Where would United Empire Loyalists go if the USA takes Canada in the Revolution?

JJohnson

Banned
Just for the sake of discussion, let's say that Upper/Lower Canada, Prince Edward Island, and Nova Scotia willingly join the American Revolution with enough of their population supporting to help Americans win the war.

I'm also assuming Bermuda and the Bahamas are captured by Americans.

Assuming this, where would the OTL United Empire Loyalists go if they choose to leave? Would they go to Belize? the Caribbean? Africa? South America? About how many would you estimate would leave?
 

JJohnson

Banned
How about a Boer-like Great Trek west...?

That's one possibility.

OTL, roughly 62,000 Loyalists left, according to Wikipedia, going to:

British North America: 46,000
-34,000 to Nova Scotia
- 2,000 to Prince Edward Island
-10,000 to Ontario
Great Britain: 7,000
Bahamas/Caribbean: 9,000
Quebec: 10,000

Assuming the same level of evacuation, and assuming a population of around 102,000, say 1/3 are Loyalist, and 10-15% leave, that would be around 5,100 people leaving Canada/Nova Scotia. Total would be 67,400 leaving former British North America. Newfoundland would still be an option, as would returning to Great Britain. Some might venture inward to Rupert's Land, though the larger share would likely go to Africa, the Caribbean, and possibly South America. Where do you think the most likely places would be given the British Empire otherwise in 1783?

They would still hold Newfoundland, Mosquito Coast, St Kitts & Nevis, Providencia Island (in my TL), Barbados, Montserrat, Antigua, Anguilla, Jamaica, Barbuda, Caymans, Guiana (Berbice then), British Honduras, Falkland Islands, and New South Wales, amongst other islands. The closest places would be Newfoundland, Central America, and the Caribbean.
 
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Jamaica or Britain, but most would stay and be a source of constant criticism for the new Republic.

This. We already had enough neutralists in the Revolution, more would simply stay put and become this.

South Africa is ludicrous, as it was Dutch at the time. So is Newfoundland - it's a small, cold island.

Most would go to Britain and the West Indies that do bother to leave.
 

JJohnson

Banned
Imagine if most of them went to Newfoundland!

Newfoundland and Australia (New Holland) would both be sensible options at this time.

Newfoundland's got a population around 650,000 today, so it can hold the population, even if only temporarily. Temperature-wise, from -10° to 75° F temperatures, so winters would be roughly in line for the Canadian settlers, though the others would probably agitate for a better climate, which could lead the British Empire into forays elsewhere, maybe even lead to a Rio de la Plata invasion earlier for settlement reasons.

As for Australia, the colonization plans only came about in 1788, and perhaps a little sooner if Britain is pushed out of North America. Perhaps the Nootka Crisis in this timeline goes a bit differently, doesn't get resolved peacefully. PM William Pitt could be feeling the pressure from the colonists, the king, and the public to do something, and that could be the spark for a war on Spain, however small. Maybe they escalate, and with the recent backing of the Dutch Republic and Prussia, Britain makes a go at Spain's colonies in the Caribbean or South America. France is out by 1790, so Spain just lost its ally.
 
How about a Boer-like Great Trek west...?
How? where?
Canada simply doesn't have a 'MidWest' like the US does. You have Central Canada (Ontario and Quebec) then you have lake and rock then you have the prairies starting about Winnipeg.

The Vortrekkers could load their wagons and head out, and every where they went they had land that would at least feed their oxen and horses.

Not so with Canada.

Before the railway, by far the easiest way to get from Ontario to the Prairies was through the US. In fact, during the First Riel Rebellion that's what the Canadian government had to do. Beg the US for permission to send military through the US.

So, no.
 
The Loyalists would spread around the Empire, heading to colonies like Jamaica, Turks and Caicos, South Africa, India, New South Wales, etc.
 
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