Japan capturing all China except for Tibet and maybe Xinjiang and Germany to the uralsDefine "fall." Do you mean the country's government surrendering to the attacker or the country's territory being absorbed by the attacker on a more-or-less permanent basis? If the former, then China. It's not that hard to imagine the Japanese capturing Chinese leadership and forcing a surrender. If the latter, then the Soviet Union. There's just no way that the Japanese are going to hold down the Chinese population for that long as some sort of colony.
Japan capturing all China except for Tibet and maybe Xinjiang and Germany to the urals
Both are so incredibly unlikely it might as well be impossible.
Stalin dies, ensuing power struggle heavily weakens the CCCP. Germany could get up to the Urals.
No Pearl Harbor, US doesn't enter war. Japan focuses its attention on China in favor of the Pacific, tries to stir up tensions between communists and the Chinese government. Taking over the entirety of China is not out of the question.
Both unlikely but not impossible.
I'm skeptical of the idea that the Japanese conquest of China was out-and-out ASB. Unlikely, yes, but stranger things have happened.
Let's look at what is common knowledge about the Sino-Japanese Conflict:
-Japanese forces were better-equipped, better-trained and more coordinated than Chinese forces. Thus they tended to defeat Chinese forces (with some notable exceptions) in tactical combat.
-Chinese forces suffered from fluctuating morale throughout the campaigns, but did have greater reason to be motivated (defenders' advantage).
-Japanese forces proved with their conduct throughout the campaign that virtually nothing was out of the question in terms of cruelty inflicted on the Chinese civilian populace. Whilst this often caused the Chinese to resist more passionately, there is a point where the majority of Chinese would lose hope and submit, even if it takes decades.
-Yes, it is a distinct possibility that the Japanese could go completely bankrupt in the process of occupying China, but this could be counteracted by letting go of unprofitable peripheral regions (East Turkestan; Tibet; possibly Yunnan), as well as instituting puppet governments like they did OTL in Manchukuo and Menguguo, as well as China Proper. If Japan can maintain integration with the international economic order, the West will likely overlook Japanese abuses, particularly given their own colonial actions and the allure of cheap goods from Chinese workers who are essentially slave labour.
Don't forget though that OTL there was a large chinese force which, for most of the conflict, did not actively fight the japanese - Mao's communists. If the chinese situation significantly worsens, we might well see less infighting between the two chinese factions.
Russia being conquered was impossible. More than Sea Lion, honestly.Stalin dies, ensuing power struggle heavily weakens the CCCP. Germany could get up to the Urals.
No Pearl Harbor, US doesn't enter war. Japan focuses its attention on China in favor of the Pacific, tries to stir up tensions between communists and the Chinese government. Taking over the entirety of China is not out of the question.
Both unlikely but not impossible.
Russia being conquered was impossible. More than Sea Lion, honestly.
So is China being conquered. The Japanese invaded Pearl Harbour partly because they weren't seeing so much progress in China and were desperate to buy themselves enough time.
I'd disagree with that evaluation, although I'd freely admit that I'm not an expert on the Japanese in WWII. AFAIK, a large part of the strike south strategy was the navy scheming politically to avoid losing funding and resources that were going to the mainland. They managed to get other politicians on board that the Europeans wouldn't be able to resist. They were largely right, with the exception that the US put up a much bigger fight than was expected.
Obviously China was a near to medium-term economic loss, but I believe the rationale behind the attempted conquest of China would be that it would make Japan (in the long-term) the unchallenged juggernaut of the Asia-Pacific region. I still think that the best-case scenario for the Chinese without the WAllies was a stalemate, with future collapse being fairly likely.
It does seem impossible. Then again, Britainheld sway over 300 million Indians.Japan simply doesn't have enough manpower to effectively occupy all of China. Like every foreign rule over China throughout history it would require a loyal Chinese contingent to do most of the heavy lifting. Unfortunately for Japan the IJA's modus operandi of reckless and wanton cruelty prevented such a contingent from coming into being; Manchukuo and Wang Jingwei's government weren't going to cut it. Genghis Khan and Nurhaci could be every bit as cruel as the IJA, but they knew when to show mercy and make use of local talent.
It does seem impossible. Then again, Britainheld sway over 300 million Indians.