Since there was no way to win in a attrition war, the Confederacy had to use its (at least innital) military superiority, especially in officers, to defeat the Union. There were some Civil War battles that are considered key or turning points, like Gettysburg, Vickysburg, and Antietam. The CSA HAD to win several of these battles (if not all) to win the war and achieve independence. With that in mind, which battles would be the minimum necessary to achieve Victory by either breaking the Union Spirit or getting a foreign intervention ?
Which battles did the Confederacy needed to win to assure their secession ?
- Thread starter Antonio the Komnenoi
- Start date
Well, if some of those happened, others wouldn't happen. If there was a Victory in Shiloh it might not happen a battle at Vickysburg. If there is a defeat in Fredericksburg, there might happen none of the others.
I named some with the belief that they could lead to a Confederate victory. The follow up victory would be the one to bring about independence.
Chattanooga, is probably the one that is not mentioned because it butterflies Atlanta. If the summer of 1864 is fought in Tennessee rather than Georgia, I think Union Morale breaks.
Chattanooga, is probably the one that is not mentioned because it butterflies Atlanta. If the summer of 1864 is fought in Tennessee rather than Georgia, I think Union Morale breaks.
Skallagrim
Banned
Ideally for them, the Confederates would have to win First Manassas (July 21, 1861) decisively, thus setting the tone for the Eastern Theatre. If that then proceeds roughly the way it did in OTL up to Second Manassas (August 28-30, 1862), it will very much seem like the Confederates are going strong. This will lead to yet more of the same (overly) cautious hesitation on the Union's part. After that, have butterflied culminate in complete surprise at Battle of Antietam (September 17, 1862) as was intended, leading to a clear Confederate victory. [Obviously, I'm killing butterflies here; assume a similar but not identical set of battles occurring.]
That's the Eastern theatre. In the West, I don't think Shiloh would be enough. Again, ideally for the Confederates, they'd have to dedicate themselves to striking hard, and preventing the OTL Union victories at Fort Henry (February 6, 1862) and Fort Donelson (February 11-16, 1862). This would deny the Union its OTL control of the Tennessee and Cumberland Rivers. No fall of Nashville shortly thereafter. In an analogue to Shiloh (April 6-7, 1862) the Confederates should beat back the Union decisively. Also, A.S. Johnston should survive, since losing him was a big hit. This keeps the Confederates able to hold the line, and (combined with the lack of Union control of the rivers) prevents the fall of Memphis.
Finally, and this may well be the hardest to achieve, the fall of New Orleans must be prevented. Even if you keep the line in the Western Theatre up North, the war is lost as soon as the Union controls the mouth of the Mississippi. Once that happens, you may as well surrender and try to negotiate a deal where you publicly denounce secession as a mistake (and illegal) in return for blanket amnesty-- something Lincoln was more than willing to offer. So you need to ensure Farragut fails to take the city, no matter the cost.
At that point, it's just a matter of waiting it out in the West and South, and keeping up the pressure in the East. The ATL Antietam victory would bolster the Confederates and prevent the Emancipation Proclamation (since Lincoln was waiting for a victory to announce it). With the Confederates being perceived as more dangerous than in OTL, the invasion of the North would look like a success. A Fredericksburg or Chancellorsville analogue on Northern soil would be within reach, and once that is achieved, it becomes the decisive battlefield victory that Lee wished gettysburg to be in OTL. With this string of Confederate successes and Union failures, you may except diplomatic recognition of the Confederacy by Britain and/or France at the close of 1862.
After that, no more stupid risks. Fall back a bit, dig in, prepare your defensive positions and offer whoever recognises you formidably lucrative trade deals... just so long as their ships come pick up the goods at your ports. Because then, Lincoln will presumably be faced with the option of ending the blockade, or firing on European vessels. And that's when he's lost the war. Peace negotiations by summer '63, definitive treaty before the year is out.
To be clear: this demands improbable amounts of luck for the CSA. It would require the Confederates to win six more battles than in OTL (First Manassas, Antietam, Fort Henry, Fort Donelson, Shiloh, New Orleans), which would in turn prevent several more battles that the CSA lost on OTL (Memphis, Stones River, Vicksburg...) from even taking place. That those ATL victories would prevent those subsequent OTL defeats is realistic, but six extra victories to begin with is a tall order. Not ASB, but very unlikely. Few people are that lucky. But the simple fact is: anything less would not be sufficient to make the Confederates look like total winners and the Union like total losers... and that precise impression is a prerequisite for European recognition of the CSA's independence.
That's the Eastern theatre. In the West, I don't think Shiloh would be enough. Again, ideally for the Confederates, they'd have to dedicate themselves to striking hard, and preventing the OTL Union victories at Fort Henry (February 6, 1862) and Fort Donelson (February 11-16, 1862). This would deny the Union its OTL control of the Tennessee and Cumberland Rivers. No fall of Nashville shortly thereafter. In an analogue to Shiloh (April 6-7, 1862) the Confederates should beat back the Union decisively. Also, A.S. Johnston should survive, since losing him was a big hit. This keeps the Confederates able to hold the line, and (combined with the lack of Union control of the rivers) prevents the fall of Memphis.
Finally, and this may well be the hardest to achieve, the fall of New Orleans must be prevented. Even if you keep the line in the Western Theatre up North, the war is lost as soon as the Union controls the mouth of the Mississippi. Once that happens, you may as well surrender and try to negotiate a deal where you publicly denounce secession as a mistake (and illegal) in return for blanket amnesty-- something Lincoln was more than willing to offer. So you need to ensure Farragut fails to take the city, no matter the cost.
At that point, it's just a matter of waiting it out in the West and South, and keeping up the pressure in the East. The ATL Antietam victory would bolster the Confederates and prevent the Emancipation Proclamation (since Lincoln was waiting for a victory to announce it). With the Confederates being perceived as more dangerous than in OTL, the invasion of the North would look like a success. A Fredericksburg or Chancellorsville analogue on Northern soil would be within reach, and once that is achieved, it becomes the decisive battlefield victory that Lee wished gettysburg to be in OTL. With this string of Confederate successes and Union failures, you may except diplomatic recognition of the Confederacy by Britain and/or France at the close of 1862.
After that, no more stupid risks. Fall back a bit, dig in, prepare your defensive positions and offer whoever recognises you formidably lucrative trade deals... just so long as their ships come pick up the goods at your ports. Because then, Lincoln will presumably be faced with the option of ending the blockade, or firing on European vessels. And that's when he's lost the war. Peace negotiations by summer '63, definitive treaty before the year is out.
To be clear: this demands improbable amounts of luck for the CSA. It would require the Confederates to win six more battles than in OTL (First Manassas, Antietam, Fort Henry, Fort Donelson, Shiloh, New Orleans), which would in turn prevent several more battles that the CSA lost on OTL (Memphis, Stones River, Vicksburg...) from even taking place. That those ATL victories would prevent those subsequent OTL defeats is realistic, but six extra victories to begin with is a tall order. Not ASB, but very unlikely. Few people are that lucky. But the simple fact is: anything less would not be sufficient to make the Confederates look like total winners and the Union like total losers... and that precise impression is a prerequisite for European recognition of the CSA's independence.
Last edited:
The Confederacy might be able to win just by events of Shiloh going right even if they lose the battle. They need AS Johnston to die like in our timeline. Johnston was the most overrated commander of the war. At Shiloh he didn't just fail as army commander, he failed to be the army commander. The change that needs to happen is rather than the minor hand wound, Sherman needs to be seriously wounded or killed, Without his leadership the Union lines collapse. Grant would be able to salvage and hold once he reached the battlefield, but the massively worse casualties would sideline Grant. Deprived of both Grant and Sherman, the Union cause would limp along under lesser generals, leading to peace by exhaustion after a Peace Democrat is elected in 1864.
The Confederacy must win 1st Manassas, the Peninsula Campaign, 2nd Manassas, Fredericksburg, Pea Ridge, Chancellorsville, Chickamauga, and Atlanta to survive.
The Confederacy must not fight at Ft Henry, Ft Donelson, Antietam, Gettysburg, Vicksburg, Franklin, or Nashville. They had no chance of winning and should have tried to preserve their armies.
Cold Harbor is irrelevant – Grant had the force, the will, and the skill to see the Overland Campaign to a successful conclusion. The only way this doesn’t happen is if Grant dies of typhoid.
The Confederacy must win 1st Manassas, the Peninsula Campaign, 2nd Manassas, Fredericksburg, Pea Ridge, Chancellorsville, Chickamauga, and Atlanta to survive.
The Confederacy must not fight at Ft Henry, Ft Donelson, Antietam, Gettysburg, Vicksburg, Franklin, or Nashville. They had no chance of winning and should have tried to preserve their armies.
Cold Harbor is irrelevant – Grant had the force, the will, and the skill to see the Overland Campaign to a successful conclusion. The only way this doesn’t happen is if Grant dies of typhoid.