Which Germany Would Be Stronger Today: One Which Won WW1 in 1918 Or One Which Won WW2 In 1940

No. Hitler would still need large forces in in the East to occupy the land and keep eye on Soviets. Stalin OTOH has time to rebuilt his forces and train new recruits properly. IOTL Soviet Union had army of greenhorns every year due to need to compensate heavy loses in hurry with masses of untrained, raw recruits.

The manpower and resource situation of the Soviet Union precluded such.

Food:

The Bread of Affliction: The Food Supply in the USSR during World War II, by William Moskoff -

"The central fact behind the increased importance of the collective farm market was the drastic drop in food production, especially in 1942 and 1943, and the diminished proportion that went to the civilians. In 1943 overall agricultural production was only 38 percent of the 1940 level. In 1943, however, the Red Army began to recapture agricultural areas of the Ukraine, Belorussia, and the Caucasus and by the next year, 1944, agricultural output had risen to 54 percent of the 1940 level. Not surprisingly, the collapse of the food economy led to astonishing increases in prices. The most rapid rate [Emphasis by author] of increase in prices took place in 1942 and began to taper off in mid-1943."

The Soviet Economy and the Red Army, 1930-1945, by Walter Scott Dunn -

"By November of 1941, 47% of Soviet cropland was in German hands. The Germans had 38% of the grain farmland, 84% of the sugar land, 38% of the area devoted to beef and dairy cattle, and 60% of the land used to produce hogs. The Russians turned to the east and brought more land into cultivation. In the fall of 1941, the autumn and winter crops increased sharply in the eastern area. But despite all efforts, farm yields dropped from 95.5 million tons of grain in 1940 to 29.7 million tons in 1942. Production of cattle and horses dropped to less than half of prewar levels and hogs to one fifth. By 1942, meat and dairy production shrank to half the 1940 total and sugar to only 5%. Farm production in 1942 and 1943 dropped to 38% and 37% of 1940 totals."

Food production in 1943 was actually lower than in 1942 slightly, due to the failure of the potato crop in the Urals, despite the recovery of the North Caucasus and the East Bank Ukraine; the recovery of these territories was the only reason why mass starvation didn't totally breakout at that point even though mass death was being reported, particularly among factory workers. Rations were cut at the lowest possible amount and the only thing keeping the Red Army fed at this juncture was American Lend Lease, as told according to Hunger and War: Food Provisioning in the Soviet Union During World War II. In the event of separate peace, those American supplies will be lost and the Soviet state will be unlikely to survive the coming winter without Ukraine and said supplies.

Production:

A review of production vis-a-vis the Soviet Union and the Reich will find that the Reich consistently outproduced the USSR, which makes sense give the disparities of steel and coal production between the two. More critically for our purposes, however, is the specific production totals of the Soviets, which I shall highlight by selecting the year 1943:

Germany/USSR

1943:
Tanks and SP guns: 12,063 / 24,092
Armored cars: 806 / 1,820
Half-tracks: 16,964 / 0
Trucks: 109,483 / 45,545
Cars: 34,478 / 2,546
Locomotives: 5,243 / 43
Train cars: 66,263 / 108

As you can see here, while the Soviets maintained an advantage in things like tanks and armored cars, their production of trucks, half-tracks, cars, locomotives, and train cars was negligible or non-existent. This can be explained by Lend Lease, which in the event of a separate peace the Soviets will be, again, shorted. Given that it would take a long time to retool their machines tools, that 25% of said machine tools during the war were of American origin (Whole factories were shipped to the USSR), and the limits of their steel and coal output, it is doubtful they could ever meet their material needs especially given that IOTL the Germans managed to destroy the entirety of their production in 1943 and nearly did so again in 1944.

Raw Materials:

The loss of the Ukraine and other occupied areas had engendered shortages of coal (The Donbass was home to roughly 60% of Soviet output by itself), aluminum (Main Soviet facility was along the Dnieper, about 60-80% of production), iron ore (60% of production), steel (50% of production), electric power (30% of output), manganese ore (30% of production), and nickel (30% of production). Overall output of the machinery and metal goods sector had fallen by 40%. In addition, the USSR was also unable to meet the demand for copper, tin, zinc, lead, aluminum, and nickel with remaining sources; Lend Lease was sufficient to meet all of these demands except for aluminum and nickel. Antimony, tungsten, cobalt, vanadium, molybdenum, tin, and magnesium were also almost entirely lacking. In short, there is no way, even presuming the industrial base was there for it, that the USSR could resume the war from a lack of raw materials alone.

Manpower:

Two reports that I am aware of were prepared for Stalin on the manpower situation over the course of the conflict, the first in September of 1942 and the second in February, 1943. The second report is summarized here:

The second report from Tschadenko submitted on 14 February 1943, situation as of 1.1.43:

In Army, Navy, NKVD troops - 10 947 000 (*) men plus 851 000 in hospitals
class of 1925 in process of call-up - 817 000
recruits transferred to industry work - 2 541 000
discharged or on leave for medical reasons - 982 000
nationalities exempt from military service - 250 000
irrevocable causalities - 5 950 000
lost on occupied territory - 5 631 000 + 965 000 (classes of 1924-1925)
A remainder (not called up yet) - 3 724 576 (of them about 2.5 million reserved in economy)

GULAG, NKPS troops and other minor military seem to be forgotten

(*) Breakdown of military:
On the front - 6 191 350 men
Far East - 1 131 696
internal military districts - 1 932 995 (including 1 422 659 in replacement, training units, and military schools)
others - 744 901 (reserves, units in transfer, airborne forces, separate air force and air defense elements)
Total Red Army - 10 000 942
About 946 000 in Navy and NKVD (calculated from the difference)

Those data were not necessary accurate and must contain some guesstimates and double counting, still they provide the general idea.

So in general, the Soviets had about ~3.7 Million left to call up, of whom 2.5 Million were needed to keep the economy going and most of the rest were Central Asian natives, whom were not exactly ideal to call up due to reliability issues. Even if they do call them up, that's just an additional 1.2 Million, which for reference is essentially the casualties incurred at Kursk and Smolensk in 1943 alone.
 
I doubt it. Hitler is likely to be succeeded by someone crueler and eviler than him who is less paranoid.

No, he won't, Goring was Hitler's legal successor. And it was not only done in some secret document that Goring's opponents could "lose" or make sore its never read. This was flatout said by Hitler in his very public declaration of war against Poland where he said Goring would succeed him and that the Germans would have to owe the same loyalty and obedience as to him, there is no way for Goring to not succeed Hitler.
 

samcster94

Banned
No, he won't, Goring was Hitler's legal successor. And it was not only done in some secret document that Goring's opponents could "lose" or make sore its never read. This was flatout said by Hitler in his very public declaration of war against Poland, there is no way for Goring to not succeed Hitler.
Well, I can easily imagine some other group of Nazis try to overthrow him(they hated each other) even if they fail.
 
WW1 Germany by a ton --- it would be better with a win in 16 but in 18 i think they would be in a very strong position :

1. Russia a disaster - revolution but will have lost its bread basket, much of its industry, and a lot of its people ---
2. So Germany is much more secure in the east with captive markets, allies which would tie closely to Germany (Poland, Baltic states, Ukraine, Georgia), and bases to attack critical USSR or Russian key areas (Leningrad, Oil fields, transportation networks).
3.

Germany probably helps put down a communist revolution in Russia. A non-communist Russia would be a threat to the Germany but a communist state in Russia presented both the risk of war and civil insurrection. In fact, I could easily imagine a scenario where Russia's borders, following a failed or partially successful revolution, look like their modern borders.
 
If the WW2 Germany got nuclear weapons and the US also had nukes like in our timeline, you would see a Cold War between America and the Reich which would probably ensure the Reich's survival unless it crumbled from within like the USSR did.
 
If the WW2 Germany got nuclear weapons and the US also had nukes like in our timeline, you would see a Cold War between America and the Reich which would probably ensure the Reich's survival unless it crumbled from within like the USSR did.
Thing is, WW2 Germany had a screwed-up scientific community. Japan was probably closer to getting the bomb than them because they at least hadn't already decided it was impossible.

WW1 Germany by leaps and bounds.
 
90 percent of the human population would prefer a Germany that won ww1 over Germany winning winning WW2. For starter a ww1 Victor would not slaughter enemy civilians
 

samcster94

Banned
Thing is, WW2 Germany had a screwed-up scientific community. Japan was probably closer to getting the bomb than them because they at least hadn't already decided it was impossible.

WW1 Germany by leaps and bounds.
I think they had their post office trying to develop nukes IIRC among multiple other programs. Their V2 rockets were notorious for missing as well.
 
Goering (as far as I understand) was still a fanatic, a rational one, but still a fanatic. Though it is possible that his brother, whom he loved, might be able to keep Goering restrained enough to pull back actions like the Holocaust and the violent antisemitism which made Germany an outcast in the international community
Goering was by no stretch of the imagination a nice man and was happy to benefit from the expropriation of Jewish property but he never displayed any great personal hatred of Jews or desire to exterminate them. He is on record as having intervened several times to save prominent Jews and get them out of the country -his Munich art and antique dealer and a leading orchestral conductor. Can't see him looking for a Wannsee conference or an extermination programme. Probably wouldn't reverse expulsion of Jews but I don't see him attempting extermination. No benefit to him and costly and demands a lot of resources.
 
Well, I can easily imagine some other group of Nazis try to overthrow him(they hated each other) even if they fail.

I have to imagine most of Hitlers upper circle is getting purged, or at the least sidelined, the moment Goring is sworn in. The group certainly seemed to hate each other for the most part, and I can easily see Himmler at the very least going the same way as Rohm half a decade earlier, for much the same reasons.
 
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