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Which move is better for German Kaiser Wilhelm II in 1888?:

1. Keep the alliance with Austria-Hungary and try eventually dismantling Russia with the help of Austria-Hungary.

2. Dump Austria-Hungary, ally with Russia, and try eventually dismantling Austria-Hungary with the help of Russia.

As for me, I initially thought that #2 was the better move here, but I'm gradually becoming more convinced that #1 is the better move here. Basically, if Germany and Russia jointly partition Austria-Hungary, then a lot of Catholic Austrian Germans might be extremely pissed off at you for dismantling their empire (where they were in charge--in contrast to Germany, where they'll have to fight for political power and prominence) and giving parts of it to various Austrian enemies (Italy, Russia, Serbia, and Romania). In turn, this might make integrating these Austrian Germans very difficult.

Meanwhile, if I will continue the alliance with Austria-Hungary, I would have a chance of dismantling Russia and creating a chain of friendly, pro-German vassal states in Eastern Europe. In turn, this would allow me to turn my desired Mitteleuropa vision (which is more equal than what Imperial Germany actually envisioned) into reality. :) Plus, even if Germany and Austria-Hungary will lose our war with Russia (and probably France as well, due to it likely being a Russian ally), Austria-Hungary will probably get broken up and thus Germany would still have a chance of eventually annexing Austria--but with the Austrian Germans begging to join Germany rather than being extremely resentful of Germany.

Anyway, any thoughts on this?
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