Which State is most likely to have a Third-Party Governor next:

New England is a good guess, but I'm guessing the only chance for a third-party governor up there would come from the Vermont Progressives. The wave of center-right independents is unlikely to coalesce into an actual third party; the Republicans have some major structural problems and are becoming a toxic brand up there, but things would have to get even worse for an actual center-right New England third party to form.
Unless one of them creates a third party specifically for themselves to run with, like Lowell Weicker did in 1990 when he created "A Connecticut Party" and was successfully elected Governor of Connecticut.
 
Here's 2 interesting ideas

1.) If Charlie Crist didn't become a Democrat, and he ran in 2014 as an independent, could he win?

2.) (as mentioned before) If Gary Johnson runs in 2014 as a Libertarian, can he win?

To answer my own questions: I think Scott and Crist would probably lose to whatever Democratic candidate they put up, there is only so much one-party rule a state can put up with. And I definitely think Johnson can pull a Jerry Brown and return to New Mexico as a Libertarian, give that he has been gone for a while, but Martinez's now-high popularity will be a deciding factor: If she wanes, a close 3-way match, if it stays high she is gonna win with little problem.
 
California is a possibility by 2020 mostly thanks to the total implosion of the California GOP as an effective political party. With the damage done to the GOP brand out here the ONLY other possible challenger to the Democrats would have to come from a third party. That said I have no predictions as to which third party that would be; the Libertarians don't have much statewide appeal, the Greens are not the force they used to be and are beset by infighting, and there's no other third party out there worth mentioning.
 
California is a possibility by 2020 mostly thanks to the total implosion of the California GOP as an effective political party. With the damage done to the GOP brand out here the ONLY other possible challenger to the Democrats would have to come from a third party. That said I have no predictions as to which third party that would be; the Libertarians don't have much statewide appeal, the Greens are not the force they used to be and are beset by infighting, and there's no other third party out there worth mentioning.
Due to the Jungle Primaries, the old Louisiana route of a vibrant political system within the Democratic Party shouldn't be ruled out.
 
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