Where would Korea Expand To?

If Korea pulled a Meiji and became a powerful Westernized empire similar to Japan where would it expand to? Would it annex Manchuria, Pacific islands, Formosa, Japan, Siam, where?
 
Manchuria seems the most likely.

The thing is, even if Japan doesn't go Meiji, they're still likely going to have a substantially larger population than Korea. So directly annexing Japan seems unlikely. Of course, this mainly goes for Honshu, I guess... Kyushu and Shikoku have about ~18 million between them OTL 2009. So they might be more digestible, but in that case you're probably going to have a very angry rump Japan.

Manchuria seems the most likely, I think. I think by nature of its geographic position Korea will be more interested in land in mainland Asia- if there's a Russian Revolution in TTL I'd see them as trying to hold on to as much of the Russian Far East as they could.
 
Manchuria is indeed likely. Perhaps Formosa too. I guess we'd see a Sino-Korean War (with Korea trying to be released from Qing suzerainty and ending their status as a tribute state) as an equivalent to OTL's Sino-Japanese War with a more or less similar outcome. I wonder what will happen if Japan still pulls a Meiji in TTL as well. Then we'd have two Asian tigers competing for influence.
 
Even if it does start to modernize it seems destined to fall into China, Japan's or Russia's sphere of influence. They're just a small nation surronded by three larger ones.
 
Manchuria is indeed likely. Perhaps Formosa too. I guess we'd see a Sino-Korean War (with Korea trying to be released from Qing suzerainty and ending their status as a tribute state) as an equivalent to OTL's Sino-Japanese War with a more or less similar outcome. I wonder what will happen if Japan still pulls a Meiji in TTL as well. Then we'd have two Asian tigers competing for influence.

If so they'd most likely be rivals. Which European powers would Korea ally with and which European powers would Japan ally with?
 
In Korea's history at one time it had a pretty large portion of what is northeast China. It would not make sence to head southward,the Japanese would block it. So north makes sense,as well as the fact that Chinese actually speak Korean in the boarder region between China and North Korea.
 
Dunno about alliances, not for sure anyway, there are lots of butterflies involved. I could see Japan expanding into the Pacific instead with a Spanish-Japanese War in which Japan seizes the Philippines. Formosa might could go either way although I think Japanese occupation is more likely while Korea exerts influence in Manchuria as Japan tries to block Korean moves south. Maybe we'd see a Russo-Korean war instead of a Russo-Japanese War, leading to closer ties with the Central Powers, Russia enemy, while Japan drifts closer to the Allies. I won't make any predictions for after TTL's WW1.

BTW, are there any TLs like this. A TL were Korea and Japan pull a Meiji? What kind of PoDs would be needed for a Korean Meiji. I've always wondered.

@lothaw: Korea isn't big in size but isn't weak. If it were a unified nation now, Korea would have some 72 million inhabitants which is more than Britain and France and close to Germany.
 
In all likelyhood, Manchuaria, the Russian Far East, North-Eastern China and possibly Mongolia.

If both Korea and Japan go Meiji, I could envisage Korea expanding into Northern china, weakening it through the capture of Beijing etc. followed by Japaneese expansion/influence in the South via Formosa. The southern Korean boundary would perhaps be the Huai River, Japan south of the Yangtze and a rump china as a buffer state between, with an independant Tibet and North-West provinces perhaps going to Russia.
 
If Korea pulled a Meiji and became a powerful Westernized empire similar to Japan where would it expand to? Would it annex Manchuria, Pacific islands, Formosa, Japan, Siam, where?

The most likely avenue of expansion is to the north and west, into Manchuria and possibly Siberia/northern china. Formosa serves little purpose and has the minor obstacle of Kyushu directly interdicting your lines of communication, no reason to go for the Pacific islands, Japan is almost certainly to strong to conquer, and Siam is a laughable idea.

The problem is that Korea is going to have very limited options as long as its neighbors have even pretensions to power. The only real route to conquest is to try to grab Manchuria while the Qing decay and before the Russians can interfere. But Korea also has to watch its back, as historical and political rival Japan is threatening its flank. A stronger Korea probably deters Japan from adventures into China, meaning that it will focus north (Kurils and Sakhalin) and south (probably tries to snatch the Phillippenes at some point). But once its neighbors reach Korea, this Korean empire lacks any real prospects for further expansion and is forced into a delicate balancing act.
 
The most likely avenue of expansion is to the north and west, into Manchuria and possibly Siberia/northern china. Formosa serves little purpose and has the minor obstacle of Kyushu directly interdicting your lines of communication, no reason to go for the Pacific islands, Japan is almost certainly to strong to conquer, and Siam is a laughable idea.

The problem is that Korea is going to have very limited options as long as its neighbors have even pretensions to power. The only real route to conquest is to try to grab Manchuria while the Qing decay and before the Russians can interfere. But Korea also has to watch its back, as historical and political rival Japan is threatening its flank. A stronger Korea probably deters Japan from adventures into China, meaning that it will focus north (Kurils and Sakhalin) and south (probably tries to snatch the Phillippenes at some point). But once its neighbors reach Korea, this Korean empire lacks any real prospects for further expansion and is forced into a delicate balancing act.

Well put.

For that matter Japan is now cut off from the main source of its OTL conquests and attempted conquests - Korea, Manchuria, China, etc. With no practical gains to be had to the west, Japan has a lot less to gain from wars of aggression. Taiwan is certainly available, and some clusters of Pacific islands, but even the Philippines are way the heck away from everything.

The long and the short of this is that Japan, especially if it gets its hands on Taiwan or the Philippines, is stuck. With a strong Asian competitor right behind it, the cost-benefit ratio of any war is much lower. Why risk a proper invasion of China when an independent and powerful Korea is right there?

The histories of both states are likely to end up revolving around one another. Both would be periodically stronger than their other neighbors, but unable to take advantage properly because of the threat at their back door.
 
Following is a map of showing the Ancient Korean Kingdoms:

Three_Kingdoms_of_Korea_Map.png



Currently part of that map in blue which use to be part of Korea today is part of China. In that area there some areas predominantly made up of Chinese of Korean stock.

There is sort of a connection with Koreans and Mongolians. So chances are Korea would have expanded all the way and maybe include Inner Mongolia which is today part of China. Not sure if they would control the eastern part of outer Mongolia which today is the Republic of Mongolia.

Map of Northeast China:

ManchuNortheastChina3.gif


This is a map of Jilin:
yanji.jpg


Map of the prefectures of Jillin:
450px-JilinMap.png


Number 9 on that map above of Jilin is Yanbian autonomous prefecture:
Yanbian is designated as an autonomous prefecture due to the large number of ethnic Koreans living in the region. The prefectural capital is Yanji, and the area is 42,700 km².
Yanbian (number 9) is 45% the Size of South Korea. Population is 2.2 Million and those of Korean Stock make up 38.76%. In the 1950's it use to be 60%. Tumen City in Yanbian, near the border with N. Korea, has a population of 136000 and 57% Korean. It seems many Koreans migrated to China in the 1800's and when the Japanese invaded.
 
If so they'd most likely be rivals. Which European powers would Korea ally with and which European powers would Japan ally with?

Hmmmm ... now this is where it gets interesting for me is finding a way of turning Asia into a continent of competing powers with Western level technology. If both Korea and Japan are jumping on the transformation band wagon how much chance is there for China to see the need to do so? There have been various topics on the Balkanization of China ... how would a rival Japan eating up Formosa and a Korea marching around Manchuria effect the breakup? Could certain regions of China have the chance to break off and attempt modernization themselves if China proper does not? By 1900, what would such an Asia look like and more importantly who is allied with who? Now that's putting the 'world' into WW1.
 
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