The Haiti suggestion sounds awesome. I almost want to try my hand at a Haiti-wank, just for fun. Or barring that, since I am focused on another timeline right now, would love to read one.
Like, say, Tamil Nadu?
Goodness, can we focus on this? Is this possible? Can India break free and become a superpower?
(If I can now have both my parent nations become 19th century major powers, it would make me so happy!)
Can Korea do it!? Oh my that may put a dent in Japan's own modernization...
Which South American country that is likely is the least European in its customs?
Also, I think that whichever nation manages it first may do the colonialism bit on its neighbours, as ironic as that may sound, citing some Pan- South American identity. Bonus points if the leader is of native descent. Yikes, a great South American power raging across the continent...
Except that Ming China alone had an urbanization rate far exceeding Japan (13% or above) and that literacy rates were not particularly higher in Japan than in China.In 1850, 11% of Japan lived in cities with 10,000 people or more, around the same as in Britain in 1700, a society on the cusp of economic revolution. Literacy rates were also quite high.
If the POD is relatively recent, say late-18c or later, then the answer is none, except the Western ones and Japan.
Explanation: the Industrial Revolution came about because wages in 18c Britain and the Low Countries were high and fuel costs in Britain were low, making it (barely) profitable to invest in labor-saving machines. In the 19c, wages were decent in most of the rest of the European core; it wouldn't have been profitable to invent the Industrial Revolution from scratch with (say) mid-19c wages in those countries, but it was profitable to import and tinker with British innovations and then improve them to the point of becoming better, as was the case with the German chemical industry. US wages were generally on a par with British wages.
Elsewhere in the world, wages just weren't this high. In China they may have been this high in the Song era, but not in the late Ming and Qing eras. Rural wages were high in late Ming Jiangnan, but urban wages were at subsistence, unlike in London or Amsterdam or Antwerp. Delhi was rich at the height of Mughal power, but by the 18c it dropped to subsistence, same as with the rest of India.
Japan was an exception. Contrary to popular thought, it did not modernize from scratch. It was already a wealthy country at the time of Commodore Perry's arrival. It's not so easy to compare its living standards to Western ones, since the baskets of goods consumed didn't overlap much, but on metrics that usually correlate with development, Japan did well. In 1850, 11% of Japan lived in cities with 10,000 people or more, around the same as in Britain in 1700, a society on the cusp of economic revolution. Literacy rates were also quite high. One of the inventions of the Second Industrial Revolution, surgical anesthesia, originated in early-19c Japan.
Anywhere else, industrialization would have required extensive state intervention. (Yes, Japan had intervention as well, but it was overlaid on an already wealthy economy by preindustrial standards.) That would have been difficult - state-led modernization was in multiple cases, e.g. Russia and the Ottoman Empire, an excuse for the monarchy to clamp down on independent interests. It also would've required the kind of industrial policy that pissed off already wealthy foreign powers, as in Egypt, leading them to impose unequal treaties and reduce those countries back to exporting raw materials.
References: Robert Allen's papers on premodern wages in various cities, e.g. this one for the UK, US, Egypt, and India in the 19c.
Japan was an exception. Contrary to popular thought, it did not modernize from scratch. It was already a wealthy country at the time of Commodore Perry's arrival. It's not so easy to compare its living standards to Western ones, since the baskets of goods consumed didn't overlap much, but on metrics that usually correlate with development, Japan did well. In 1850, 11% of Japan lived in cities with 10,000 people or more, around the same as in Britain in 1700, a society on the cusp of economic revolution. Literacy rates were also quite high. One of the inventions of the Second Industrial Revolution, surgical anesthesia, originated in early-19c Japan.
On top of this are existing issues people have already mentioned. How urbanised the country was (a big disqualification for the heavily rural and underpopulated Malay states), literacy rates, etc...
And the Philippines was colonised before almost any other country in Asia. The most populous parts of Indonesia (Java) were dominated relatively early too. In Malaysia, most of the Sultanates had populations of a few hundred thousand, and before the waves of Chinese immigration in the 1850's onward the urban population was negligible in some of them. I saw a figure for Kedah which would suggest an urban population of a few thousand from a population of about 250,000 at most.*looks at the 2.1 million people in the Philippines c. 1823 to Japan's 26.6 million*
damn. hm...
And the Philippines was colonised before almost any other country in Asia. The most populous parts of Indonesia (Java) were dominated relatively early too. In Malaysia, most of the Sultanates had populations of a few hundred thousand, and before the waves of Chinese immigration in the 1850's onward the urban population was negligible in some of them. I saw a figure for Kedah which would suggest an urban population of a few thousand from a population of about 250,000 at most.
I'm trying to see how the Philippines could develop on such a path that it could become a regional power at least.
Would an Irish diaspora help? I'm trying to consider all angles and possibilities.
Why the Irish in particular? The Chinese, I'm sure, would be very happy to move over.
Do it, its great.I've been meaning to read Malê rising!
Bolivia, by far.Which South American country that is likely is the least European in its customs?
Yeah, then you want Peru. Was a Regional Power during the Guano Boom, had a large amount of immigration and indigenous peoples (I say immigration as if its important because South America was seriously underpopulated. Peru had in 1900 a whopping 3.7 million. Compare to Japan's 44 million. Even if you start up the demographic transition, it would take a good century to catch up to big leagues.)Also, I think that whichever nation manages it first may do the colonialism bit on its neighbours, as ironic as that may sound, citing some Pan- South American identity. Bonus points if the leader is of native descent. Yikes, a great South American power raging across the continent...
Ethiopia could probably do it but you need a way to further transition passed the feudalism that it was in during the late 1800s and build up native industry. Preferably arms and rails to keep the central government controlling the place and commerce to flow smoothly. Tariffs help out a lot.Ones that I personally really want proven are Ethiopia and Haiti, because I admire those two nations greatly and would love to see them rise to prominence or even colonial power.
I'm sure that this has been done before but since I found nothing, I decided I would pose the question again. I'm really interested in other "proofs against social supremacy" occurring in unlikely places (from the POV of the European colonial empires, that is!) and other such restorations like the one that occurred in Japan, and how/where else they could've happened. I know Japan is a very unique location, but surely other avenues to restoration can be discovered- that the Japanese did it proves the fact.
So I'm asking the experts here: which regions, people, or polities were plausibly able to undergo massive modernization projects in much the same way and I suppose around the same time as the Japanese did, barring a few decades in either direction?
Ethiopia tried their hardest, and gave a good show in the Italoa-Abyssinian Wars, but it clearly wasn't "enough".