanian territories and have have signed treaty to prove that, again this would destroy romanian support for the romanian government, in the king and in the Entente.

Also general Entente feeling on the matter at the time was specifically to partition AH, what you are describing isn't historically accurate nor reasonable considering the differences in this TL compared to OTL. Here italian lines held at Caporetto and no Russian withdrawl from the war, the idea that AH would get an easier peace than OTL is insane, especially with the conditions you described.

Entente’s peace-terms as a hard-but-acceptable compromise


rofl
 
You are right. I'll change this last post soonest possible. I hoped for a better solution, but some research on Miljukov's intentions in Russia (foreign minister in this ATL) and the Rumanian plans for Transylvania oblige me to change my mind. At least, Russia would take East Galicia and Rumania seizes Transylvania.
I don't agree with you about the dissolution of the Empire. This idea was only on paper until 1918 and it was implemented only late in war, when Czechoslovakia, Transylvania, the Kingdom of Croats, Slovenes and Serbs declared their own independence in October 1918. Before 1918 there were many conflicting projects inside the Entente, but all governments, including president Wilson, was asking for "autonomy" of nationalities, not yet independence.
Then we can have a peace proposal like that: A-H can survive as empire, but it has to cede Trento and the Adriatic coast to Italy (Treaty of London), Bosnia, Slavonia and Bachka to Serbia (Treaty of London again), Transylvania to Rumania (Rumanian-Entente pact), East Galicia to Russia (as planned by Russian government since 1914), West Galicia to Poland (which was recognized by Russian first provisional government as an independent nation). But now we have VERY hard peace terms. Could Karl accept them?
 
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You are right. I'll change this last post soonest possible. I hoped for a better solution, but some research on Miljukov's intentions in Russia (foreign minister in this ATL) and the Rumanian plans for Transylvania oblige me to change my mind. At least, Russia would take East Galicia and Rumania seizes Transylvania.
I don't agree with you about the dissolution of the Empire. This idea was only on paper until 1918 and it was implemented only late in war, when Czechoslovakia, Transylvania, the Kingdom of Croats, Slovenes and Serbs declared their own independence in October 1918. Before 1918 there were many conflicting projects inside the Entente, but all governments, including president Wilson, was asking for "autonomy" of nationalities, not yet independence.
Then we can have a peace proposal like that: A-H can survive as empire, but it has to cede Trento and the Adriatic coast to Italy (Treaty of London), Bosnia, Slavonia and Bachka to Serbia (Treaty of London again), Transylvania to Rumania (Rumanian-Entente pact), East Galicia to Russia (as planned by Russian government since 1914), West Galicia to Poland (which was recognized by Russian first provisional government as an independent nation). But now we have VERY hard peace terms. Could Karl accept them?


Wilson was actually asking for self-determination, which almost always resulted in independence, which is why I'm saying with a CP loss, especially a loss as severe as in this TL, the chance of AH surving are very slim at best. If for no other reason than the fact that the Entente made a lot of promises to a lot of countries for a lot of territory which mostly was part of AH at the time.

Italy - claims on only AH territory
Serbia - same
Romania - same
Russia - same
Montenegro - same

In fact the only country that had claims on german territory was France and any version of a reestablished Poland.

With the Treaty of London(1915) and the Treaty of Bucharest(1916) the Entente was practically planning the partition of AH, even if it doesn't say so. It would be almost impossible for AH to survive such losses, in such a weakened state the croatians and hungarians would most likely declare independence and there would be little the Emperor could do about it, but even if you somehow waved away croatian and hungarian nationalism(not likely at all) at best you'll get a very federated state between Austria Hungary and Croatia where the emperor would be a figure head at best.

I understand the general idea of trying to keep AH alive post 1918, it's just not likely at all, so unlikely in fact that even in a case of CP win, AH would most likely collapse by mid 1920s.
 
"I understand the general idea of trying to keep AH alive post 1918, it's just not likely at all, so unlikely in fact that even in a case of CP win, AH would most likely collapse by mid 1920s."

Yes, this is precisely what I'll write. There is no CP win in this ATL, but a different outcome of Entente victory. I can anticipate that in this ATL the AH Empire is doomed, but it will generate different states.
About the self-determination principle: Wilson stated it in his 14 points, in 1918. Not in 1917. Am I wrong?
 
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@mikegold: Fiume is not considered in Treaty of London. Italians claimed it only after the dissolution of the A-H Empire.
 
"I understand the general idea of trying to keep AH alive post 1918, it's just not likely at all, so unlikely in fact that even in a case of CP win, AH would most likely collapse by mid 1920s."

Yes, this is precisely what I'll write. There is no CP win in this ATL, but a different outcome of Entente victory. I can anticipate that in this ATL the AH Empire is doomed, but it will generate different states.
About the self-determination principle: Wilson stated it in his 14 points, in 1918. Not in 1917. Am I wrong?

Like I said the Entente wanted to partition AH, it had nothing to do with Wilson's 14 points, so the idea that in a Entente victory case you can postpone the collapse of AH by even a few years is very unbelievable, like I said, the allies had made a lot of promises to a lot of countries they now had to uphold. Having AH survive even a few years after losing territory to Italy, Romania, Serbia and Russia (at least, possible more) even without any extra conditions from the allies is not likely at all, hungarian, croatian, polish and czech nationalism will simply rip it apart, the Emperor just doesn't have the power to stop it.

As for having other countries form, that's also not very likely, nationalism was the dominant issue when establishing states at this period. You can argue that the borders might be slightly different, but having any major difference is implausable. Yes you might not have Yugaslavia and have Serbia, Croatia and Montenegro as seperate states, that's easily done. You might also get a 2 state solution with Czech and Slovakia, I'm not exactly sure how different these movements were and if it's more likely it will result in a union or separate states.

The hungarians are pretty clear, they will almost certainly have pretty much the same territory as OTL, polish nationalism will also kick in, and if the Entente wants a polish state this one will also be created.

I just don't see how much different these states can be, that was the reason I also said AH would collapse in a CP victory case, AH was simply too many nationalities too different from eachother and in many cases hated eachother.

Bottom line is, in an Entente victory scenario, there is no feasable way to have AH outlive 1919, the British and the French made too many promises to many countries for AH territory and no nation that isn't nationally homogenous could realistically survive it.
 
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