Which will Cheney Choose?

Which option should Cheney choose?

  • Attack North Korea first.

    Votes: 19 20.7%
  • Use Diplomatic Pressure to deter North Korea

    Votes: 11 12.0%
  • threaten the use of military force

    Votes: 62 67.4%

  • Total voters
    92
  • Poll closed .
The question is would the US agree to terms such as those, and even if they did would they uphold their end of the bargain? The US has no great love for the PRC, and vice-versa. US military plans say if N. Korea becomes a loose cannon than the PRC will flex its muscles in the area - which might also involve the ROC. Whether or not this is the actual truth or plausible doesn't matter, its the perception within the US. Likewise, the perception in the PRC is that the US will use any affair involving the Korean peninsula as a way to get their foot in the door in China's backyard. So Taiwan isn't an issue that's going to be hand-waved away.

First off perception in the US =/= perception among US policy makers

Secondly, this is the PRC we're talking about here, their idea of force projection is taking a road trip to Mongolia, or a ferry to Hong Kong. The unmentionable sea mammal is more feasible than a PLA landing in Taiwan and everybody and their uncle inside the DoD knows it.
 
First off perception in the US =/= perception among US policy makers

Secondly, this is the PRC we're talking about here, their idea of force projection is taking a road trip to Mongolia, or a ferry to Hong Kong. The unmentionable sea mammal is more feasible than a PLA landing in Taiwan and everybody and their uncle inside the DoD knows it.

Right... :rolleyes: that's why the US maintains a large military force in Taiwan, and has repeatedly told the PRC since the early 80s to sit on it.

Secondly, Hong Kong is a a part of the PRC.
And thirdly, as far as Mongolia, China basically has them in their pocket. Trade relations between the two are so uneven that the PRC makes up for over half of all trade going in or out of Mongolia :eek: As well the PRC allows Mongolia to use the port of Tianjin; a critical route by which they could deny Mongolia at any time.
 
Right... :rolleyes: that's why the US maintains a large military force in Taiwan,

Uh... no we don't. Seriously, where do people come up with this stuff?

and has repeatedly told the PRC since the early 80s to sit on it.

Which proves what? The US guarenteeing Taiwanese security, and backing up its guarentee with threats of force, doesn't mean the China can invade Taiwan, it just means that China can harm Taiwan, big difference.

Secondly, Hong Kong is a a part of the PRC.
And thirdly, as far as Mongolia, China basically has them in their pocket. Trade relations between the two are so uneven that the PRC makes up for over half of all trade going in or out of Mongolia :eek: As well the PRC allows Mongolia to use the port of Tianjin; a critical route by which they could deny Mongolia at any time.

So? All that I was pointing out was that the PLA's and PLAN's force projection capabilities are at best laughable, at worst non-existant. I wasn't saying that China doesn't have control over Hong Kong, or massive influence over Mongolia, because China has both of those things, but instead was illustrating the point that, honestly, the Chinese military can only effectively exert power in areas it already controls, or border areas within 200 km of the PRC's borders (overland). Outside of that area the ability of PLA, and PLAN forces to conduct meaningful, and decisive operations is entirely non-existant.
 
Uh... no we don't. Seriously, where do people come up with this stuff?

Usually from having an understanding of the source material and context.

Which proves what? The US guarenteeing Taiwanese security, and backing up its guarentee with threats of force, doesn't mean the China can invade Taiwan, it just means that China can harm Taiwan, big difference.

>> harm
>> invade
>> implying invasion isn't harm


;)


So it shows you don't understand the situation in Eastern Asian if you don't even know which territory belongs to whom, or what the relationships are between the various states.

the Chinese military can only effectively exert power in areas it already controls, or border areas within 200 km of the PRC's borders (overland). Outside of that area the ability of PLA, and PLAN forces to conduct meaningful, and decisive operations is entirely non-existant.

First, I would have you look at this image.
Medium_and_Intercontinental_Range_Ballistic_Missiles.png


Secondly, consider that the PRC/PLA has/had troops operating as UNPKOs in Lebanon, Congo, Sundan, etc. This would also point to the fact the PRC has a certain amount of force projection.

Thirdly, consider the Third Taiwan Straight Crisis of '95 - '96. The ROC was moving away from the One-China policy at the time, so the PRC staged some missile tests around the Straights. According to your logic, this should be no big deal. No different than any other state conducting weapons test, especially in response to the policies and actions of a rival neighboring state. Politics as usual, especially in the rapidly industrializing world. What actually happened?

The U.S. government responded by staging the biggest display of American military might in Asia since the Vietnam War. President Clinton ordered both the Independence and Nimitz carrier battle groups to Taiwan. This was the first transit by a U.S. warship in the Taiwan Strait since 1976, a clear signal by the U.S. that it was willing and ready to defend Taiwan in the face of PLA military action, and an action related to the US' promises in the Taiwan Relations Act. In retaliation, the PRC order more live-fire missile tests in the area and staged a simulated amphibious assault.

Cooler heads prevailed, but the stock market in Taiwan dropped by 17% for the duration of the crisis. The island lost a significant amount of capital and real estate prices fell. The PRC upped its military expansion and upgrades, purchasing several naval assets from Russia immediately after the crisis, including missile destroyers and attack submarines.

Fourthly, lets consider the bigger picture. The PRC is a member of the UNSC, and a recognized nuclear power. So, yea :cool: As I've been saying already, the PRC isn't going to like the US messing around in China's sphere of influence. And they've only grown larger/stronger since '96.

Finally, I'd remind you and others that I recommend this discussion be moved into PMs or Chat earlier, and I make the suggestion again. We've thread-jacked IchBinDieKaiser's poll enough as is.
 
Actually I think the PRC would back North Korea up to a point. Then if they still saw that the people up north were going to do something stupid, Hello we're here as peace keepers, don't mind us we will protect you from the evil US and South Korea, by the way this <insert person name here> is your new Great Leader.
 
Actually I think the PRC would back North Korea up to a point. Then if they still saw that the people up north were going to do something stupid, Hello we're here as peace keepers, don't mind us we will protect you from the evil US and South Korea, by the way this <insert person name here> is your new Great Leader.


that would my favorite relatively casualty-free solution.
 
Usually from having an understanding of the source material and context.

But we don't have military forces there, no AFBs, no NASs, no Camp whathave yous, nothing at all, and until you can provide concrete evidence otherwise your just spouting off unfounded bunk.
>> harm
>> invade
>> implying invasion isn't harm

;)

No its simply that ability to harm =/= ability to invade, the English Channel in Fall 1940, sure one side can harm the enemy immensely, but neither can actually project the power nessecary to carry a decisive action.


So it shows you don't understand the situation in Eastern Asian if you don't even know which territory belongs to whom, or what the relationships are between the various states.

*headdesk* Are you that dense, I know what belongs to who, again, that wasn't what I was illustrating.

First, I would have you look at this image.
Medium_and_Intercontinental_Range_Ballistic_Missiles.png


Secondly, consider that the PRC/PLA has/had troops operating as UNPKOs in Lebanon, Congo, Sundan, etc. This would also point to the fact the PRC has a certain amount of force projection.

Ok? So they can lob missles and engage in peacekeeping, effective force projection this does not make. Lobbing missles is just causing destruction not projecting force, and arguing that sustaining a brigade of peacekeepers in an enviroment with air tight supply lines means China can undertake substantial power projection in a hostile enviroment is ridiculous.
Thirdly, consider the Third Taiwan Straight Crisis of '95 - '96. The ROC was moving away from the One-China policy at the time, so the PRC staged some missile tests around the Straights. According to your logic, this should be no big deal. No different than any other state conducting weapons test, especially in response to the policies and actions of a rival neighboring state. Politics as usual, especially in the rapidly industrializing world. What actually happened?

The U.S. government responded by staging the biggest display of American military might in Asia since the Vietnam War. President Clinton ordered both the Independence and Nimitz carrier battle groups to Taiwan. This was the first transit by a U.S. warship in the Taiwan Strait since 1976, a clear signal by the U.S. that it was willing and ready to defend Taiwan in the face of PLA military action, and an action related to the US' promises in the Taiwan Relations Act. In retaliation, the PRC order more live-fire missile tests in the area and staged a simulated amphibious assault.

Cooler heads prevailed, but the stock market in Taiwan dropped by 17% for the duration of the crisis. The island lost a significant amount of capital and real estate prices fell. The PRC upped its military expansion and upgrades, purchasing several naval assets from Russia immediately after the crisis, including missile destroyers and attack submarines.

First off, you really think I haven't heard of the Straits Crisis of 96-97?

Secondly, I'm just going to ask if you know what force projection is, because while their is a fair amount of force projection that happened during the episodes you so vividly illustrated above it was all undertaken by the USN, not the PLAN.


Fourthly, lets consider the bigger picture. The PRC is a member of the UNSC, and a recognized nuclear power. So, yea :cool: As I've been saying already, the PRC isn't going to like the US messing around in China's sphere of influence. And they've only grown larger/stronger since '96.

Influence =/= force projection

Nuclear capability =/= force projection

Ability to effectively undertake decisive operations against opposing forces in a distant areas = force projection

Finally, I'd remind you and others that I recommend this discussion be moved into PMs or Chat earlier, and I make the suggestion again. We've thread-jacked IchBinDieKaiser's poll enough as is.

Your reminding me that your recommending something for the first time :confused:

Anyways agreed, if you want to reply then just send me a pm.
 
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