Which Year is TR's Best Bet as the Republican Nominee?

Which year is his best bet to win?


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So, as the title says, and assuming TR doesn't die in 1919 or gets ill due to no doomed South American expedition, which year would prove the best bet for TR to win as the Republican Nominee for President of the United States?

PS - I am currently, as in literally right now, listening to Colonel Roosevelt; it is delightful!
 
1908: he neutered himself by declaring on election night 1904 that he would not run again, and the GOP Congressional barons (who made Gingrich and Pelosi look like Harry Reid in comparison) reacted accordingly by vetoing most of his domestic agenda. By doing so then he breaks the 2-term tradition once and for all, especially if a Democratic president consummates that later.

1912: ASB to win either the GOP nomination or as a Progressive.

1916: He'd beat Wilson but the wounds were too fresh from 1912.

1920: Assuming appropriate butterflies, this would also be good but I don't think his health would support a fourth term, definitely not a fifth, when he'd be pushing 70 and thus be both the oldest and youngest POTUS in American history.
 
He would have a much better shot at winning in 1916 if he doesn't run in 1912 and instead sits the whole thing out. He can't run in both 1912 and 1916 and win either one.
 
What is your requirement for a POD? If you allow a 1904 POD, then 1908 would be his best bet. If he didn't announce that he wasn't running, that would not only make his second term more successful, it would also allow him to run in 1908 without going back on his word. As for the two-term tradition, he could argue that he wasn't violating it, since he had only served a term and a half. I think if he wanted it he could have gotten it, but again, you need a 1904 POD to make it happen.
 
Surely the best POD is 1901?

Have McKinley live out his second term, get Teddy elected in 1904 and retire in 1913
 
A VP was a formality and a placeholder, having one nominated is ASB until after WWII. ONly Nixon's reinvention of the office into a powerful political one during the 1950s led to the modern-day convention that VPs are first in line to succeed their term-limited (Reagan) or defeated (Carter) Presidents.
 
1908 where he does not announce in 1904 he will not run for a third term, otherwise a 1916 election where he did not run in 1912, Wilson was actually vulnerable, Hughes came plretty close to beating him in OTTL
 
A VP was a formality and a placeholder, having one nominated is ASB until after WWII.

I bow to your superior knowledge RB.


In that case there's only two options, either he thinks harder about wanting to be POTUS and never mentions his intention to step down in 1908, or he keeps his mouth shut in 1912 and wait til 1916.
 
I orginally voted for 1908 but then I rememberred hewould be breaki gtge third term tradition. so Iwil say 1920. Republican landslide even without him .
 
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