Which is the most probable GURPS Dixie?

I kinda like 4, even if only because it has the USA and CSA as allies which is something that never happens in TLs. Though the rest of it doesn't make much sense, if Mexico's an empire wouldn't they be allied with France? And wouldn't that kinda negate a German alliance?

With a 1844 POD who knows if Mexico becomes an empire the same way as IOTL, or even if "empire" here is just an informal way to note that Mexico here is still a lot bigger than IOTL (kinda like how somebody in that TL USA would refer to ours as an "American empire").
 
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