Which nations could've plausibly undergone rapid modernization, as Japan did?

19c Korea was 3% urban. There's a very good reason why Japan colonized Korea rather than the reverse.
Per the 1789 census Korea's urbanization rate was 7.8%. Obviously low compared to China, which had had an urbanization rate upwards of 14% since the late Ming, or even Japan, but still far, far higher than the 3% you mentioned. The census isn't very accurate WRT larger population, to be sure, but I don't see how you're so easily assuming that Korea was 3% urban. That would necessitate a Korean population of 19 million or more in the 19th century, which is obviously impossible considering the general circumstances.

It had limited literacy, because the monarchy had monopolized printing.
...lol no
 
Even Donghak scripture was published, so I'm not particularly inclined to believe so.

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"All publishing in Joseon was strictly controlled by the government. All metal printing presses were government property. All slaves and artisans who made books were government property. Therefore there was very little room for non-government agents to participate, from the printing to the distribution.
Joseon only published just enough to fulfill its policies; therefore books were always scarce...
The need for a bookstore was always widely recognised and was proposed multiple times. However they were never established. Even with bookstores it was determined that with such a lack of books there would barely be any circulation. The elite did not find books to be exchangeable property. While there were circulation of certain books, they were few and far between...It is found that this attitude, along with the Japanese invasions of Korea, completely broke down the culture of printing and publishing.
 

But from Books in Numbers, which is about as reliable a source as you get (academic conference explicitly focused on East Asia, prestigious university press, professors of history as authors)

There is substantial evidence that in the second half of the Choson period certain individuals or groups spent a considerable amount of time printing books, and made a living out of it [.....] Although they produced large quantities of non-Buddhist books, the monks were not the only printers the people could turn to. In some cases, as we have seen, one could take advantage of the public printing facilities available in all provincial towns. Moreover, in the late Choson period some individuals apparently owned their own wooden or metal movable type and offered their services to others. Thus, a certain Paek Ki-hwan was the owner of a font of a movable type used to print a genealogy for the Tongnae Chong lineage in 1859. Paek took his font to the house of a member of this lineage and during the setting of the types was in charge of the selection of the characters himself. Presumably the remainder of the work was done by members of the lineage (or their servants). [.....] Commercial publishing in the Choson period is often associated with the growth of sosol, popular stories [.....] The panggakpon novels which started to appear in considerable numbers from the middle of the nineteenth century onward were written in Korean, cheaply printed, and aimed at a wide audience.
 
But from Books in Numbers, which is about as reliable a source as you get (academic conference explicitly focused on East Asia, prestigious university press, professors of history as authors)

  • On "certain individuals and groups", I believe they are referring to the Silhak scholars, who were extremely fringe; the largest number of their existence never went beyond 50.
  • Genealogy records, as you may know, are considered extremely important, and their mass-printing was actually done by the government, to sell "aristocrat ancestries" in return for money. The Chunju Lee clan, the ruling family of Joseon, saw an increase in more than 500% in their number during the 1850~1875 period.
  • Sosols were mainly spread orally, through the "3-day markets" and such, which went around specific towns to sell small goods and provide entertainment such as satiric plays and, as mentioned, literature.
While I appreciate their positive outlook on late Joseon history, I don't think their historiography is widely shared and believe it's most likely nonexistent in Korea.
 
  • On "certain individuals and groups", I believe they are referring to the Silhak scholars, who were extremely fringe; the largest number of their existence never went beyond 50.
No, the book doesn't mention the silhakists at all. It does mention the sangha as particularly important in publishing - as you probably know the sangha was discredited and money-deficient in Choson Korea, which forced them to engage in unconventional activities like commercial printing. It also mentions people like Paek Ki-hwan that I quoted earlier or other commercial printers, like Jeon Ichae in Taein or Ha Gyeongryong from Jeonju, who published Chinese manuals, medical texts, 禮論, etc. In 1869 a book intended solely for women and entirely in Eonmun was published.

  • Genealogy records, as you may know, are considered extremely important, and their mass-printing was actually done by the government, to sell "aristocrat ancestries" in return for money. The Chunju Lee clan, the ruling family of Joseon, saw an increase in more than 500% in their number during the 1850~1875 period.
The government had an interest in making money by making reach non-yangban into yangban, but Paek Ki-hwan was not doing this by printing the genealogy of the Dongrae Jeongs, a yangban house; his clients were already established aristocrats.

While I appreciate their positive outlook on late Joseon history, I don't think their historiography is widely shared and believe it's most likely nonexistent in Korea.
The author of the chapter is Leiden University's Boudewijn Walraven, who, as 연합뉴스 describes,
국제 한국학 분야에서 괄목할 만한 업적을 낸 보데왼 왈라번(Boudewjin C. A. Walraven. 65) 네덜란드 라이든 대학 한국학 전공 교수가 성균관대 동아시아학술원(원장 신승운) 석좌교수로 최근 임용됐다.
신승운 원장은 "무속을 비롯한 여러 한국학 분야에서 왕성한 업적을 냈으며, 학술원이 연중 두 번 발간하는 한국학 영문잡지인 '성균 동아시아학 저널'(Sunkyun Journal of East Asian Studies) 편집위원장이기도 한 왈라번 교수를 9월1일자로 석좌교수로 초빙했다"고 10일 말했다.
IIRC Walraven was also praised in a book titled 서양인의 한국 종교 연구 as a Western scholar of Korean Buddhism and shamanism, so yeah, he isn't exactly a nobody in Korea.

Hey, and I found the Encyclopedia of Korean Culture's article on 방각본, check it out:

[정의]
민간인이 영리를 목적으로 간행한 책.
[내용]
책을 인쇄하여 파는 곳을 방사(坊肆)·서방(書坊)·서사(書肆)·서포(書鋪) 등으로 일컫던 데에서 방간본 외에 사본(肆本)·서방본·서사본·서포본이라고도 불리게 되었고, 그 시초에는 목판에 새겼으므로 방각본(坊刻本)이라 하기도 하였다.
[.....]
한편 관서에서 찍어낸 활자본은 간행 부수가 한정되어 특정 신하에게만 내사(內賜)되었고, 교서관(校書館)에서 판각한 책도 종수에 제한이 있어 일반의 수요를 충족시키기 어려웠으므로 민간에게 방간을 허용하게 된 것으로 여겨진다.
그러나 그 뒤 임진왜란, 광해군의 폭정, 이괄(李适)의 난, 정묘·병자의 호란 등 큰 재난이 잇따라서 인조 말기까지는 인쇄사업이 침체되었다가 그 기능이 회복되기 시작한 것은 17세기 중엽 이후로 여겨진다.
초기의 방간본으로는 먼저 호남지방의 완판(完板)·태인판(泰仁板)·금성판(錦城板)을 들 수 있다. 완판은 서계(西溪)·완산(完山)·완서(完西)·흥패(興沛)·완남(完南)·하경룡(河慶龍) 등의 각판을 총칭하는데, 이 가운데 현존하는 초기의 각판은 서계의 완판으로 1648년(인조 26)에 새긴 ≪사요취선 史要聚選≫을 들 수 있다.
[.....]
서울의 방간본은 상인들이 많이 모이던 중부를 중심으로 정동·무교(武橋)·모교(毛橋)·석정동(石井洞)·유동(由洞)·합동(蛤洞)·미동(渼洞)·남산동(南山洞)·광교(廣橋)·광통교(廣通橋)·동현(銅峴)·효교(孝橋)·어청교(漁靑橋)·송동(宋洞)·야동(冶洞)·자암(紫巖)·홍수동(紅樹洞) 등에서 많이 간행되었다.
서울의 방간본은 서체와 판각술이 정교한 것이 지방의 방간본과 약간 다르다. 이러한 방간본들은 차츰 목활자와 금속활자를 사용하게 되었고, 조선 후기에는 도서의 수요가 증가함에 따라 다양한 방간본을 간행함으로써 독서 인구의 확대에 크게 기여하였다.
방간본에는 ≪천자문≫·≪동몽선습≫·≪명심보감≫ 등 아동용 교재, ≪옥편≫·≪운서 韻書≫ 등의 자전류, 사서삼경 등 유학서, ≪사략 史略≫·≪동사촬요 東史撮要≫·≪통감절요 通鑑節要≫ 등의 역사서 외에 의례집, ≪간독정요 簡牘精要≫·≪천기대요 天機大要≫ 등 실용서에 이르기까지 다양한 종류가 있으며, 서민들 사이에는 소설류가 특히 인기가 있었다.
한글 서적으로는 1844년(헌종 10)의 <한양가 漢陽歌>를 비롯하여 한말에 이르는 동안 편지투·시조집 외에 40여 종의 소설 등 200여 책에 이르렀다.
So no, it's not just a Dutch professor who thinks this.
 

I was just being skeptical because, in all honesty, I have never heard of things like this. And mind you, I did do my research on this part of Korean history; at one point I read the entire 조선왕조실록 records from 1895 to 1900. My reading of several working papers and even the various highschool textbooks covering the issue also emphasised the fact that the "renaissance" of the time was mainly significant as outliers from the gradual decline of Joseon. It also doesn't help that we haven't established yet the timeframe that we're discussing this - note that after 1875 whatever remained of Korea's industrial and mercantile capability collapsed pretty rapidly and all resistance it showed towards Japan's increasing economic control were futile. Because of the above I remain skeptical on how significant Korea's publishing industry was on the grand scale of things; I should say however that I'm extremely impressed by how well-versed you seem to be on Korean history, or East Asian history in general.
 
Tokugawa Japan wasn't a medieval society.

This is a really good point, and why IMO the comparison to Ethiopia doesn't work. Ethiopia didn't have grain futures markets or mass markets for printed works of porn, let alone literacy rates as high as Japan's.

The hardest aspects about Ottoman industrialization is the Ottoman government itself, and how difficult it can potentially costly it could be to move resources around.

I doubt very much that the Balkans have the riverine transportation network of England; it's a mountainous region, after all.

Would be very interested in discussion of Ottoman social mobility, FWIW; are you thinking of a book at the time?

The thing is, the Europeans, particularly the French, couldn't not get involved in the Taiping affair.

This is true, but I do wonder if there's a way to get them to support the Taiping; they did have some supporters, and while the Taiping Rebellion was going on, they actually invaded China again.
 
not the right time range, but Iran....the US ditches the Shah, tries to encourage the democratic part of the Islamic Republic (and include the socialists reforms instead of killing them).....Iran produces a serious amount of scientific research, a lot of it very practical. when i had very diabetic problem of mold in my ear, i read an Iranian paper - rubbing alcohol mixed with vinegar works better than prescription drugs. That's how they do science - it's impressive. america would be MUCH better off with Iran than the Saudis as allies.
 
not the right time range, but Iran....the US ditches the Shah, tries to encourage the democratic part of the Islamic Republic (and include the socialists reforms instead of killing them).....Iran produces a serious amount of scientific research, a lot of it very practical. when i had very diabetic problem of mold in my ear, i read an Iranian paper - rubbing alcohol mixed with vinegar works better than prescription drugs. That's how they do science - it's impressive. america would be MUCH better off with Iran than the Saudis as allies.
The IRI isn't going to ally with America for at least the first few decades of its existence. After all the Shah and his brutal regime (not to say that what followed it wasn't brutal either) was propped up by Washington, and the existence of an American "spy ring" in Iran turned out to actually be (somewhat) true per "Documents from the US Espionage Den".
 
"Hey, doesnt Korea fit in all those categories? It has had central government for centuries longer than Japan, its got the people and resources, and-"
*quick look at map of East Asia*
"Goddammit."

Korea: "I will into stronk and independent! Will modernize and Jesus-"
Qing: "No."
Russia: "Nyet."
Japan: "Fufufufufufufufu! No." *enters Korea*
 
In Malaysia, most of the Sultanates had populations of a few hundred thousand, and before the waves of Chinese immigration in the 1850's onward the urban population was negligible in some of them. I saw a figure for Kedah which would suggest an urban population of a few thousand from a population of about 250,000 at most.

Are there any Malay countries that could possibly rise to prominence as well? Probably after bloody rebellion considering the looks of the land at the time...

If you're not afraid to tackle the immigration problem and enjoy having a higher difficulty setting, then 19th century Johor might be your choice.

Historically, the sultanate rose to prominence due to it's pepper exports (which made it one of the richest states in the Malay Peninsula) and having a series of rulers who were halfway decent at carrying out infrastructural projects. By the late 1800's the Maharajah Abu Bakar even made a few trips to Europe to gain Western knowledge and ask for his kingdom's recognition as an independent state.

However, the same Maharajah also led a flamboyant lifestyle which led him to become overweight and have bodily problems which led to his early death at 62 (And I say early because Malay Rajahs and Sultans had unusually long lifespans for the time period: Sultan Abdul Mo'min of Brunei died at age of 98, for heaven's sake!). Also, most of the pepper crop was cultivated by Chinese immigrants whose numbers very quickly overtook the Malays as the dominant ethnicity in Johor.

Butterflying Abu Bakar's death until he ensures the sultanate's independence is one good option, but there's the HUGE ethnicity problem to work out with, and there's really no easy answers to this.
 
If you're not afraid to tackle the immigration problem and enjoy having a higher difficulty setting, then 19th century Johor might be your choice.

Historically, the sultanate rose to prominence due to it's pepper exports (which made it one of the richest states in the Malay Peninsula) and having a series of rulers who were halfway decent at carrying out infrastructural projects. By the late 1800's the Maharajah Abu Bakar even made a few trips to Europe to gain Western knowledge and ask for his kingdom's recognition as an independent state.

However, the same Maharajah also led a flamboyant lifestyle which led him to become overweight and have bodily problems which led to his early death at 62 (And I say early because Malay Rajahs and Sultans had unusually long lifespans for the time period: Sultan Abdul Mo'min of Brunei died at age of 98, for heaven's sake!). Also, most of the pepper crop was cultivated by Chinese immigrants whose numbers very quickly overtook the Malays as the dominant ethnicity in Johor.

Butterflying Abu Bakar's death until he ensures the sultanate's independence is one good option, but there's the HUGE ethnicity problem to work out with, and there's really no easy answers to this.
Don't they still have ridiculously long lifespans? I think the current Sultan of Kedah is in his 90s or something. Do you know anything about how the other Malay sultanates were run? I remember reading something about Kedah being unusual that the Sultan was in an unusually strong position internally, owning most of the land or something like that. However, I don't see Kedah as a good candidate because of its vulnerable position next to Siam and the really, really low rate of urbanization. Again, it was something like 2% before immigration from China. I'll pull up the article I read about it in Jstor if there's any further interest.
 
I don't know if anyone has said this but the Maratha Empire?
Contained all the core parts of India, had a disciplined and strong enough army to contain the European Colonial powers, the Sikh Misls provided a friendly ally and buffer state between them and the hostile Durranis. They could even keep the Mughals as a puppet state to appease Indian Muslims.

Either avoid the 3rd Battle of Panipat, which sent the Marathas into a downward spiral, OR keep Madavrao I alive, the Peshwa who prematurely died, and launched the Maratha Resurrection, which restored Maratha supremacy following Panipat.

If Madavrao stays alive they could easily develop an industrial economy due to India's resources and manpower. Developing a navy would be harder as India's most strategic posts would be controlled by Westerners, but it's not implausible for the Marathas to remove at least majority of them, with the exception of either one of the British or French.
 
This is true, but I do wonder if there's a way to get them to support the Taiping; they did have some supporters, and while the Taiping Rebellion was going on, they actually invaded China again.

What I've read on the European intervention in China focused mainly on the British, where a lot of the steps towards intervention come down to luck; the specific personalities assigned to the lower Yangtze, like Frederick Bruce and Admiral Hope, drummed up war outside the wishes of he Cabinet, and in Parliament there was support for the Taiping as the 'National party' of China, standing up to those venal tartars in Beijing. Thomas Taylor Meadows was a consular officer in Shanghai, and he had previously authored a book explaining peasant rebellion as the main mechanism of political change in China; to him, the Taiping were on the right side of history, and the Mandate of Heaven had ended for the Qing.

At least for the British, it's the American Civil War that makes intervention a necessity; Lincoln's blockade makes the American south inaccessible as a market, so Chinese tea the British were going to sell in America had to be dumped on the domestic market, while cotton textiles become so expensive that the Chinese won't buy them.

For the first year of overlap, though, the British strongly considered recognizing belligerent status for the Taiping; this would have made intervention against them, if not illegal, extremely immoral, while also making it legal to sell them weapons.

Li Xiucheng actually sent letters to the British consulate in Shanghai before his first attempt at taking the city, stating that he had no intention of conquering the foreign quarter, and that those buildings should raise yellow flags so his troops would know to stop. However, Frederick Bruce considered reading those letters to be a violation of British neutrality, so they were left unopened, and Li's army was repulsed by massed British and French artillery. In the short term, this won them some international sympathy, especially after the brutality of French troops got out, but in the long term, it denied them direct access to the foreigners, and much of the decision to intervene OTL was made with completely flawed information, which direct access to the Taiping might correct.

Besides the decision of the foreigners to intervene, individual points of Taiping doctrine also served to alienate possible bases of support. Hong Rengan put Confucius back on the Taiping examinations, but he was only on the scene for the last four years, so it was too late to keep from alienating the scholar-gentry that rallied to the dynasty's banner. The might also have won more peasant support had land redistribution not also come with the price of total gender separatism.

If we remove ourselves from OTL a little further, and imagine Hong Xiuquan leading a more Chinese millenarian rebellion, without the pretense of Christianity, they'd probably be much better off; most foreign opposition was based on the blasphemy of the Taiping, while their support was based on a kind of sympathy with their nationalism. Affirmation of traditional Chinese culture would have divided the scholar-gentry, and more conventional social order might have brought in even more peasants into the fledgling dynasty.
 
For the first year of overlap, though, the British strongly considered recognizing belligerent status for the Taiping; this would have made intervention against them, if not illegal, extremely immoral, while also making it legal to sell them weapons.
I most definitely have not read up enough on the Taiping, but I recall that while the British were more ambiguous, the French were more firmly anti-Taiping and French persuasion was part of the reason the British did not recognize the regime in the end.
 
Okay, before this conversation goes any further, what do we have so far? Who is still able?

EDIT: or rather, what do you have so far. I couldn't have thought of all this if I tried.
 
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