Shameless plugin for Male Rising admittedly, but Nigeria.
I've been meaning to read Malê rising!
Haiti's in a really bad spot, particularly after the 1840s. They can easily do better than OTL, maybe punch above their weight, but it won't be an easy road due to the sheer amount of international hostility from the great powers.
But since we're talking New World, this opens far greater possibilities. Places like Mexico, Peru, Colombia, and the Dominican Republic can all be 'modern' nations that keep up with the West. I won't say Brazil and the rest of the Southern Cone since they were one of the most developed countries at the turn of the century; they just lagged behind.
Which South American country that is likely is the least European in its customs?
Also, I think that whichever nation manages it first may do the colonialism bit on its
neighbours, as ironic as that may sound, citing some Pan- South American identity. Bonus points if the leader is of native descent. Yikes, a great South American power raging across the continent...
I'm still wondering if the Philippines was merchant-oriented enough (or at least could become merchant-oriented enough) to industrialize at the same rate as Japan did, if not sooner. Or if the Philippines has any of the other factors necessary to do so. (I mean, aside from the resources, which can be taken by annexing parts of the Dutch East Indies.)
Are there any Malay countries that could possibly rise to prominence as well? Probably after bloody rebellion considering the looks of the land at the time...
So, so far we can confirm Iran, the Osmanli, and at least
someone in Latin America could do it easily. From Malê rising we know that Nigeria can be done at all (which delights me to no end!)
Ones that I personally really want proven are Ethiopia and Haiti, because I admire those two nations greatly and would love to see them rise to prominence or even colonial power.
Korea and the Philippines remain distinct possibilities. We need to discuss these.
Which nations can actually become superpowers though? Not just modernize but actually start doing crazy imperialism like the Japanese did?