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Which POD is more beneficial to Napoleon in the long run?

1. Napoleon keeps Ferdinand on the Spanish Throne. We likely don't get the peninsular war as we know it. This saves 100,000 french troops and keeps Wellington out longer. Cons include keeping the albatross that is Spain as an ally.

2. No invasion of Russia. This keeps the grand armee from collapsing but leaves a stronger russia on his flank. It keeps the continental system from ever really working.

So if you could pick one to help out the French, which would you pick and why?
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