Which states had the most potential had they retained their independence?

CaliGuy

Banned
Out of all of the states that lost their independence after 1815 in our TL, which ones had the most potential had they remained independent?

Specifically, what I mean by this is this--which of these states could have become a Great Power or at least a regional power and provided (by the standards of the times) a relatively good standard of living for its population?
 
Indicus

Indicus

CaliGuy said:
Out of all of the states that lost their independence after 1815 in our TL, which ones had the most potential had they remained independent?
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Well, it didn't lose its independence in 1815, but the Confederation of the Rhine works. It was a sister state to France, but the vast coal deposits in the Ruhr is certainly beneficial to industrialization. Though again, being a sister state to France is going to limit its actual reach.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Indicus said:
Well, it didn't lose its independence in 1815, but the Confederation of the Rhine works. It was a sister state to France, but the vast coal deposits in the Ruhr is certainly beneficial to industrialization. Though again, being a sister state to France is going to limit its actual reach.
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Completely agreed with this.

However, I specifically limited it to countries who lost their independence after 1815 in order to exclude Napoleonic-era creations from this list.
 
Indicus

Indicus

Talking about lesser-known countries, Egypt under the Mehmet Ali dynasty. Mehmet Ali Pasha/Muhammad Ali Pasha/A bunch of other romanizations is a pretty famous person, turning Egypt from a minor country conquered by Napoleon into one of the most modern parts of the Ottoman Empire. His successors weren't anywhere near as illustrious, however, and while Ismail the Magnificent was a remarkably modern man, stating "My country is no longer in Africa; we are now part of Europe. It is therefore natural for us to abandon our former ways and to adopt a new system adapted to our social conditions". However, he wasted Egypt's money in useless wars and caused the country to go bankrupt, leading to a loss of independence. If Ismail the Magnificent limited Egypt's wars or there were more modernizers between Mehmet Ali Pasha and Ismail the Magnificent, Egypt could have very well built light industry and push its power into neighbouring regions.
 

Thoresby

Kerney said:
Republic of Texas. Oil, good ports, eventually secure borders.
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Indicus said:
Ah. In that case, California certainly fulfils this.
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Both have possibilities as regional powers on say a Canada level. But how about a Vietnam that pulls a Meji. Before they fell apart they had extended into what's now eastern Laos and Cambodia, have them be a bit luckier and more competant and remain stable and develop you have a major Regional Power at the very least and if they can grab Cambodia and Laos possibly a Great Power.
 
Indicus

Indicus

Thoresby said:
Both have possibilities as regional powers on say a Canada level. But how about a Vietnam that pulls a Meji. Before they fell apart they had extended into what's now eastern Laos and Cambodia, have them be a bit luckier and more competant and remain stable and develop you have a major Regional Power at the very least and if they can grab Cambodia and Laos possibly a Great Power.
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I'm not too sure if many countries can be that powerful or pull a Meiji. Vietnam may fit the bill, I'm not sure.

But my Egypt suggestion may work better, even if it can never be quite as powerful as Japan.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Indicus said:
Talking about lesser-known countries, Egypt under the Mehmet Ali dynasty. Mehmet Ali Pasha/Muhammad Ali Pasha/A bunch of other romanizations is a pretty famous person, turning Egypt from a minor country conquered by Napoleon into one of the most modern parts of the Ottoman Empire. His successors weren't anywhere near as illustrious, however, and while Ismail the Magnificent was a remarkably modern man, stating "My country is no longer in Africa; we are now part of Europe. It is therefore natural for us to abandon our former ways and to adopt a new system adapted to our social conditions". However, he wasted Egypt's money in useless wars and caused the country to go bankrupt, leading to a loss of independence. If Ismail the Magnificent limited Egypt's wars or there were more modernizers between Mehmet Ali Pasha and Ismail the Magnificent, Egypt could have very well built light industry and push its power into neighbouring regions.
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Yeah, Egypt certainly had some potential; indeed, wasn't Egypt even on the verge of conquering the entire Ottoman Empire in the early 1830s?

Thoresby said:
Both have possibilities as regional powers on say a Canada level. But how about a Vietnam that pulls a Meji. Before they fell apart they had extended into what's now eastern Laos and Cambodia, have them be a bit luckier and more competant and remain stable and develop you have a major Regional Power at the very least and if they can grab Cambodia and Laos possibly a Great Power.
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Even if Vietnam can avoid French conquest, it might have a more difficult time than Japan had in regards to preventing Chinese intrusion. After all, China might not want to see a Vietnam more powerful than itself, and unlike with Japan, China has a direct land border with Vietnam.
 

Thoresby

Indicus said:
I'm not too sure if many countries can be that powerful or pull a Meiji. Vietnam may fit the bill, I'm not sure.
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Oh I agree, pre French Vietnam was a fairly unstable place with regular dynastic change, coups, lost wars, revolts etc. So as a candidate to pull a Meji it is far from perfect, Japan is a real oddity in lots of ways. But If you want a state that existed in 1815 and then lost it's independence but that with a bit of luck could be a Great Power you have a fairly short list. Another addition to the list is the Sikh Empire. With a bit better leadership they could have avoided being conquered by the British and could instead of continued to act as their buffer between the rich useful bits of India and Afghans and Persians. If it can hold things together and maybe capture Sind and thus get access to the Sea it would be a significant regional power and if it could pursue a rather more effective path of development than OTL Pakistan or India it could be a Great Power by today.

Indicus said:
But my Egypt suggestion may work better, even if it can never be quite as powerful as Japan.
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I agree, Egypt also has problems but it's probably a better bet.

CaliGuy said:
Even if Vietnam can avoid French conquest, it might have a more difficult time than Japan had in regards to preventing Chinese intrusion. After all, China might not want to see a Vietnam more powerful than itself, and unlike with Japan, China has a direct land border with Vietnam.
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You are correct and Chinese interference was one of the reasons why Vietnam tended to be unstable. A China screw or at least a succession of distractions at key points may be necessary.
 
Indicus

Indicus

CaliGuy said:
Yeah, Egypt certainly had some potential; indeed, wasn't Egypt even on the verge of conquering the entire Ottoman Empire in the early 1830s?
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Yep. Mehmet Ali Pasha truly was the Napoleon of Egypt in many ways.

But even such a vast Egyptian Empire (what would you call it? In Arabic, the dynasty of Mehmet Ali was called Alawiyya, so in English, the Alawid Empire?) doesn't mean a strong, independent Egypt in and of itself. You need to fiddle around with the rulers a bit, such as keeping the reactionary Abbas I from the throne.
 
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