Black Sea
If they enter the Crimean War it's super easy for them to wind up with Odessa and Nikolaev.
Not exactly: IIRC, the bulk of the Russian army had been staying on the border just to prevent something of the kind from happening.
It doesn't take much of a POD to get both Austria and Sweden on board for that war, and once that happens Russia is pretty much pooched. The Austrian army could easily give Russia a run for its money just by showing up.
Austrian army was not good enough to intimidate anybody just by its appearance (being routinely beaten by pretty much everyone worth mentioning) and Sweden did not remain quite neutral during the CW. In OTL as a result of the diplomatic pressure Russians evacuated the Principalities which had been re-occupied by the Austrians and Ottomans but that's approximately as much as Austrian "showing up" could achieve.
Then you keep ignoring the obvious fact that the whole fighting had been happening on the Russian borders and it took practically all available French and British resources and a year to take a southern part of Sevastopol (Northern, across the bay was untouched). OTOH, the Ottomans had been suffering serious defeats on the Caucasus (lost Kars). Hardly a promising scenario for "pooching". The problem for Russia was not as much military as economic: the war was too expensive to continue. With Kars as a bargaining chip, Russia ended up with the minimal territorial losses (and a huge government debt to pay).
So no chance of making even smallish gains, like Bessarabia?
At the time of the Crimean War it would have certainly been more than a match for the Russian army, which had been watered down to the point of being an overgrown marching band. Prior to Molke's reforms the Austrian army was probably second only to the French in Europe.Austrian army was not good enough to intimidate anybody just by its appearance (being routinely beaten by pretty much everyone worth mentioning)
At the time of the Crimean War it would have certainly been more than a match for the Russian army, which had been watered down to the point of being an overgrown marching band. Prior to Molke's reforms the Austrian army was probably second only to the French in Europe.
And get Austrian instead. Why do you think that there was any love lost among the participants? Austria was still considered a Great Power and its possession of the Danube provinces would extent it dangerously close to the Straits to the French and British displeasure. Why would Austria get the Ottoman territories as a reward for (formally) defending the Ottomans is a little bit unclear to me.![]()
Austria would have immense trouble absorbing the Danubian Principalities, and it's obvious to everyone that Austria is much weaker than Russia.
Furthermore, relative to the Aegean, which would require Serbia, Macedonia, and Greek Macedonia to fall to Austria, it's clearly obvious that getting to the Black Sea requires far less expansion than getting to the Aegean.
At the time of the Crimean War it would have certainly been more than a match for the Russian army, which had been watered down to the point of being an overgrown marching band. Prior to Molke's reforms the Austrian army was probably second only to the French in Europe.
IIRC, by the Peace of Paris Russia returned to Moldavia a small piece of a territory it annexed in 1812 (and got it back after the war of 1877-8). Hapsburgs had to evacuate the Principalities. It is rather optimistic (or naive) to expect that the Brits, French, Sardinians and the Ottomans would willingly give a piece of an Ottoman territory to Austria.
Good point, what if I amend the proposal that the anti-Russian coalition, with the addition of Austria, force Russia yield all Bessarabia to Moldavia. After the war, Moldavia remains dependent on Austria to hold on to the regained territory. Possibly Austria encourages Wallachia and Moldavia to remain independent of each other, to lessen their potential for claims against Transylvania.