I am thinking here of 3 assassination attempts on Hitler.
1) November 1939. Hitler was giving a speech in Munich to celebrate the Munich Putsch of 1923, and left shortly before a bomb exploded.
2) March 1943. A bomb on a place carrying Hitler from a meeting in Russia failed to explode.
3) The Stauffenberg bomb plot of July 1944.
Which one of these would have most dramatically impacted on the the course of events, if successful?
1) If Hitler had been assassinated in 1939, then Manstein's plan would not have received Hitler's backing, and the invasion of France may have bogged down into a stalemate. The Nazis may well have been overthrown, perhaps leading to peace after a protracted stalemate in the west, and possibly leaving Germany with some of their gains in the East. Alternatively, Goring may have more proactively pursued an alliance with the Soviet Union. He was in any case opposed to war with them. Also, the Jews would have been spared the murderous fate which overcame them, which could not have happened without Hitler.
A German alliance with the Soviet Union would have unforeseeable but no doubt unfortunate results for the Western Allies
2) Hitler being killed in March 1943 would result in Manstein being able to exercise his command in the Ukraine as he wished. There would be a more competent mobile defence, and more timely and effective counterattacks. Would this have persuaded Stalin into a separate peace, negotiated with a more receptive Goring? Or would Germany have collapsed into civil war?
3) The Stauffenberg bomb plot would again have resulted in generally less calamitous defeats for the Germans under more competent leadership than Hitler's but would no doubt have not changed the ultimate outcome of the war. Stalin would probably be less interested in a separate peace with the Germans at this point in view of his string of victories and the near certainty of the final outcome.
1) November 1939. Hitler was giving a speech in Munich to celebrate the Munich Putsch of 1923, and left shortly before a bomb exploded.
2) March 1943. A bomb on a place carrying Hitler from a meeting in Russia failed to explode.
3) The Stauffenberg bomb plot of July 1944.
Which one of these would have most dramatically impacted on the the course of events, if successful?
1) If Hitler had been assassinated in 1939, then Manstein's plan would not have received Hitler's backing, and the invasion of France may have bogged down into a stalemate. The Nazis may well have been overthrown, perhaps leading to peace after a protracted stalemate in the west, and possibly leaving Germany with some of their gains in the East. Alternatively, Goring may have more proactively pursued an alliance with the Soviet Union. He was in any case opposed to war with them. Also, the Jews would have been spared the murderous fate which overcame them, which could not have happened without Hitler.
A German alliance with the Soviet Union would have unforeseeable but no doubt unfortunate results for the Western Allies
2) Hitler being killed in March 1943 would result in Manstein being able to exercise his command in the Ukraine as he wished. There would be a more competent mobile defence, and more timely and effective counterattacks. Would this have persuaded Stalin into a separate peace, negotiated with a more receptive Goring? Or would Germany have collapsed into civil war?
3) The Stauffenberg bomb plot would again have resulted in generally less calamitous defeats for the Germans under more competent leadership than Hitler's but would no doubt have not changed the ultimate outcome of the war. Stalin would probably be less interested in a separate peace with the Germans at this point in view of his string of victories and the near certainty of the final outcome.