Where else could white minority regimes emerge?

You think Dawkins would be president of Lugardia? That's hilarious! By the way, what would prompt Lugardia to go to war with Uganda?


Lugardia?


Well, war between Kenya and Uganda would begin with border disputes, but really the tension is boiling between a black nationalist government and a white run government. The Ugandan whites (and even a few Indians) flee to Kenya.
 
Hong Kong was on a island. Shanghai is not. BTW, the UK still gave up Hong Kong.

So yes, you could.... If you redefine white to include chinese.
Well, would the Communists say "fuck negotiating" and invade Shanghai if they won in a TL where the concessions were not returned?
 
Well, would the Communists say "fuck negotiating" and invade Shanghai if they won in a TL where the concessions were not returned?
One of the largest elements of the legitimacy of the PRC internally is that the PRC stopped the century of humiliation and it saying it will make China a feared and respected power once more. The concessions were explict reminders that the century of humiliation happened.

They might not have a choice, politically. The Chinese people have a decent chance of rioting over backing down over the concessions. And a white-minority regime in shanghai is not going to be supported against the PRC, which will overrun it before any aid can reach it and will be a PR disaster to support against the PRC.

Hell, I doubt it would survive even the Korean War, let alone WW2.
 
So, several people in this thread have mentioned former Portuguese Africa one possible contender. I would like to offer some thoughts on the matter.

It certainly depends on your definition of "white minority regimes." It seems to me that what the OP had in mind was strictly limited to something in the molds of OTL Rodhesia/South Africa, where the white minority was legally put in charge of running the nation and openly discriminated agaisnt the non-white majority. However, for some people here, it seems that a nation where a white minority is simply disproportionately represented in the political/economic elite can qualify as a white minority regime.

If that's the case (and I don't really think this is a very good intrepretation of the term) then it would be relatively easy to get a society like that to emerge in former Portuguese Africa. Simply get Estado Novo reformers to gain control of the government during the 1950s or 60s and you (hopefully) get a slow decolonization process under which Angola and Mozambique gradually gained independence while maintaining relatively large white minorities. Assuming the countries are stable after independence, the political and economic elites will surely be disproportionately white for quite some time.

However, there would be no institutionalized discrimination in this scenario. It's important to have in mind that such a thing runs contrary to Portuguese colonialist ideology, which explicitly sought to create a pluricontinental, multiracial polity united under the Portuguese state, language and culture. This agenda was pursued with varying degrees of commitment throughout Portuguese colonial history. While the "final form" of this ideology- lusotropicalism - was only adopted by the Portuguese state in the 1950s, and still practically ignored until the 60s, it had been the general guiding principle since the early 20th century, at least, and it has in early Portuguese colonial policies (dating back to the 15th century). Integration of native African saw some progress during the 1910s and 20s, then suffered a severe setback at the beggining of the Estado Novo in the 30s, slowly started to gain steam again in the 50s, became more vigorously persued in the 60s (though not always with the best results), and was going at an almost frenetic pace by the early 70s (EDIT: With this, I only mean things were improving much faster than they had been during the previous decades. Not that things were actually getting "good"). By 1974, Angola had arguably achieved color-blind education and was beggining to develop a native elite (EDIT: This was mostly only valid for the cities, though). Also, almost half of the Portuguese colonial forces fightinhg the war against the MPLA and UNITA were composed of native africans. In Mozambique, the situation was never so shiny, mostly because Rodhesia and South Africa had some influence in the south, but also because the Portuguese military and civilian leadership in the area (especially commander in chief of the army of the army of Mozambique, general Kaúzula de Arriaga) was not as enlightened...

Still, the official Estado Novo colonialist ideology was followed there, and most of the people who believed in retaining a white Portuguese presence in Africa also likely believed it to a degree. I know at least a dozen of people who used to live in former Portuguese Africa, and most of them will berate you for even suggesting that there was such a thing as racism in Portuguese Africa during the 70s. I know for a fact that that is not true, but I also believe that it was not their intention to be racist in any or form and that they genuinely believed at the time that the Estado Novo propaganda of a better future for people of all races could be turned into a reality.

I'm not trying to portray Portuguese colonialism as noble or anything. Even considering that most of the 1 million+ Portuguese people living in Africa at the time were not racist, the system was still tremendously unfair for the natives, and it shouldn't be romanitcized or apologized for in any way. However, I do think it's important to have in mind that the concept of "white minority" rule would not find many supporters in Portuguese Africa. Both the colonial populations and the Estado Novo's political and military elites would be sceptical at best, and downright hostile at worst, because it's something that runs contrary to everything they were told they were fighting for.

The only way I can see a system like this emerge in former Portuguese Africa is if Rodhesian and SA downright invate southern Mozambique in the 70s. They could get some (limited) support from ultra-righist Portuguese army officers and some tiny white paramilitary organizations in the former colony, but they would still have to do the lion's share of the job.
 
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Also, I belive there is one fundamental difference between Anglo-Saxonic cultures and Iberian/Hispanic cultures in the way they experience racism. People from South America (both Brazil and the Spanish-speaking) will probably know what I'm talking about. In Anglo-Saxonic cultures, when white peope begin to feel unconfortable about having too many people around who do not look nor act like them, they think "we need to keep them as far a way from possible so that they don't ruin our superior gene-pool and civilization", and hence you get segregation, anti-miscegenation laws and institutionalized discrimination, while in hispanic cultures they think "we need to absorb them as fast as possible so that they become part of our superior gene-pool and civilization", and that gives you precisely the opposite, forced integration, forced assimilation and forced miscegenation.
 
If the SADF and Rhodesian Security Forces "intervene" in the Portuguese coup in 1974 and invade Angola and Mozambique, they could force the installment of white Lusophone nationalist governments. These would inevitably fall apart or democratize during the late 80s though.
 
If the SADF and Rhodesian Security Forces "intervene" in the Portuguese coup in 1974 and invade Angola and Mozambique, they could force the installment of white Lusophone nationalist governments. These would inevitably fall apart or democratize during the late 80s though.

I've discussed this above. See my post please if you're interesting in discussing this type of possibility.

Angola is most surely a no-go (if we're talking about a "apartheid" sort of regime), but I could see something like that being possible in southern Mozambique.
 
I've discussed this above. See my post please if you're interesting in discussing this type of possibility.

Angola is most surely a no-go (if we're talking about a "apartheid" sort of regime), but I could see something like that being possible in southern Mozambique.

I’ve read somewhere that in the most white settled cities in Angola and Mozambique (Luanda, Lourenço, nova Lisboa) that there were so many whites that they occupied all classes of the society, contrary to SA and Rhodesia where black people would do the more manual and poor jobs. And that as a consequence of this there were even less opportunities in cities for them than in Rhodesia and even SA. Also Angola had much more villages that simply weren’t affected by any development the Portuguese made.
 
I’ve read somewhere that in the most white settler cities in Angola and Mozambique (Luanda, Lourenço, nova Lisboa) that there were so many whites that they occupied all classes of the society, contrary to SA and Rhodesia where black people would do the more manual and poor jobs. And that as a consequence of this there were even less opportunities in cities for them than in Rhodesia and even SA. Also Angola had much more villages that simply weren’t affected by any development the Portuguese made.

I believe that's mostly true. More so regarding Angola than Mozambique though. I've read somewhere that Nova Lisboa (present day Huambo) had a white majority in the 70s, and it's possible that may also have been the case with Luanda. Surely not with Lourenço Marques, although there were more Indians and Chinese there.

Not sure I exactly get the point you're trying to make, though...
 
Just to be entirely clear: I wasn't trying to whitewash Portuguese colonialism nor deny its negative impact on the natives, I was mostly pointing out that Portuguese colonialist ideology was fundamentally different from Rodhesian and South African white supremacy and that the Portuguese colonial populations thought differently from their anglo-saxon counterparts
 
I believe that's mostly true. More so regarding Angola than Mozambique though. I've read somewhere that Nova Lisboa (present day Huambo) had a white majority in the 70s, and it's possible that may also have been the case with Luanda. Surely not with Lourenço Marques, although there were more Indians and Chinese there.

Not sure I exactly get the point you're trying to make, though...

After reading Angola under the Portuguese by G.J bender i’m Not sure a white dominated Angola, even without any official segregation, would see substantial improvement for the majority of black Angolan... there was too much racial and cultural pride, too much “unofficial” racism, development didn’t reach most Africans, they had no idea how to treat racial problems. Also Angola has very low rate of miscgenisation.

And eventually it would have to democratise, there is no need to suppress blacks when nobody, not even whites can vote, but when the majority black population will be able to vote the dominant class may change their opinion.

I think you may be repeating a bit too much propaganda. It was better than SA, it wasn’t nearly as good or improving as the tone of your post make it to be.

Edit: it’s alright, let’s forget about this
 
For an effective minority control, there must be

1. an initial tactical and technology gap that colonisers can exploit for territorial control (in other words, most of the world could come into question)
2. a considerable economic productivity gap between the colonisers and locals over time (...this precludes all of Asia)
3. a major investment and domestic capital formation misallocation, which the occupiers can provide and offset, e.g. bringing in capital and equipment.
4. once that misallocation is offset, the territory must be able to produce and sustain a considerable current account surplus - i.e. it must be profitable and sustainable to colonise (e.g. export incomes that minority can use to buy control).
5. considerable (ethnic, linguistic or cultural) fragmentation amongst the indigenous population which can be exploited by occupiers to sustain minority rule. We are probably looking at failed or non-existent governance and market institutions

Sub-Sahara may suffer from fragmentation/institutions but they are nowadays running capital surpluses. International financial markets and the global chase for growth have made capitals brought by 'white' colonisers redundant.

Some fragmented, semi-failed states with misallocation issues - and indeed they are (sort of) ruled by non-local minorities (Suriname, Iraq, Syria). Colonisation of places like Afghanistan cannot be made profitable.

This may be provocative to some, but colonisers may want to consider economically depressed places like the southern states of the U.S. or rural Britain since they need to exploit advantages against "inferior" indigenous economies.
 
After reading Angola under the Portuguese by G.J bender i’m Not sure a white dominated Angola, even without any official segregation, would see substantial improvement for the majority of black Angolan... there was too much racial and cultural pride, too much “unofficial” racism, development didn’t reach most Africans, they had no idea how to treat racial problems. Also Angola has very low rate of miscgenisation.

And eventually it would have to democratise, there is no need to suppress blacks when nobody, not even whites can vote, but when the majority black population will be able to vote the dominant class may change their opinion.

I think you may be repeating a bit too much propaganda. It was better than SA, it wasn’t nearly as good or improving as the tone of your post make it to be.

Edit: it’s alright, let’s forget about this

I never said it would have been good for the Africans (not that that can't be done, but it would probably take an earlier PoD...), I was merely saying it could never have been a clone of Rodhesia/South Africa and their segregation systems, which is what most people seem to think would happen under this type of scenario. There are different ways a regime can be exploitative, and I am well aware that Portuguese Africa was very much so, I merely trying to illustrate the fact that the ideology was different and so was the mentality of the white population. When I mentioned the improvements made in the 60s and early 70s my intent was not really to claim that things were THAT good for the majority of the population (things were only improving fastly when compared to what had happaned in the last few decades) but more to show examples of the ideology in practice.

It's hard to talk about this sort of thing without being misunderstood...
 
So, several people in this thread have mentioned former Portuguese Africa one possible contender. I would like to offer some thoughts on the matter.

It certainly depends on your definition of "white minority regimes." It seems to me that what the OP had in mind was strictly limited to something in the molds of OTL Rodhesia/South Africa, where the white minority was legally put in charge of running the nation and openly discriminated agaisnt the non-white majority. However, for some people here, it seems that a nation where a white minority is simply disproportionately represented in the political/economic elite can qualify as a white minority regime.

If that's the case (and I don't really think this is a very good intrepretation of the term) then it would be relatively easy to get a society like that to emerge in former Portuguese Africa. Simply get Estado Novo reformers to gain control of the government during the 1950s or 60s and you (hopefully) get a slow decolonization process under which Angola and Mozambique gradually gained independence while maintaining relatively large white minorities. Assuming the countries are stable after independence, the political and economic elites will surely be disproportionately white for quite some time.

However, there would be no institutionalized discrimination in this scenario. It's important to have in mind that such a thing runs contrary to Portuguese colonialist ideology, which explicitly sought to create a pluricontinental, multiracial polity united under the Portuguese state, language and culture. This agenda was pursued with varying degrees of commitment throughout Portuguese colonial history. While the "final form" of this ideology- lusotropicalism - was only adopted by the Portuguese state in the 1950s, and still practically ignored until the 60s, it had been the general guiding principle since the early 20th century, at least, and it has in early Portuguese colonial policies (dating back to the 15th century). Integration of native African saw some progress during the 1910s and 20s, then suffered a severe setback at the beggining of the Estado Novo in the 30s, slowly started to gain steam again in the 50s, became more vigorously persued in the 60s (though not always with the best results), and was going at an almost frenetic pace by the early 70s (EDIT: With this, I only mean things were improving much faster than they had been during the previous decades. Not that things were actually getting "good"). By 1974, Angola had arguably achieved color-blind education and was beggining to develop a native elite (EDIT: This was mostly only valid for the cities, though). Also, almost half of the Portuguese colonial forces fightinhg the war against the MPLA and UNITA were composed of native africans. In Mozambique, the situation was never so shiny, mostly because Rodhesia and South Africa had some influence in the south, but also because the Portuguese military and civilian leadership in the area (especially commander in chief of the army of the army of Mozambique, general Kaúzula de Arriaga) was not as enlightened...

Still, the official Estado Novo colonialist ideology was followed there, and most of the people who believed in retaining a white Portuguese presence in Africa also likely believed it to a degree. I know at least a dozen of people who used to live in former Portuguese Africa, and most of them will berate you for even suggesting that there was such a thing as racism in Portuguese Africa during the 70s. I know for a fact that that is not true, but I also believe that it was not their intention to be racist in any or form and that they genuinely believed at the time that the Estado Novo propaganda of a better future for people of all races could be turned into a reality.

I'm not trying to portray Portuguese colonialism as noble or anything. Even considering that most of the 1 million+ Portuguese people living in Africa at the time were not racist, the system was still tremendously unfair for the natives, and it shouldn't be romanitcized or apologized for in any way. However, I do think it's important to have in mind that the concept of "white minority" rule would not find many supporters in Portuguese Africa. Both the colonial populations and the Estado Novo's political and military elites would be sceptical at best, and downright hostile at worst, because it's something that runs contrary to everything they were told they were fighting for.

The only way I can see a system like this emerge in former Portuguese Africa is if Rodhesian and SA downright invate southern Mozambique in the 70s. They could get some (limited) support from ultra-righist Portuguese army officers and some tiny white paramilitary organizations in the former colony, but they would still have to do the lion's share of the job.
Not to be patronizing or anything, but great ideas. To clarify - I didn't necessarily mean a Rhodesia/SA type of situation. I mean any regime ruled by a sizable minority of 1 million+ people over a much larger majority. Even the one party systems where it takes work and effort to get into the ruling party, such as China, might qualify.
 
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