Which move is better for German Kaiser Wilhelm II in 1888?

Which move is better for German Kaiser Wilhelm II in 1888?


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CaliGuy

Banned
It was more a case of the Germans being worried an increased role of French finance in the A-H Empire would undermine German influence. One of the perceived selling points of MittleEuropa was that it would bind A-H more firmly to Germany.

OK.

Also, where can I read more about this German fear?

How? Initial German support for A-H had a realistic expectation a military conflict would be localized - the later support Russia/France provide Serbia was with the eager expectation of a European wide conflict.

Weren't Germany's leadership winning to risk a general European war based on the belief that, if was is to come, it should come sooner rather than later, though?

The ongoing activities and expectations of the Serbian regime were simply not compatible with the status quo.

True; however, Germany could have told Austria-Hungary to accept the Serbian response to A-H's ultimatum and see where things went from there. Indeed, I think that even Kaiser Bill was pleased with Serbia's response to this ultimatum.

With the benefit of hindsight, Germany could have thrown its only continental ally under a bus and hope for: continued Serbian and Russian belligerence to alienate the British, the French socialists to slash French military budgets and undermine French-Russian military understandings and A-H to increase military spending to be comparable to its peers. Would those things happen before Russia or one of its minions initiates a war in circumstances less favourable than 1914?

I'm not sure that having Austria-Hungary accept Serbia's response to its ultimatum would have been a case of "throwing Austria-Hungary bus the bus," though.

Also, Yes, there was certainly the risk of war occurring on less favorable terms; indeed, this helps explain the German fatalism in regards to this during this time.
 

BooNZ

Banned
Also, where can I read more about this German fear?
Sorry, in respect of French financial activities in the A-H Empire, it was in a in university library many moons ago. I don't think it is a secret that rapidly growing economies/industries have a strong appetite for capital and A-H was growing rapidly before the war. It is also no secret France had a relative abundance of finance available and frequently pursued cheque book diplomacy. Conversely, Germany re-invested the majority of its available capital in its own industrial/economic growth. The Germans probably viewed French investment strategies with suspicion and annoyance rather than fear.

More recent reading of online sources on MittelEuropa identified German concern regarding future A-H alignment in a post war world - win or lose.

Weren't Germany's leadership winning to risk a general European war based on the belief that, if was is to come, it should come sooner rather than later, though?
I think it is Conrad who is routinely quoted as saying something similar, but it is a sentiment that was expressed by the military leaders of all continental powers at the time. The difference was German and A-H militaries did not ordinarily have the same level of influence over their peacetime leaders as their French or Russian counterparts.

True; however, Germany could have told Austria-Hungary to accept the Serbian response to A-H's ultimatum and see where things went from there. Indeed, I think that even Kaiser Bill was pleased with Serbia's response to this ultimatum.
In context, Wilhelm also suggested Belgrade would need to be occupied to ensure compliance, because the Serbs could not be trusted to keep their word. The Serbian behavior following the assassination supports this assessment. The Serbs made no effort to thoroughly investigate Serbian links to the assassination or assist A-H efforts regarding the same.

I'm not sure that having Austria-Hungary accept Serbia's response to its ultimatum would have been a case of "throwing Austria-Hungary bus the bus," though.
A-H humiliation would have been prolonged as Serbia inevitably reneged on each and every point, with Russia playing the role of proud helicopter mum.

Also, Yes, there was certainly the risk of war occurring on less favorable terms; indeed, this helps explain the German fatalism in regards to this during this time.
I think Moltke's mental health also explains a bit. With the benefit of hindsight, I believe Russian would have struggled to get any British or French support for its Balkan adventurism after 1914, so Germany telling A-H to suck it up would probably have been the smart play.

I guess there are some parallels with the naval race. Germany was entirely within its rights to build a fleet and/or support its long term ally, but German interests would have been better served by biding its time.
 
Looking at some responses here might I suggest that people look more at the 1866 war with Austria 22 years previous to 1888 and less at WW1 26 years later?

Was there a worthwhile AH where Austria wins the 1866 War?
 
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