Gephardt, Richards win 2000 Election
Quayle Concedes: “A hard fought campaign”
Dems gain 2 seats in Senate, 3 in House
Reform and “Stripebacks” lose ground, but remain a factor
The Washington Post, November 8th, 2000
(Image source Getty Images)
St. Louis – Vice President Richard “Dick” Gephardt and Texas Governor Ann Richards claimed victory in last night’s Presidential Election, claiming narrow but crucial wins in the make-or-break swing states of Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, giving them a 301-237 Electoral Vote margin and winning 49% of the popular vote to Dan Quayle’s and Al D’Amato’s just-under 47%. The Reform Party, meanwhile, had a rough night, with Senators Jesse Ventura and Ben Nighthorse Campbell managing a paltry 0.62%, finishing far behind even Ralph Nader and Winona La Duke’s Green Party, which claimed 2.74%.[1]
“Reform just doesn’t perform without Perot,” said Democratic strategist James Carville, who echoed the idea that without its charismatic founder Reform just doesn’t have the steam to keep up with the GOP and Dems as a national party.
Reform similarly took a beating in the House of Representatives, losing 3 seats and returning the House to a Democratic majority, albeit a razor-thin one. Of the five remaining Reform congresspeople, three caucus with the Democrats while two caucus with the GOP, resulting in a Democratic-Reform-Socialist coalition, albeit one with no margin of error. Reform still holds its four Senate seats, and thus remains a factor, even with Democratic wins in California, Missouri, Georgia, and Michigan giving them a 50-seat majority when VP Richards is factored in. “Reform took a clocking on the national level, but they’re still a force to be reckoned with in both Houses [of Congress],” said Carville.
These Reform votes will play a crucial role in President Gephardt’s promised “reevaluation” of NAFTA, and likely to play a role in…
Cont’d on A2.
Presidential Election
Vice President Dick Gephardt (D-MO) / Governor Ann Richards (D-TX) - 301 - 49.00% - 51,308,143
Former Vice President Dan Quayle (R-IN) / Governor Al D'Amato (R-NY) - 237 - 46.91% - 49,114,410
Ralph Nader (G-CT) / Winona La Duke (G-MN) - 2.74% - 2,869,263
Senator Jesse Ventura (Ref/NL-MN) / Senator Ben Nighthorse Campbell (Ref/NL-CO) - .62% - 652,955*
Harry Browne (L-TN) / Art Oliver (L-CA) - .37% - 388,889
Governor Dean Barkley (Ref/NL-MN) / Senator Ben Nighthorse Campbell (Ref/NL-CO) - .17% - 173,142 *
Howard Phillips (C-VA) / Curtis Frazier (C-MO) - .09% - 97,358
Patrick Buchanan (Ref-VA) / Ezola Foster (Ref-CA) - .03% - 33,611*
Scattered - .06% - 67,991
*Natural Law nominated Jesse Ventura in every state except Minnesota, where he was running for re-election to the Senate and couldn’t run for both and so Dean Barkley was nominated there. Reform largely endorsed Gephardt, but Reform joined Natural Law in nominating Ventura in the following states: Connecticut, Hawaii, Kansas, Maine, Nevada, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, Utah and Vermont. Buchanan was nominated by right-wing Reform parties in the following states: Louisiana, Missouri, New Hampshire, and Oregon.
Senate
Democrats: 50 (+2)
Republicans: 46 (-2)
Reform: 4 (+/-)*
President Pro Tempore: Richard Byrd (D-WV)
Senate Majority Leader: Jim Sasser (D-TN)
Senate Majority Whip: Geraldine Ferraro (D-NY)
Senate Minority Leader: Bob Dole (R-KS)
Senate Minority Whip: Trent Lott (R-MS)
Senate Reform Leader: Jim Jeffords (Ref-VT)*
*King has explicitly moved to officially caucusing with Democrats and stepped down as Leader.
California: Former Governor Dianne Feinstein (D) def Senator Pete Wilson (R) - 46.49- 46.06 - Dem Flip**
Florida: Senator JEB Bush (R) def Attorney General Bob Butterworth (D/Ref) - 57.1- 39.93 - Rep Hold
Maine: Senator Angus King (Ref w/ Dem) def Former Representative Olympia Snowe (R) and State Senator Matthew Lawrence - First Round: King - 39.66, Snowe - 32.02, Lawrence - 28.32. SEcond Round - King - 63.7, Snowe - 37.3
Michigan: Former Secretary of Labor James Blanchard (D w/Ref) def Senator Ronna Romney (R) - 49.08 - 48.21 - Democratic Flip*
Minnesota: Senator Jesse Ventura (Ref) def Former Auditor Mark Dayton (D) and State Rep Tim Pawlenty (R) - 36.75 - 36.33 - 29.02 - Ref Hold
Missouri: Governor Mel Carnahan (D w/Ref) def Senator John Ashcroft (R) - 54 - 44.7 - Dem Flip; Notably Mel Carnahan’s plane crash is butterflied.
Montana: Senator John Melcher (D/w Ref) def Rep Frank Hill (R) - 58.47 - 41. 53 - Dem Hold
Nevada: Treasurer Bob Seale (R) def Broadcaster Edward Bernstein (D) and None of These Candidates - 51.71 - 40.3 - 4.72 - Rep Flip
New Jersey: Congressman Bob Franks (R) def CEO John Corzine (D w/Ref) - 48.88 - 48.53 - Rep Flip
New York: Representative Chuck Schumer (D w/Ref) def Lt. Governor George Pataki (R) - 54.02 - 44.36 - Dem Hold*
Pennsylvania: Senator John Heinz (R) def Rep Ron Klink (D w/ Ref) - 54.03 - 44.11 - Rep Hold*
Rhode Island: Mayor Lincoln Chaffee (R) def Senator Linda Kushner (D) - 51.32 - 42.13 - Rep Flip**
Tennessee: Senator John Sasser (D w/Ref) def Rep Ed Bryant (R) - 58.14 - 39.33 - Dem Hold
Texas: Senator Joe Barton (R) def Comptroller John Sharp (D) - 51.04 - 46.51 - Rep Hold*
Vermont: Senator Jim Jeffords (Ref) def Auditor Ed Flannagan (D) and Attorney Rick Hubbard (R) - 55.3-23.24-11.77 - Ref Hold
Virginia: Senator Doug Wilder (D w/ Ref) def Rep Tom Davis (R) - 51.32 - 48.85 - Dem Hold
Washington: Senator Norm Rice (D w/Ref) def Rep Rick White (R) - 60.36-36.99 - Dem Hold*
Wyoming: Senator John Vinich (DRef) def State Senator Barbara Cubin (R) - 54.17 - 45.15 - DemRef Hold
*Same Party as our timeline
**Same Office Holder as our timeline
House of Representatives
Democrats: 215 (+3)
Republicans: 214 (+/-)
Reform: 5 (-3) [3 allied with Democrats, 2 with Republicans including formerly unaligned Rep Wood]
Socialist: 1 (+/)
Democrats w/ Reform and Socialist Majority
Speaker: David Bonior (D-MI)
House Majority Leader: Nancy Pelosi (D-CA)
House Majority Whip: John Lewis (D-GA)
House Minority Leader: Dick Armey (R-TX)
House Minority Whip: Tom Delay (R-TX)
Reform Leader: John Michael (Ref-ME)
Notable House Elections
AL 2nd - Rep George Wallace (R-AL) def Charles Woods (D w/Ref) - 70.3-27.2 - Republican Hold*
AK - State Senator Loren Leman (R) def John Whitmore (Ref w/D) - 49.7 - 46.7 - Republican Flip
Arkansas 2nd - Representative Bud Cummins (R) defeats Former State Senator Vic Snyder (D/Ref) - 50.68 - 49.26 - Rep Hold
California 1st - Former State Senator Mike Thompson (D) defeats Representative Dan Hamburg (Ref) and Russel Chase (R) - 58.53 - 21.1 - 14.65 - DemRef switch to Ref to Dem Flip*
California 3rd - Rep Saide Dunn (D/Ref) defeats Doug Ose (R) - 53.73 - 42.8 - Dem Hold
California 4th - Former State Rep Barbara Alby (R) defeats Representative Patricia Mahlberg (D w/Ref) - 50.07 - 44.76 - Rep Flip*
California 11th - Representative Patti Garamendi (D w/Ref) def Councilor Sandy Smoley (R) - 51.43 - 44.48 - Dem Hold
California 22nd - Representative Gary Hart (D w/Ref ) defeats Mike Stoker (R) - 57.42 - 40.99 - Dem Hold*
California 38th - Representative Rick Zbur (D) def Tim Escobar (R) - 60.77 - 35..1 - Democratic Hold
California 43rd - Rep Mark Takano (D) defeats Martin Collen (R) -50.17 - 44.62 - Dem Hold
California 49th - Representative Lynn Schenk (D) def Peter Navarro (R) - 62.93 - 32.68 - Dem Hold *
Connecticut 2nd - Rep David Bingham (Ref w/R) def Martin Masters (D) - 67.8 - 32.2 - Reform Hold
Idaho 1st - Lt. Governor Butch Otter (R) def Rep Marion Ellis (Ref w/D) - 58.54- 39.16 - Rep Flip**
Illinois 11th - Rep Clem Balanoff (D w/Ref) def former State Rep Samuel Panayotovich (R) - 55.25 - 44.75 - Dem Hold
Illinois 18th - Rep David Phelps (D w/Ref) wins without opposition - Dem Hold
Illinois 20th - State Senator Laura Donahue (R) defeats Rep Jay Hoffman (D w/Ref) - 51.75 - 48.17 - Rep Flip*
Indiana 9th - Representative Jean Lesing (R) defeats James McClure (D w/Ref) - 54.81 - 43.18 - Rep Hold
Kansas 2nd - Former Mayor Douglas Wright (R) defeats Rep John Frieden (D w/Ref) - 53.21 - 43.25 - Republican Flip
Kansas 3rd - Representative Judy Kline (D w/Ref) defeats Phil Kline (R) - 52.25 - 42.71 - Dem Hold*
Kansas 4th - Representative Seth Warren (Ref W/D) defeats Nancy Harrington (R) - 56.25 - 40.21 - Ref Hold
Kentucky 4th - Representative Gex Williams (R) defeats Howard Feinberg (D w/Ref) - 54.2 - 43.73 - Rep Hold
Louisiana 7th - Lt. Governor Kathleen Blanco (D) defeats Rep Clyde Holloway (R) - 58.83 - 40.76 - Dem Flip
Maine 2nd - Representative John Michael (Ref) defeats State Senator Michael Michaud (D) and Richard Campbell (R) - First Round: Michael - 42.03, Michaud - 33.5, Campbell - 22.57
Second Round - Michael - 61.41, Michaud - 38.59 - Reform Hold
Massachusetts 1st - State Rep Ellen Story (D) defeats Representative Patrick Larkin (R w/Ref) - 57.72 - 41.04 - Dem Flip
Michigan 7th - Rep John Conyers (D w/ REf) - 74.54, William Ashe (R) - 62.69-35.28 - Dem Hold
Michigan 8th -State Senator Debbie Stabenow (D w/Ref) def. State Senator Mike Rogers (R) - 54.8 - 43.17 - Dem Hold
Michigan 11th - State Department Staffer Matthew Frumin (D w/Ref) defeats Marty Knollenberg (R) - 71.27 - 25.7 - Dem Hold
Michigan 12th - IOTL 14th District Holder Dennis Hertel (D) holds this seat rather than being drawn into Sander Levin’s District
Michigan 17th - Representative Sander Levin (D) holds this district number instead of John Conyers - Dem Hold
Minnesota 2nd - Representative Cal Ludeman (R) def Janet Robert (DFL) - 53.73 - 42.45 - Rep Hold
Mississippi 4th - Rep Dennis Hosemann (R) def. Former State Senator Ronnie Shows (D)- 51.91-46.75 - Rep Hold
Missouri 6th - State Senator Steve Danner (D w/Ref) def State Senator Sam Graves (R) - 50.26 - 47.31 - Dem Hold
Montana - Rep Steve Kelly (Ref w/ D) def Denny Rehberg (R) - 51.87 - 45.7 - Ref Hold
Nevada 1st - Rep Gary Wood (Ref w/R) def Shelley Berkley (D) - 54.42-42.61 - Ref Hold
New Jersey 2nd - Dick Zimmer (R) def Rep David Del Vecchio (D w/ Ref) - 50.78 - 47.3 - Rep Flip
New York 1st - Michael Forbes (R) doesn’t switch parties ITTL and is re-elected
Pennsylvania 13th - Rep John Fox (R) def State Senator Allyson Schwartz (D w/Ref) - 57.63 - 41.44 - Rep Hold
Pennsylvania 15th - Rep Jim Yeager (R) def Ed O’Brien (D W/Ref) - 54.63 - 45.37 - Rep Hold*
Pa 20th - Mayor Thomas Murphy (D W/Ref) def Rep Bill Townsend (R) -52.44 - 47.56 Dem Flip*
Texas 5th - Regina Coggins (D w/Ref) defeats Rep Pete Sessions (R) - 53.44 - 46.56 - Dem Flip
Texas 9th - Rep Jack Brooks (D w/ Ref) defeats Paul Williams (R) - 69.01- 31.04 Dem Hold*
TX 14th - Rep Lefty Morris (D w/ Ref) defeats Ron Paul (R) - 59.01 - 40.99 - Dem Hold
Utah 2nd - Jim Mattheson (D) defeats Rep Merrill Cook (Ref) and Derek Smith (R) - 51.47 - 25.24 - 20.38 - Dem Flip**
Virginia 2nd - Lawyer Jody Wagner (D w/Ref) def State Senator Ed Schrock (R) - 51.53- 48.47 - Dem Hold
Virginia 5th - Virgil Goode remains a Democrat and is re-elected as such**
Washington 1st - Representative Rick White (R) def Bob Drewel (D w/Ref) - 51 - 46.07 - Rep Hold
Wisconsin 2nd - Representative Josephine Musser (R) def State Senator Joseph Wineke (D w/Ref) - 58.14 - 41.76 - Rep Hold
Wyoming - Rep Pete Maxfield (DRef) def State Senator Carol Miller (R) - 52.08 - 43.19 - DemRef Hold
*Same Party as our timeline
**Reversion to our timeline’s seat holder
Governor Elections
Republicans: 22 (+/-)
Democrats: 21 (+/-)
Reform: 7(+/-)
Chapter 6: Reform Peaks
From Swirling Colors: The Rise of Political Populism in the Nineties, by Steve Kornacki
The Reform Party arguably hit its peak in 1999-2000 with the 1998 Midterm Elections, a “chaotic” election full of three-way races that saw neither the GOP nor the Democrats hold a majority in either house and saw Reform Representatives and Senators and slash-reform Stripebacks holding the balance of power. It was an era that saw Reform in a privileged position as Kingmakers and Deal-brokers, saw Reform interests elevated and implemented, and shook up the foundations of the two-party system. But it was also the beginning of the end of the Reform party’s brief explosion onto the national scene as a separate entity.
Reform and Stripeback Representatives and Senators proved consequential in the Welfare Reform compromises that helped lead to a slight budget surplus[2]. They proved critical in setting up the commission on Medicare efficiency lead by Senator John Breaux of Louisiana, with a package to be voted on by the end of Gore’s second term. Alas, filibuster threats and opposition within the party, including by VP Gephardt (who some accuse of worrying more about avoiding controversy in the lead-up to 2000), watered down many of the bolder platforms and put off any raise in the full benefits age until after 2010. Similar issues watered down Social Security Reform (such as Social Security “choice”). Still, reforms were implemented, such as income-based minimum guaranteed contributions in the Social Security Fund, with any surplus going into private investments to help “fund” the program and support long-term solvency[3].
Reform efforts at Election Reform, including a doomed Amendment to end the Electoral College, floundered at the national level, though they succeeded in launching an Electoral Reform Committee that in turn saw many of its proposals (such as open primaries and ranked choice voting) implemented in New England, Alaska, the West, and other Reform havens. Reform also implemented versions of the so-called “New York System” of fusion ballots, allowing for the creation of more “Stripeback” candidates.
Reform proved critical in passing the McCain-Ferraro Act that reformed campaign finance and tightened rules on investment and insider trading by US politicians. However, GOP opposition spearheaded by Dick Armey killed an attempt at forcing disclosure of all campaign donors.
Reform also proved critical in killing Gore’s attempts to get the Kyoto Protocol ratified (they called it “Inequitable”), though the Gore Administration signed the Protocol and committed the US to meet the projected climate goals anyway, which the GGA had put the US well on track to achieve already.
But the 2000 election would end that brief Golden Age. Reform Presidential candidate Jesse Ventura would be locked out of the Presidential Debates by the major parties[4], see Pat Buchannan whittle away some of his “Reform” votes, see many State Reform parties instead back Gephardt, and thus failed to even break 1% of the popular vote. Straight Reform candidates would also lose ground at the local level, increasingly being seen as spoilers rather than serious contenders. Reform would lose three seats in the House while breaking even in the Senate. And an increasing percentage of the victorious “Reform” candidates were Stripebacks, rather than straight Reform.
The Barnyard, the Bucks, the Flamingos, and the Wolverines would thus peak in 1999/2000 and start to decline, while the future of Reform belonged to the Stripebacks.
(Image source Dreamstime)
The “winner takes all” nature of US politics inevitably benefits a two-party system, even despite the inroads that Reform and other Third Parties have made in many States thanks to ranked choice ballots and open primaries. As such, third-party disrupters like Reform tend either to burn out quickly or – rarely – replace one of the earlier dominant parties, like how the Republicans replaced the Whigs and the Whigs replaced the Federalists. As such, with Reform being a shaky partnership between such disparate factions as New England moderates, frontier populists, angry nativists, blue collar workers, and various fringe elements united only by Ross Perot’s cult of personality, it was natural that the “Cockeyed Caucus” would fall apart without him.
Ventura’s poor showing in 2000, in part due to the machinations of the Presidential Debate Committee and other overt acts of political sabotage, in part due to Reform’s “luster” wearing off after far too many years making noise on the sidelines without showing results, was the final nail in the Reform coffin, all but ending the Reform Party as a national organization. Instead, the rump regional Reform organizations would take a cue from the strange world of New York politics and forge political alliances with one of the local major parties, usually the disadvantaged one, in the way of the Conservative and Liberal Parties of New York.
Instead of becoming America’s “Third Party” or displacing one of the Big Two, Reform would have a different future: as a political “tag” for centrist or non-mainstream politicians.
As the two political parties began their shifts to the edges and the national parties repeatedly established “litmus test” criteria for membership, typically on wedge issues like abortion or guns, “putting a stripe on your back” became an easy way for a regional politician to stand out from the national party. A rural Democrat in Wyoming could declare their support for the Second Amendment and their opposition to Abortion Rights and not be cast out of the national party simply by tacking “-Ref” to their name (and indeed the Democratic Party in Wyoming, Idaho, Montana, and the Dakotas would basically merge with Reform and keep the National Party at arm’s length going forward). A Republican in New England could likewise express their support for Roe v. Wade and willingness to accept Gun Control measures (and indeed Connecticut, Massachusetts, and other Northeastern Republicans increasingly went Stripe-back, as did many California GOP). Only a handful of “Dedicated Reform” politicians would remain going forward into the 21st Century, such as Maine’s Angus King, who so reliably caucused with the Democrats that they stopped running candidates against him.
The National Reform Party increasingly became, like the Greens or the Libertarians, a “protest vote party” where those wishing to “send a signal to both sides” would cast their ballot. Reform in swing states like Florida or Georgia became a non-starter as razor-thin races discouraged protest voting and encouraged candidates of both parties to run towards the middle. Instead, Reform in these states began to become more of a political action group whose endorsement was coveted by both sides and could make the difference in tight races, or as a pressure group who could use the threat of running a spoiler third candidate as a threat to gain concessions from the likely winner. Reform stopped running Presidential candidates in 2008 after again failing to break 1% of the vote in 2004.
But for the Stripebacks, Reform was their ticket to relevance in increasingly monochrome states, a “free pass” to break with the national caucus on an issue-by-issue basis and publicly call out the actions of the party leadership without fear of losing national party campaign funds. “Reform” could thus continue to raise a stink just by affixing the hyphen to a standing member of one of the two major parties, and remain a force in US politics, even as the National Reform Party faded from relevance.
And having the Reform moniker even allowed one to openly break with their own caucus within the government with less fear of retaliation by the national party. It even occasionally allowed for caucuses of Stripebacks to lead temporary cross-aisle “centrist coalitions” to pass bills that would have otherwise been blocked by the party fringe on either side, which became increasingly critical for compromises on critical but contested areas like budgets and judiciary nominations.
As a result, the ultimate legacy of Ross Perot’s Reform Party and the US Populist Surge of the 1990s became the Stripebacks, and the ultimately Centrist-Populist “Cross-aisle Caucus” that they created.
[1]
@jpj1421 and I ran through several scenarios, and, simply put, Gephardt was a hard candidate to beat given the political and social situation. The economy is good, world events are challenging but not catastrophic, there are no major domestic issues for the GOP to hammer on save for standard grievance/identity politics and wedge issues, and there’s no real serious political baggage or scandal here to weigh him down. Jeb Bush and John McCain both lose to him in most matchup scenarios. George W. Bush likely loses too if he’d followed our timeline’s path (he only barely beat Gore in our timeline!). Quayle poled about equal to them, so don’t blame this on Quayle. Simply put, Gore, a very uninspiring candidate, only lost in our timeline by just over 500 votes in a single highly-contested State (Florida) and that was with a huge grassroots surge in Conservative politics following the highly-controversial Clinton Years and the Republican Revolution. Gore, the boring technocrat, just doesn’t garner the hate to drive reactive turnout. And Gephardt has several advantages here in that he’s got “cred” with both Progressives and with Blue Collar Union “Reagan Democrat” types and even wins over lots of Reform Party types thanks to his Trade Skepticism, meaning that the Rust Belt solidly backs him. He also doesn’t alienate moderates. In all, only a Reagan-caliber candidate is going to beat him, and the GOP in 2000 ain’t got one.
[2] In our timeline Clinton and Gingrich, despite all of their public enmity, worked together on compromise legislation including Welfare Reform that led to a $70 billion surplus. In this timeline much of that surplus goes to fund the Green Grown Act, so we end up roughly breaking even.
[3] Similar efforts nearly led to a “grand compromise” between Clinton and Gingrich on entitlement reform, but the Monica Lewinski affair and subsequent impeachment derailed these efforts.
See here.
[4] As happened to Perot in 1996 in our timeline.