Which Starting Year Gave Germany the Best shot?

Which Starting Year Gave Germany the Best Shot?

  • 1938

    Votes: 8 13.1%
  • 1939 (OTL)

    Votes: 41 67.2%
  • 1940

    Votes: 6 9.8%
  • 1941

    Votes: 3 4.9%
  • 1942

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Later

    Votes: 3 4.9%

  • Total voters
    61
Using the superpower of 20/20 hindsight, which year do you think gave Germany the best shot at winning WW2 and achieving it's all of the regimes strategic goals. (Lebensraum, Continental Hegemony, economic aurtarky, etc)

Why?
 

Japhy

Banned
Best shot is still a near zero-probability, being as their goals were pretty much insane. 1939/1940/1941 was really the only chance they had, before that their military build up was unready to the point you have Generals who would gladly go along with the eventual madness plotting a coup to prevent an "inevitable" defeat. Later than 1941 and Anglo-French and Soviet rearmarment and military expansion means that Germany is boxed in, and the military tech it had stockpiled since the early 1930's is being firmly outclassed and their economic strains mean that the economy is on the verge of tanking.

But then of course what we got from 1939 was near enough the best they were ever going to pull off so...
 
Nazi Germany's wildest ambitions were never in any way or form achievable.

That said, 1939-1940 is where they're at their relative strongest against the rearming British and French; any earlier, they're too weak and any later, their "blitzkrieg" isn't guaranteed.
 
Earlier than 38 then the German Army and Airforce are not nearly powerful enough even with their advantage of 'Auftragstaktik'

After 1940 France will be well on the way to being fully modernised and by May 41 the British BEF will be 3+ times the size of the force that fought in the OTL battle of France in 1940 and both forces will have many many more tanks than May 1940

The Airforces again will be much larger and many of the French aircraft just coming into srvice before the fall of France such as the Dewoitine D.520 would be in service in large numbers as well as US Planes such as P40s and P36s

Also both the British and French will have had an extra year or so of training by 1941

IMO Germany managed to declare war during an 18 month period where the German Armed forces had become stronger than those of the British and French.

I dont think that there was a beter time than Late 1939 / early 1940.

Also Russia poses a problem for Germany - to early and Russia still has an effective Officer Corps - too late and the Red Army has also sufficinetly recovered from the purges.
 
Earlier than 38 then the German Army and Airforce are not nearly powerful enough even with their advantage of 'Auftragstaktik'

After 1940 France will be well on the way to being fully modernised and by May 41 the British BEF will be 3+ times the size of the force that fought in the OTL battle of France in 1940 and both forces will have many many more tanks than May 1940

The Airforces again will be much larger and many of the French aircraft just coming into srvice before the fall of France such as the Dewoitine D.520 would be in service in large numbers as well as US Planes such as P40s and P36s

Also both the British and French will have had an extra year or so of training by 1941

IMO Germany managed to declare war during an 18 month period where the German Armed forces had become stronger than those of the British and French.

I dont think that there was a beter time than Late 1939 / early 1940.

Also Russia poses a problem for Germany - to early and Russia still has an effective Officer Corps - too late and the Red Army has also sufficinetly recovered from the purges.

Yes Germany jumped through its Golden Window...it still lost but the options either way would have seen it lose worse.
 
Anyway Germany could've jumped through said window earlier in 39?

Like July or June?

Gives them enough time to beat Poland and then turnaround for a French Invasion by the Fall.
 

jahenders

Banned
I agree that 1939 was their best bet, but you're right that there might have been benefit to going earlier in the year. However, I think German readiness goes into question with every month you move to the left.

One good point about doing the French invasion in the Fall is that Dunkirk might have happened at a dicier time, meaning less troops escape.

Additionally, if they're done with France by Christmas, then maybe Barbarossa launches earlier, meaning they can get farther before being stopped by bad weather.

Anyway Germany could've jumped through said window earlier in 39?

Like July or June?

Gives them enough time to beat Poland and then turnaround for a French Invasion by the Fall.
 
I agree that 1939 was their best bet, but you're right that there might have been benefit to going earlier in the year. However, I think German readiness goes into question with every month you move to the left.

One good point about doing the French invasion in the Fall is that Dunkirk might have happened at a dicier time, meaning less troops escape.

Additionally, if they're done with France by Christmas, then maybe Barbarossa launches earlier, meaning they can get farther before being stopped by bad weather.

Dunkirk might not have happened at all if the weather is worse as this would imply that the weather is a lot worse - meaning that a large part of the advantage of the Luftwaffe is also lost - and shorter days = a slower campaign as armies and Air Forces in 1940 generally didn't fight very well in the dark or bad weather.

The Royal Navy on the other hand.......
 

Saphroneth

Banned
The problem the Germans have is twofold.

Much earlier and they don't have time for all their useful OTL diplomatic moves. They need the Skoda works, and they need winter-time production to fill out their reserves for the intensive campaign of the Sickle-cut.

But much later and they have a different problem - airframe replacement.

The Stuka was already aging, the Bf-109s were approaching an improvement cycle, and the Brits and French were still getting massive aircraft production on-stream (and this time it's production of modern fighters, like the Spitfire.)
 
Hitler moved at the best possible time. It wasn't enough. Plausible Nazi hegemony in Europe needs wild PoDs at least a decade before the war could be fought.
 

CalBear

Moderator
Donor
Monthly Donor
1527.

Once the ASB moves them back, they are Golden.

i.e. Wasn't going to happen without divine intervention.
 
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