Which POD helps Napoleon more?

Which POD is more beneficial to Napoleon in the long run?

1. Napoleon keeps Ferdinand on the Spanish Throne. We likely don't get the peninsular war as we know it. This saves 100,000 french troops and keeps Wellington out longer. Cons include keeping the albatross that is Spain as an ally.

2. No invasion of Russia. This keeps the grand armee from collapsing but leaves a stronger russia on his flank. It keeps the continental system from ever really working.

So if you could pick one to help out the French, which would you pick and why?
 

longsword14

Banned
2. No invasion of Russia. This keeps the grand armee from collapsing but leaves a stronger russia on his flank. It keeps the continental system from ever really working.
There was more to the Russian problem than just the Continental System, which was going to leak anyway. Loss in Russia meant Germany was lost, Austria would flip and after the loss of troops in Russia every other front would have to be stripped away. Spain sapped Napoleon away but loss in Russia was like losing a leg.
This saves 100,000 french troops and keeps Wellington out longer.
Thus could create so many butterflies that Wellesley might not even get the chance to get a secure stronghold in the Peninsula.
 
The Peninsular War might actually have been worse; the men who died in Russia were mostly raw, under less experienced officers, and were replaced in surprisingly short order for the 1813 campaign. However, Napoleon had taken the bulk of his Grande Armee trained in the Channel camps into Iberia. Most never returned, and Napoleon felt their absence dearly.
 
Which POD is more beneficial to Napoleon in the long run?

1. Napoleon keeps Ferdinand on the Spanish Throne. We likely don't get the peninsular war as we know it. This saves 100,000 french troops and keeps Wellington out longer. Cons include keeping the albatross that is Spain as an ally.

2. No invasion of Russia. This keeps the grand armee from collapsing but leaves a stronger russia on his flank. It keeps the continental system from ever really working.

So if you could pick one to help out the French, which would you pick and why?
How about yes on both? The CS was not working properly, anyway, so these wars were the wasteful attempts to fix something unfixable.
 
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